The evil that circles us

Today Leopoldo Lopez had an OpEd piece published in the Washington Post. The piece may seem short on specifics for us here in Venezuela but we are not the audience. The audience is the US political class in its time of trial during primary season, to let them know that on inauguration day the worst problem in the Western Hemisphere awaiting them will be the humanitarian crisis that is starting in Venezuela this past few weeks. The silence of the US has helped a lot Venezuela become a failed state as Lopez letter implies.

Whether Bernie Sanders will burnish his break from ideologies credentials by condemning the Venezuelan regime or Trump will develop an interest about Venezuela besides the beauty pageants remains to be seen. I'd rather use that editorial to muse on the evil that surrounds the people of Venezuela.

Let's start with Leopoldo Lopez in jail now for two years and condemned for a trial that we now know was based on forged evidence. He is not the lone political prisoner though now he is the best known, a cause in himself. The new National Assembly is trying to pass an amnesty law that is targeted at freeing these people and you should hear the vituperation from the regime's as to that law, announcing without a shade of self doubt, no beam in their eyes,  that it would promote crime in Venezuela.

But we could pass on that, perhaps, on politically motivated vindictive. The problem is that evil sneaks everywhere in the regime. I suppose it all started with the Tascon list of 2003 that split Venezuela in two type of citizens, those against Chavez having from now on a second class status. That list built by killing the vote secrecy is still in use today.

We can remember the multiple violent expropriations, the worse ones in the country side where often people were not even allowed to take their personal belongings. By then the totalitarian nature of the regime's soul could not be hidden anymore.

Then crime went up and up, and jail roles went down and down until the regime allied itself with the jail gangs who operate from the "safety" of the jail for all sorts of racket.

Should I even bother mentioning Venezuela becoming a narco-military regime or is that just a form of business?

But the worst evil was saved for the end, when all of us, chavista voters or staunch opposition alike must suffer lack of food and lack of medicine and the concurrent crime wave.  While the fat high ranking of the regime in all selfishness prove everyday their ignorance of the situation, it is made worse by their denial, and even worse, that they do not care about it. The question is simple and should be asked by anyone; if the regime actually cared about the plight of Venezuelans, would we be in the dire straits we are today? If you have an ounce of integrity you know what the answer is.

Today president Maduro launched in great fanfare a new plan of urban agriculture that is supposed to provide within 100 days 20% of the food intake of the 8 major cities of Venezuela. That this plan is launched at a time of major water shortages in Venezuela cities has not been detected by Maduro and his entourage, Or at least they did not care about it. Failure is certain, the more so in a country that does not like much veggies, and less to work for them. Pretending, in the XXI century, to present an agricultural construct that is a mere throwback to a primitive XIX century in Venezuela when actually privileged people who could lived off their backyard garden is an insult to our intelligence. Now becoming a failed state is an achievement.

To add insult to injury, that new wonder does give birth to a new bureaucracy: National System for Urban and Semi-urban Agriculture that will include a Venezuelan Corporation for Urban and Semi-urban Agriculture. Which gives a new meaning about selling the Tiger hide before killing it....

The ultimate stage of evil is when the torturer starts making fun of its victim. We have reached that stage.

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Electricity shortage horrors

Before mentioning that I was victim last Friday I am going to mention briefly the last electricity horror shortage.  A few years ago, on account of El Niño, Chavez started an ambitious, no expense spared, plan to generate enough thermal electric energy to save us from the vagaries of the Caroni river from which, if well managed, we could get more than three quarters of our electricity. He went on one of his many idiocies implying that too many dams would dry down the "poor" river as an excuse for all the immense delays on the magnificent planning left by previous governments.

The only result of all of this was a stupendous corruption that created the fortunes of people like Derwick and associates and left us today, believe it or not, with an even worse crisis than 5 years ago, and this starting with LESS industrial product than we had then. Read anything from Alek Boyd to convince yourself.

Last Friday it was quimo for my S.O. and the treatment place is in a specialty clinic that occupies a whole story of a building associated with a commercial center. The regime has decided that malls and the like would have mandatory rationing of electricity and would have to close down AC, elevators, escalators and even water pumps for a few hours a day, including during lunch breaks. Just like that.

Unfortunately for us the clinic is attached to a mall and is treated as such, regardless.

We should have realized it would be different when our customary time slot was advanced to 11 AM. When we arrived we were told that any food should be purchased by 12:30 as the elevators would be shut down until 3 PM. Any physiological necessity should also be taken care off by that time because within minutes the pipes would empty and there would be no more running water until sometime after 3 PM. In a medical facility.

Even though we were late due to frantic traffic, which I guess in retrospective was probably due to people trying to get things done before noon, we managed to get the S.O. hooked up before 11:30 and all the sundries and my sushi set in place by noon so I could eat it watching the drip... Note; I always get sushi because I think that for the other patients it is the least offensive food, visually and olfactory. After all, some of us need to last for several hours.

They had to open the windows but the day not being warm we could manage. Otherwise everything else went normally except for the lack of water. We were done a little bit past 2. They had an elevator called. At least one elevator is available on demand, manually operated for the clinic only. Everybody else on foot. Important as, even if valid, most patients are always somewhat shaken after quimio, which was our case. We reached ground floor but surprise, there is no elevator to go underground to the car. And there was no way the SO could walk down in the dark all that distance... After some discussion I finally left him at one fo the exits, going down only one of the escalators (more difficult than stairs I have you know for a sick person).

The parking was closed. All in the dark except for some of the emergency lights. You discover that the lack of replacement batteries have made parking lots a major hazard in Venezuela in case of fire: there is simply no way to find the exit!!!!!!! At least they disposed several attendants with flashlights but in case of fire?  Of course I was in the last basement. An attendant offered to accompany me but there was enough twilight and I am used to that parking enough that I declined. Unfortunately the last ground had no light. None except for a very distant corner tiny energy light dimming fast. It was not even enough to see my hand! What to do?

With one foot I slowly found what I knew to be the last step. Then, on flat ground, since I knew my car was not too far I hoped for the alarm signal to reach the car. It did and lit up inside the car. I could go slowly to my car but the light was not enough to show any obstacle (and I nearly was done in by one).  Once inside I could drive with my head lights in full and make my way to the toll booth. But the problem came next: the exit I planned to take to pick up my S.O. was closed until 3! And down there was no cell phone signal. And I was not going to have him walk all across the mall to pick him up. Followed a heated argument with an attendant.

Eventually he let me pass though the blocked way letting me know that the electric gate above may not work until 3. But that was not the worst. He explained that the whole ordeal was not a lack of planning from them, that they had no say in what to close down. It was the government itself that came on the first day and started to bring down the breakers themselves!

That is, they did not come and say "listen guys, you are consuming 100 a day. You have to bring that down to 50 a day. You have a week to manage that. Your problem".

They just came the fascist way, turned down whatever they wanted to turn down and that was that. I think that it is in small examples like that, examples that speak by themselves, that you find the real reasons why these people must be expelled from office.

I wonder how one elevator managed to escape altogether. Maybe attendants hid that particular breaker? Maybe one official has a relative on quimo there?

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The regime has decided to formally annul the National Assembly of Venezuela

Taking advantage of the half week (after Carnival holidays), that tomorrow there is no session in the Assembly, the high court , TSJ, decided that the vote to reject the Emergency decree of last January was not valid and thus the decree has been valid since January 14.

Voilá!

You are going to need a lot of pennies for my thoughts.  Let's get going.


First, the factual aspect of it. Clearly, as you will understand in the second part of this post, this is a political move of the regime, a dangerous move that can only hurt itself. See, by downgrading the Assembly to nothing the regime will assume the full cost of the political and economic crisis which is getting worse by the minute. Then again, at this point the regime is beyond caring.

So, which are the facts? A technicality. According to the court head, the assembly should have voted down the decree within 48 hours and not within a week. It is on TV record that the chair of the Assembly verified about the week delay and the government did not object to it, and agreed to send the ministers to present their case. They did not, but that is not the point. That they agreed to show up and then did not show up was a tacit admission that the week delay was valid and thus under no circumstances can the high court intervene to defend one of the parties who suddenly, AFTER the fact, may secretly decide to appeal a decision. In other words, this has been a conspiracy where no parts was asked to present its counter argument. The servile high court of the regime emitted the political decision that was requested and that was that.

Let's also add that the Assembly offered to discuss a new version of the decree if the government wished to do so, even the same one if the gouvernement had the courtesy to be more explicit on its proposals. We heard only chirps in the woods.

Before we go into consequences and speculations let's discuss as a second item the political message in that decision.  From the preexisting laws Maduro and his regime could pretty much do as they pleased on the economic front. The decree was merely to project the image of "doing something" about shortages, and probably justifying blocking access to savings to try to control inflation somehow, and establishing ration cards, amen of creating absolutely idiotic and absolutely corrupt food distribution schemes like the ones already tried out in Yaracuy. Thus the decree was a provocation from the start to please the bruised ego of the radical left after the dramatic loss of December vote. It was also the start of some plan but that one was not quite congealed as we can deduct simultaneous from the very vagueness and extremism of the decree. Part of the information required to develop that plan was study the resolve of the Assembly, the reaction of the country, and how the crisis was going on (I suppose).

Clearly the Assembly was going to do its work, was not breaking down, was going to put its pressure on the regime slowly but surely. A clear message had to be sent and that the ruling of today IS the message. The TSJ will turn down ANY mesure the regime does not want, on ANY pretext. Legality has nothing to do with it. In case you do not quite understand this, it is the very last step before a "auto golpe" or self coup, where the executive power takes over all the powers of the Assembly in particular the ones from the purse (economy and the like) and control (hearings of ministers). In short Maduro has announced tonight that, together with the president of the TSJ Gladys Gutierrez, he will decide what of the Assembly will go and what will not go. He has created for himself a veto power that does not exist in the constitution and cannot be voted down because, well, it does not exist. Il suffisait d'y penser!

By the same token any attempt at modifying the Constitution will also be voted down by the TSJ... Even a consultative referendum.  And forget about reviewing old laws if the regime does not want to. A dictatorship, let's say it so.

And so we reach the third part, the why and what next.

Let me start by the what next because it is fast. Clearly this requires a strong response as it is unacceptable. We will wait for the Assembly leadership for that, it is their job. For example the idiotic Samper has announced a trip to Venezuela to bring his happy findings of December. He should be put to task. The National Assembly can go as far as requesting an emergency meeting of the OAS. It can vote a motion to censor our girl Gladys. Etc...  But what will probably happen may be quite different. The reaction of the TSJ is not quite a surprise. I am surprised in that it came this way and relatively late, but a reaction was coming. After all, I think already when I left on a trip I heard some ranting from Cabello to that effect. Or just when I cam back, or I forgot.

The regime is playing chaos as a strategy for survival (wait for an upcoming post) so we should count this ruling as bad but with a very nice silver lining: the regime is taking full political responsibility for all the economical, food and medical implosion taking place right now, under our eyes. The Assembly lone power now is to do its job, to act according to ethics, to grind its teeth and to keep telling to people that the regime is wrong and that there will be consequences for their actions and for the people that apply these actions.  The economic crisis will do the rest when hungry crowds start looting and the army finally has to step in to fight the gangs of thugs that support the regime coordinating these looting actions.

Finally the why (to be expanded this week end).

The country is imploding. I saw that myself, with my own eyes, after only ten days away (rep. intended).

Yesterday they changed the chemotherapy schedule for my S.O. because the mandatory electric shortages demand that patients are all rushed up faster than what normal care demands because of where the clinic is located and the time they are forced to shut down AC..

I have a new bachaquero. He charges between 2 to 4 times the official rate according to X. But I get, occasional,office delivery of significant supplies, let's say for me, my S.O., his mother, my house keeper in San Felipe (where the situation is way worse than in Caracas), my cleaning lady in Caracas, all people that cannot stand in line and who I do not charge full price. In fact I do not charge them, I pay their work with it, and they are way happier than with money. My S.O. and Mom I charge them less as their health bills are getting high so it is a discrete form to help them I found. They are simply out of touch, for obvious reasons, about the reality of the country. We all have our crosses.

Water comes only twice a week now. But I have a large tank, So in protest I water my lawn. If the regime had made maintenance as previewed, if it had made the investments that were requested and scheduled for 2010 we would not be suffering from the consequences of El Niño. which is a mere excuse as all the money spent in electrical generation through Derwick et al. seems to have been for naught.

Today I tried a new scheme to have "crucial" medicine sent from Europe at a horrendous price and through difficult loops: need to be European, need to have insurance over there, need to prove you cannot find it here, need to prove it is life threatening, etc... The paper work alone could kill you. And I do not know if it will work out, and I feel awfully guilty for those that cannot apply and I am doing this for my S.O. with my savings as his own ones are now gone.

And with all of the above, believe it or not, I still feel like a privileged because I can still afford it. I need to count pennies but I can still allot. So think about those who cannot. Today I helped someone by buying 50 euros at the full dollar today rate . Normally I do not do that but she needed to pay her kids school for the rest of the year.......

And that is the why. The country is sliding into the abyss. The regime knows that default is unavoidable now, if not they can read Nagel, and may be embracing the idea of it. But it is also understanding that there will be a heavy political price to pay. They are willing to pay for it because Maduro and Diosdado and Cilia and Tarek and a few generals know that regime change means jail for themselves. So they prefer to preside over the ruin of a country that they think they thus can control more easily. In their calculation there will be enough oil money for some very basic food items and aspirin, and enough drug money for their creature comforts. They cannot go elsewhere. Not even Cuba, too close from the US of A. And so they need to take out the National Assembly, provoke them into a crisis that justifies in front of "el pueblo" its dissolution and do away with direct suffrage, replaced by indirect suffrage, easier to control. They do not care what the word will think, they will be way too worried about the default to worry about Ramos Allup fate

And thus the actions of the regime these past weeks must be understood according to such parameters. They are aware that they will not recover the fervor of the people. Chavez bought that fervor though lot of goodies, some through real ideologization though outside of a core base some were also in for the money. They cannot count on that anymore. The time for fascism has arrived. Repression, destruction of legality, even their very own already deficient one. Use the distress of the country as an excuse to clamp down and see what happens. The hope for action is that military will cave in and accept to be the repressing agent. If not, then it will have to be the thug gangs that the regime has been promoting all these years that will do the job. They seem able and willing.

Will the whole strategy work?  It may. It may not. More in a coming post this week end..
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Two notes added in proof-

1) In regard of the "why". The recent confrontation with Lorenzo Mendoza may have sped up the decision to procede with the decree. That Polar are the lone products available is a gaping hole in all the conspiracy theories of why the "economic" war is letting the country slowly starve. The expropriation of Polar is something that was a target of that decree and something that the regime needs to do, to bring down the last remaining independent institution in the country, a symbol on how failed the regime is. It also would suicidal but that is probably what the regime wants. Abject poverty for all.

2) And what about the Vice president?

I have a hard time to think that he is part in that show. He was having discrete and difficult contacts with Ramos Allup. Aristobulo Isturriz was named to try to find a way to work with the new Assembly and he knows that such negotiations last weeks and months, in the best cases.  We were even led to believe that some of the appointments of January were to reinforce somewhat the more "moderate" line of Aristobulo, to give it a name.

Clearly that TSJ decision sinks any discussion Aristobulo was trying to have. So two hypothesis.

1) he was making some headway and radicals did not like it and use the TSJ to blow at Aristobulo who will be forced to apply a decree that he knows full well will not work and that he will be forced to take the blame for it. If that is the case I will recommend Aristobulo to start a political crisis by resigning right now, at a press conference, convoked to announce new measures and instead to announce his resignation.

2) he was not making headway, or did not intend to so anyway. So these discussion were to gain time. As such he embraces the TSJ ruling and seals the final break up with the Assembly and walks straight ahead in the constitutional crisis.

I suggest Aristobulo to think carefully about his next move because he is being set up, no matter which is the hypothesis he is working on. But if I were to advise him, I would resign and create a scandal.

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La mendacidad de Elias Jaua

Es con usted, diputado Jaua

Leo su respuesta a lo que usted llama "infame el editorial de El Nacional".

Yo no voy a entrar en el debate de si la diputada Tamara Adrian oyó lo que ella oyó. Ella sabrá defenderse; y muy bien lo hará porque ella no tuvo nunca los apoyos que usted tuvo y que le permitieron tirar piedras toda su vida quedando impune.

Tampoco voy a especular si la diputada Adriana D'Elia es una lesbiana. Eso es irrelevante, y ni me importa como a usted no debería importarle lo que la gente hace con su vida privada mientras no afecte a otros. Le recuerdo que su vida privada si afecta a otros cuando, por ejemplo, usted hace que la República cubra los costos de viaje de su niñera bien armada.

Le escribo porque leo en su respuesta a El Nacional estas cosas:

"los dueños de El Nacional otra vez desatan su odio sistemático contra mi persona"
"desarrollan sus prejuicios raciales y de clase en mi contra"
"No he proferido insulto, y mucho menos de carácter homofóbico,contra la diputada Adriana D'Elia a quien respeto como ser humano"
"Nunca he hecho uso de la palabra 'mariposones' acuñada [...]por el diputado Henry Ramos Allup para referirse a los dirigentes del partido Primero Justicia. ¿Quien es el homofóbico?"
"mi reconocimiento, basado en el principio constitucional de la igualdad ciudadana, a sus derechos pero sobre todo en el valor humano y cristiano [...] que profeso"

El problema es que para decir tales cosas uno necesita tener credibilidad y usted no la tiene.

Lei bien el editorial de El Nacional al cual usted se refiere y no veo donde ellos hacen mención de su raza o de su clase. A menos que eso esté implicado, en su criterio, por las palabras "hombre nuevo" y "encapuchamiento".  Si es así le ruego me explique porque yo lo desconozco. En cuanto al odio sistemático no estaría de más que usted lo sustente porque a mi me parece que bastante gente ha criticado sus acciones, sistemáticamente. En eso El Nacional no tendría ningún privilegio. Como figura pública le recomiendo que en esta nueva era se vaya acostumbrando de una buena vez a la crítica sin tomarla personalmente.

Cuando usted escribe que respeta a la diputada D'Elia "como ser humano" usted me va a disculpar pero eso disminuye su credibilidad. Respetar como ser humano es lo menos que se le exige a quien sea, y más que eso a un diputado de la República. Es su deber respetar a la gente como personas, no solamente como seres humanos. Es su deber dar el respeto que usted exige para si mismo.

Acusar a Ramos Allup de homofóbico no resuelve su problema. Que él lo sea no le puede servir en ningún caso de excusa. Entiendo que la mentalidad del chavismo es echarle la culpa a quien sea de sus errores, sea la cuarta república, sea el imperio y se quien sabe que otra bobada como la fulana guerra económica. Pero los errores al final son suyos y usted tiene que asumirlos. El asunto aquí es que su credibilidad esta anulada de antemano por pertenecer a una corriente política de tendencia homofóbica muy bien documentada. ¿Se recordará usted del infame "patiquines maricones de Primero Justica" lanzado por Juan Barreto en el 2004? ¿O las constantes alusiones gay en contra de Henrique Capriles durante las campañas de 2012 y 2013? Sin hablar de la campaña de Cabello contra Mendoza en Miranda donde con sorna el argumentaba Cabello que por fin Miranda tendría primera dama. Sin referirme al historial de la prensa, solamente en mi blog la etiqueta "homofóbia" le conducirá a una serie de artículos donde explico mi posición sobre la homofóbia chavista, empezando en julio del 2004.

Pero personalmente lo que a mi más me molestó en su respuesta a el Nacional fue la ultima parte porque a mi, personalmente, me consta que eso es mentira, que usted no cree en la igualdad ciudadana. Reconozco que siendo yo "sexo diverso", parece que la palabra gay no le gusta a su gente ya que prefieren lo genérico en aras de castigar mas fácilmente lo específico, no he luchado como hubiese debido hacerlo. Pero mi lucha tuvo que ser primero para los valores de todos, desde la libertad de prensa e información hasta la libertad de disfrutar del esfuerzo de mi trabajo. ¿De que me sirven derechos gay si los derechos humanos básicos de la constitución del 99 ni se cumplen y menos se respetan?

Lo que a mi me ha dolido en lo personal leyendo su respuesta es que cuando usted era canciller de la república bolivariana se emitió un comunicado a las embajadas de los países que reconocían las uniones y matrimonios igualitarios prohibiendo tramitar dichas uniones. Aunque sean entre ciudadanos de estos países. Ni siquiera explicando a los venezolanos casándose con un ciudadano de estos países que ese matrimonio/unión no tenia validez alguna en Venezuela. Tengo doble nacionalidad pero no he podido hacer beneficiar a mi pareja de dos décadas de ventajas que podría ofrecerle a través de mi otro pais porque Venezuela no solamente lo prohibe pero no ofrece esas ventajas. Ustedes ni lavan ni prestan la batea.

Por lo tanto, para mi, su concepto de igualdad ciudadana no existe. A menos que sea que todos hagamos cola para poder comer, aunque de seguro tampoco eso se aplica a usted y su familia.

Le sugiero diputado Jaua que usted empiece por disculparse y a actuar como diputado para promover lo que usted nunca quiso hacer cuando podía hacerlo como ministro. Es justicia. ¿O será que se escudará con el "cristiano [...] que profeso"" para también justificar su homofóbia e intolerancia?

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Nota: observo que El Nacional publicó su respuesta, su derecho a replica, privilegio que nadie ofendido por VTV o cualquier medio del gobierno. Medios pagados con los impuestos de todos, le recuerdo.

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Nationalization of Venezuelan Economy + Bolivarian Corralito

The regime has decided this noon to ask the National Assembly to grant it a decree of "economic emergency" for 60 days, extendable to 60 more. The objective is to face the "economic war" which is what made it lose the election. That economic war modality has never been explained but we were told it was waged on the regime by these nasty capitalist. So it is time to put them under real control.

Minister Salas as he read
the infamous decree against
the economic war, whatever
that is/was/will

Here follows the highlights as I weigh them and at the end I will attempt an interpretation. Note: this decree was issued BEFORE Maduro goes to the Assembly for his State of the Nation speech in a few minutes. I am not commenting all articles.

Article 2.

1- Because of inflation the regime has some budgetary crumbs, it seems, and they will use them at discretion, without need to go through the assembly. The excuse is to maintain the "misiones" working.

2- Confirmation that resources may be used within the budget or outside of it to guarantee welfare of "el pueblo".

4- Let's not bother with bidding.

6- Exempt certain goods from importation permits.

7- Suspend for some the requirements for obtaining foreign currency for import (What foreign currency? Oil barrel is at 24).

8- Demand that public and private enterprise produce in full capacity to provide the markets. Yes, that is right, I kid you not. This is my favorite!  There is no raw material, there is no USD to import it, The harvest is in the dumps this year. And we are ORDERED to increase production.

9- The nationalization part. My translation and emphasis:

el ejecutivo nacional podrá requerir de las personas naturales o jurídicas, propietarias o poseedoras, los medios de transporte, canales de distribución, centros de acopio, beneficiadoras, y demás establecimientos, bienes inmuebles y demás mercancías que resulten necesarios para garantizar el abastecimiento oportuno de alimentos a los venezolanos, así como otros bienes de primera necesidad.

The executive branch will be able to request from private persons or businesses, owners or users (?) the means to carry, distribution systems, regional distribution warehouses, animal processing plants and other assorted establishments, real estate and other products that may be necessary to guarantee the prompt supply of food to Venezuelasn, as well as other basic necessities goods. 

In short, the regime can take over ANY business that works with food, produces it, distributes it, sells it. ANY, courtesy of the vagueness in it. In theory it will return them to their owners at the end of the emergency but in which conditions? Will they pay for what they used, wore out, etc...?

10- Bring in foreign investment and jump start exportations. Yeah, right.... In 60 days....  With full trust....

Article 3. Maduro can dictate other measures that will be necessary to protect living standards of families, children, teenagers and elderly. I kid you not, the redaction is much worse in Spanish.

Article 4. The "corralito" article. Simply: in rather vague terms the regime gets the right to control the flow of money inside the country, establishing limits for financial and banking transaction. In short: you cannot dispose of your money as you will, you need a permit to buy and sell. Note: "corralito" was what Argentina did in 2002 crisis where people could not get money out of their bank beyond a certain amount, or Greece a few months ago.

Article 6. People are not invited, they are summoned to participate in this economic offensive. the list of people that must partake include artists, sportsmen, youths, students and what not. In short ALL of US. Otherwise? My translation:

a la consecución de los más altos objetivos de consolidación de la patria productiva y económicamente independiente, como fiel manifestación de la cohesión existente entre los venezolanos en el desarrollo económico nacional y contra las acciones ejercidas por factores internos y externos que pretenden la desestabilización económica del país.

to the pursuit of the highest objectives of the productive fatherland economically independent, as the faithful manifestation of the existing cohesion among Venezuelans for the national economic development and against the actions undertaken by internal and external factors who pretend to destabilize the country's economy.

Important note: in the summoned "pueblo" there is no call to any established authority, be it governors, mayors, etc...  But all the parallel organizations such as consejos comunales, parlamentos comunales, etc are summoned and will be the enforcers. That is, the only organizations called to support the emergency decree are all the structures controlled by the PSUV that have no legal basis but are given it now for their action, whether they have any legality or legitimacy. Mob rule in the works. Paramilitary colectivos to the rescue.

Article 8 and 10. They contradict themselves. The regime announces that as soon as the decree is published in the official journal, it can be applied. However the Assembly has 8 days to consider it. Is the regime planning already some demagogic action during these few days, like taking over Polar?

My interpretation.

This decree is clear and direct announcement that the regime will take over all what it needs to take to make things work. The excuse for that is that nothing about the actual food shortage crisis is its fault, that all has been caused by the private sector. Just like that, point blank.

Of course, the decree is unworkable, it is only the paroxysm of a failed model of outrageous controls that have resulted in a worthless currency, massive food and medicine shortages and even loss of independence. If this decree is enforced total ruin awaits Venezuela.

Why is a regime that has lost an election a month ago under the clear perception by the voters that the crisis is due to the mismanagement of Maduro and the extensive corruption?

One thing is that the regime truly does not understand why it lost the December election. Thus they are trying through a nuclear bomb decree to prove that they have been right all along. And along the way establish rationing under the excuse of the emergency, even if not directly noted in the decree.

Another thing is that the regime is preparing for an election, more likely to change Madruo or to change the constitution to get rid of the National Assembly.

But what I think is going on is that the regime, or rather the Maduro faction has decided to gamble it all on this provocation. Because it is a provocation, the National Assembly cannot possibly approve of such an emergency decree that not only will void its authority but will block any reform it may wish to make. Never mind that the Assembly cannot allow Maduro to put the blame on the Assembly. Not only there will be a rejection but it will have to be forceful.

From this confrontation there are only two possible results: Maduro leaves office or a coup is perpetrated.

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Note: the economic war theory has been advanced a few months into Maduro's tenure. The Dakazo was one of his first campaigns. Apparently business deliberately hide their production, or paralyze them so that prices increase and people get upset and blame the regime.

And yet there is no credible case where such a political/economic strategy has been proven except in the case of some isolated stores which at most had supplies for a couple of weeks stashed away. The big players have always been irreproachable no matter how many controls the government has put on them. I think of the Polar Group, for example. Let me put it this way: if Polar were successful in hiding corn flour it would need dozens of gigantic warehouses. Where would those ones be? How come in two years the regime could not find any?

What makes it worse is that it si public knowledge that all the industries and lands expropriated under Chavez are either closed, unproductive, deficient and what not.

The regime had no other option but to invent an imaginary economic war to cover its ineptness and today it is forging ahead even if the risk is a total collapse in a matter of weeks.  Not months, weeks, as in 4,5 weeks.

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Judicial coup for dummies

So I am late into the fray, just learning about an hour ago what the High Court has done today. See, I live in reality. I had a delicate situation with my S.O. and, besides appointments, part of the day was to look all around for rather simple antibiotics, and pain killers and anti inflammatory pills. We found two of them, not the ones recommended by the physician albeit acceptably less suitable alternatives.

In a waiting room I got wind of the declarations of the new minister for urban agriculture. I found the video tonight (at end of this entry). Indeed, she wants everyone to grab a tin can, and empty bottle, put some dirt and recycle the roots of any vegetable we can, starting with green onions.

Today we also learned that Venezuela oil barrel has reached its lowest price since 2002.

Recycling the root system of green onions? Can I plant pot instead so as to escape reality?

All of this to give you a little context for what comes next.


The battle between the electoral hall of the high court (e-TSJ for short) and democracy keeps apace. The e-TSJ has decided today (even though they should be on judicial holiday) that seating the representatives for Amazonas was illegal and puts the National Assembly into contempt. And thus ANY decision of the N.A. is void and will be.

There is no point in going back into the detail of the contentious. For recall what the e-TSJ has done is illegal for many reasons: all appeals in front of the electoral board CNE have not been exhausted; there is no legal emergency; even with three seats less the N.A. can vote on 99% of laws it  needs to vote on; the e-TSJ first ruling came during judicial holiday; the e-TSJ has no right to void an election without some form of trial; etc.; etc.; and without mentioning that the allegations of fraud committed in Amazonas, even if true, pale in comparison to the accusations of fraud for every chavista candidate elsewhere.

Clearly, electoral justice is the least concern of the e-TSJ. The objective is elsewhere.

The objective is to stop the N.A. work before it has a chance to start hearings and voting laws that will limit or erase the power of the chavista elite. Complicated by whatever internal fight chavismo is having.

That is why a faction of chavismo, more than likely led by Diosdado Cabello as Maduro has more to lose in such a confrontation, uses the courts to undo the Assembly election. Going to the point of threatening the dismissal of the N.A. with the TSJ taking upo its functions until X.

The reactions of the N.A. were equally previsible. And the N.A. vice chair stated that they were not going to respect a "political" ruling of the e-TSJ.

It is also an excellent opportunity to remember a December 12, 2014 article in El Pais from Spain, English section where it is explained that

reviewed 45,474 sentences issued between 2004 and 2014 by the political, electoral and constitutional chambers at Venezuela’s Supreme Courts - in charge of government oversight. The group published the results in a new book, El TSJ al servicio de la revolución (Editorial Galipan), which it is distributing in the country in an almost clandestine manner. Analysts and journalists see this thick book as a gem. The main conclusion of this long essay is that the Supreme Court has never delivered a sentence against the government.

My emphasis. I rest my case, the e-TSJ ruling has nothing to do with electoral justice. This is a judicial coup in progress where a partisan named court will undo the popular will exerted through perfectly legal, even if biased, elections.

That is all.

So, what next?

Certain argue that the N.A. and Ramos Allup acted harshly, that after all they could start doing a few things with the 109 other seats. That they should have waited even if it left Amazonas without representation at a crucial time.

Others, like the ones rejecting the ruling, think that there is no other way but to confront.

I side with the later for various reasons.

- The e-TSJ "ruling" is not the first, it is already the second and there is already clear evidence that more is coming. The ex-chair of the TSJ has said it so, anticipating today's e-ruling (I have written a lot on her, Luisa Estela Morales Lamuño, in this blog).

- Avoiding a confrontation is useless. Postponing may make sense but when the regime attacks first you need to reply and up the ante.

- This is a thugocracy/kleptocracy/drug-lord-ocracy. Legal elegance is something that flies way above their heads. Accepting any thing from them is just the same as validating their crimes and pushing them forward.

A coup, violence, is unavoidable because the leader of the violent is Diosdado Cabello and he sees in his future an orange suit. Unfortunately there are dozens that also are looking at different ways to wear orange. If anyone disagrees with me they are welcome to explain why I am wrong.

Considering the reality that I live in I am painfully aware that what the regime seeks is to delay any action from the National Assembly and this will be leaving el pueblo, me, with neither food nor medicine. But, my friends, confronting or not the regime IS NOT going to speed up the solution to our problems. We can be only sure of one thing: as long as Maduro and Cabello are in charge, nothing, absolutely nothing will get fixed. They cannot fix it. They cannot care less.

Might as well go for it.

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There is an older video of this weirdo saying that she would pinch the balls of any gringo landing in Venezuela during the uproar of the DEA putting narco-personnel on its lists. I suppose her agricultural project include also planting pot at home?

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A confusing but clarifying week

With the National Assembly swearing-in show and the collateral that came next Venezuela has experienced one of its most confusing weeks - but maybe one of its best ones-

Saddamization

The thread at the N.A. is simple. Chavismo could not find a way to stop its coming Götterdämmerung. So they came, saw and left. They could not avoid their first encounter with a free press in about a decade. Some of the questions were truly embarrassing like when a journalist was finally able to stand on the way of Cilia Flores and ask her about her narco-nephews. Not her nephews in jail in the US awaiting trial, but her NARCO-nephews, straight. This is what happens when you ignore and insult the press for so many years: they get so frustrated that they lose any sense of measure or respect. And poor Cilia, the "first fighter", the wife of president Maduro, had to pick up her pace to escape.

But this bringing down of Cilia was just the beginning of an iconoclastic binge. In the early morning next day the new chair of the N.A. Ramos Allup brought down all the portraits of Chavez that overwhelmed the decor. For good measure he also had brought down the computer created image of Bolivar out of his 200 year old remains. This necrophiliac endeavor from Chavez had become the new official portrait of Bolivar although there is a an existing portrait which was approved by Bolivar himself.

This carefully orchestrated act of Ramos Allup had the desired effect, an overreaction of chavismo which will cost it dearly. It included a lengthy military show in cadena (forced simultaneous broadcast on ALL networks and radios) to "desagravio"  redress/repair the insult made to Bolivar even though the bulk of the actions was in defense of Chavez who is, apparently, more insulted than Bolivar.

It is hard to imagine that the totalitarian mentality of these people could be exposed so well in such short notice. General Padrino wanted to impress on us that the computer Bolivar was now encrusted deep into the heart of all of us. How could it be otherwise, he implied. And this meant that Bolivar was insulted through insults to Chavez as the favorite "insigne" son of Bolivar (even if he never got 50% of the electorate to vote for him, even with his higher scores in votes cast). That there is no food or medicine after Chavez is not making a dent in these people who keep their idols up.  Hence the brilliant move of Ramos Allup, starting to tear down that mental construct that is blocking any progress for the country.

More details emerged to confirm that need. The mayor of Caracas announced that the whole city will be papered over with copies of the discarded portraits. Funds for that will apparently not be a problem. As to where will he find the paper and ink for that endeavour remains to be explained. Other chavistas suggested that all chavista households should have well displayed Bolivar and Chavez, a new version of the yellow star I suppose for those who do not harbor the "insigne" badge.

Meanwhile Ramos Allup forges ahead and went alone to Quinta Crespo market for his week's groceries, to the great wonderment of el pueblo not used to see chavista nomenklatura shop on their own (even if he had to leave in a hurry after red storm troopers arrived). Whatever criticism people throw at Ramos, and many are from the opposition itslef, we must thank him for breaking a taboo. The idolization of Chavez will never be the same.

The government thread is briefer: they have lost the capacity to set the political agenda and their race is to keep up with what the MUD and R.A. do. I am not going into the expected Greek chorus that want already to nullify the N.A. and jail R.A. I am just going to look at what happened at Miraflores. There Maduro named a new cabinet which kept military in the main positions, and the ones that move the most money. Some cryptic moderates under the guise of people with experience in the private sector were appointed. And to balance it all a social sciences major with nebulous ideas on economy and zero experience is the alleged new star.

But the new cabinet is more interesting through what is missing: some of Cabello heavy weights even though he still has his wife as tourism minister. Some see in that a real weakening of Cabello who, stripped of his power base at the N.A. and the refusal by the army to follow him in a coup on December 6, may be just on his way out. Perhaps even as a token offering to the DEA in a near future? All is possible but I also concur that Cabello's day are counted unless he finds new support that these days could only come from forgiveness of an opposition that he has brutalized for too long. In a way Cabello aura of invincibility is another icon that was brought down this week. After all since December 6 he was threatening and threatening and yet in the end he had to surrender the N.A. seat and could not stop its first measures, ridiculing himself by threatening the N.A. to leave it without funding.

As the first true week of the Assembly looms we may expect more surprises, the more so that it seems resolved in promoting first an amnesty law which could be the final showdown into forcing the regime to compromise,or to surrender. The final release of Leopoldo Lopez in the streets maybe too much for the regime to endure without breaking down. We will see.

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Tales of a military temper tantrum

What has inflamed the 2.0 tonight is the late afternoon address of Padrino Lopez, in cadena nonetheless. A quick video analysis follows.

The act at Chavez grave is a "desagravio", that is an act of redress, in this case of the memory of Bolivar, Chavez and the honor of Maduro. We get that in the first seconds. Of course this is a response of yesterday Ramos Allup iconoclast act or removing the images of Chavez and the fake Bolivar at the National Assembly. The fake Bolivar is a "reconstruction" based on the skull of Bolivar that Chavez got through profanation. So, from the start poor Padrino ends up being quite ridiculous defending a 200 yer old reconstruction which present Bolivar with more "negroid" characters than the portrait that Bolivar himself approved of.  But this bolivarian Venezuela....

In all truth here the outrage is against chasing Chavez from the National Assembly hallways where he should have never been to begin with. So the alleged Bolivar insult is used as an excuse to justify the defense of 17 years of ideologizing Chavez demi-god status.

Observe the actual camera focus at 40'' on the red foulard with the 4F which is the apology of the failed coup of 1992. Right there this is unconstitutional, illegal, traitorous and what next. Objectively there is no need to listen to the rest of the Padrino crap, but we must.

1:09 Padrino places Cilia flores above all the other representatives of chavismo. Some pigs are more equal than others.

2:03 Observe the panoramic of a fat military. Priceless.

2:35 The idiot taking pictures behind Padrino in what is supposed to be a most solemn occasion. They really cannot behave. Ever.

3:09 According to Padrino the whole fatherland has been "ultrajada" insulted, violated, etc... So he is the avenger.




3:30 He insists on Bolivar being the one offended. Go and see the Ramos Allup video again and tell me about that.

3:50 We finally get to Chavez "hijo insigne de bolivar y de la patria también" notable child of Bolivar and of the fatherland too. Note the order.........

Follows an amalgam as to Ramos Allup "ultraje" to the armed forces. Sure, the idol was toppled! Including biblical references of Jesus saying that you do not fight Satan with Satan. And suddenly at 6:30 Padrino approves of this, that they will not fight Satan with Satan.

7:45 close up of the fake Bolivar as he is cited that good manners make good laws. Really? Under Chavez?

Follows a dissertation about the preservation of Venezuelan history. never mind that Chavez rewrote it.

9:09 Freeze there and notice that the 3 army stars and the title of the communique Padrino then reads. You can see the title there.  By then you notice that the event has been very carefully planned.

Follows a series of banalities noting that Maduro is the embodiment of the state so he was also offended.

11;00 Padrino starts justifying the invented Bolivar of Chavez, starting that this image has been accepted by all (not by me anyway, but I do not want to make this post about me).

Follows more bullshit about how Venezuela became bolivarian.

11:35 Anti capitalist jab.

14:15 In defense of Misiones.

14:44 "Bolivar y Chavez", the amalgam is now complete. They cannot be separated and are both the embodiment of the fatherland. There you go!

15:33 The attempt at amalgam of Maduro to Chavez and Bolivar starts.

15:58 Padrino ratifies the army unconditional support to Maduro. Really? How often will that support need to be ratified? One wonders.......

16:59 "conciencia supraracional", supra rational conscience? What the f...? Is this the intellectual excuse for a coup?

And then, surprisingly, Padrino finishes this totalitarian speech with an olive branch of sort stating that all have Venezuelan best interests at heart and that such scenes should be avoided so as not to foster further divisions.  I, for one, read into this that Padrino has not read the speech he truly wanted to read. As to what that speech would be, I'd rather not speculate.

I do not know what this all means. However there are a few things that I can advance without fear of beeing too far from the mark.

First, for the armed forces living in inbred chavista and Cuban propaganda the idea that some people actually did not like Chavez at all is a surprise. For some reason they have equated a heavy imposed silence on us as a tacit acceptation of Chavez grandeur. It is not, and they are in shock.

Second, the actions of Ramos Allup have hit at the center of chavismo core beliefs, all that was used to justify years of looting and human rights violations in the name of a higher cause. That mental idol has also taken a hit.

Third, the regime suddenly realizes that the opposition means business and that a confrontation of powers is not a sure success for the regime. A rule in warfare is that you need to know your enemy. Watching the reaction of chavismo it seems that the opposition knows its enemy plexus much better than expected.

Still, Ramos Allup wishes he would have had it as easy as Leo the Isaurian.

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A new geography of chavismo [Updated]

When political movements suffer a major set back they either go extinct or they reorganize for better days. This means that inside factions shift, balances change and the result of these glissando will be extinction or renewal. With events these last two weeks we can start seeing how this is shaping.


The regime lost bad on December 6 but not everyone inside lost the same. The big loser is Diosdado Cabello; he lost his soap box, a lot of protection and his ability to rule through fear. Maduro lost a lot for sure as the election was a referendum on his tenure. But he is still president while Diosdado is, well, not much more than a minority party representative. If for the sake of survival the rivalry between the two men has been put in the side burner a year ago when polls started to look bad, that rivalry still exists and the need for survival is now desperate.

With the army party slightly on the side as they are not willing to pay the political price of 17 years of misrule, with the corrupt chavista narco elite blamed internally for the catastrophic economic crisis, it is the hour of the radicals and they are going for it.

Maduro formed in Cuba and the Castro's viceroy is naturally fond of radicals. He did not advance them before because chavismo was a coalition of interests where displacing a single group could have dangerous snowball effects. But now he can because the other factions are stunned not only because they lost on 6D so badly but also that the people did not revolt to expel the MUD invaders and restore chavismo to revolutionary glory. I am not making this up, read their own words in the press.

The thing about radicals is that even if they lose a battle or an election they do not care much as to the why and how. They just care about pursuing their agenda at all costs since they truly believe that through its completion people will finally see the goodness of their proposal. Be it radical chavismo, IS or Marine Le Pen. Thus yesterday we saw Maduro finally imposing a cabinet more to his liking where the economy tsar/star is pure lefty, but someone without even a formal Marxist formation. Luis Salas is a prophet. He has had visions that inflation does not exist, that gas is not subsided, that Polar hides months of national production in a small warehouse somewhere. As a prophet now in charge he will demonstrate that his fantasy world was the truth that others failed to see and thus failed to seek.

If some of the chavista factions may be stunned they are not necessary totally oblivious. The army sent back to its barracks keeps a few seats, in particular the defense minister Padrino who was the guy that refused to commit electoral fraud a month ago. Some more sensible heads are still around such as the new vice president or a couple of economy ministers offering a strange balance to Salas. It should be noted that the new vice, Aristobulo Isturiz, would be a great president for a short transition in between Maduro departure and the election of its successor. In fact, Isturiz could well be the best candidate chavismo has to offer but is smart enough not to accept this late in life such a poisoned gift. President for a few weeks will suffice him.

Thus go the moves inside chavismo, the first serious realignment since the civilian faction was ousted when Ramirez and Giordani were expelled. Now the fight in earnest between the radicals and the bolibourgeois narco elite supported by part of the army has started.

We will see if some inside the PSUV have the nerve to form a third faction to avoid the final demise of the Chavez party.

I have my doubts.

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Update.
Rafael Poleo thinks that the new cabinet and the iconoclast wars are a strategy to remove Diosdado Cabello once and for all. I am not mentioning this because I concur, I am just noting it to illustrate the wide swath of speculation going on.

El nuevo gabinete y el discurso de Padrino son las pinzas conque sacan del poder a Diosdado.

— Rafael Poleo (@PoleoRafael) January 8, 2016

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Weimar or Harare?

Or was that a suicidal note from the regime?

I wrote earlier about the recent "economic policies" of the regime. But I need to add the latest from today, the de facto privatization of the Central Bank of Venezuela, BCV, to Nicolas Maduro and his camarilla.


In what is a gross constitutional violation Maduro modified through law decree the rules over the BCV. His enabling law did not allow him to do so, and the constitution either. Period.

Which are the modifications?

First, the National Assembly, NA, cannot name representatives to the BCV board of directors, they are now named all by the executive branch. That is right, the executive decides on its own on monetary and fiscal policies. No outside input or supervision needed.

Second, the new BCV is under no obligation to make its statistics public, that is, it will send them to the NA if the executive power allows for it. And apparently even then the NA cannot comment on them. One wonders how can the NA legislate if the most important statistics of the country remain hidden from view.

Third, the BCV can now lend to the regime whatever money it needs, and the conditions of such lending may remain confidential if the regime justifies of any crisis. That is, the banknote printing machine depends on whatever petty cash Maduro needs at any given day.

I need not insult the intelligence of the reader that if such a measure is not immediately overturned by the new NA we are going straight ahead into the wall of hyperinflation. Our currency is as of today is, well, worthless (today 847 to 1 USD, I bet you 1,500 by early February). Hello Weimar! Greetings Harare! We may just beat your records!

This suicidal action of the regime, because when hyperinflation comes in I have no idea how they will stop the people from Catia and 23 de Enero to come and burn down Miraflores Palace, has three clear intentions.

One is to avoid asking the new NA for budgets and their extension. Electoral needs will be covered directly through borrowing at the BCV, for example.

The second intention is to delay as much as possible the publication of the catastrophic economic news of 2015 which may well speed up the downfall of the regime.

The third intention, last but not least, principal in my eyes, is to hide the corruption, looting and mismanagement of the country under Maduro. When the numbers come in, when the NA is able to open hearings on some ministers like Rodriguez Torres, Osorio or the BCV director Merentes, these people will be unable to hide their responsibilities and penal measures will have to be required on the spot. Or these people will have to do a coup which would be hard to succeed considering the reasons why they will ask el pueblo for support. Henceforth the neutralization and privatization of the BCV.

I should add a fourth ancillary reason. Funding for Cuba will be very difficult through the NA. There will be a need to hide the looting that needs to maintain alive the Castro criminals. Blocking access to the BCV not only hides what was already given to Cuba but will allow for a year or two more of partial financing of Cuba. Then again since the country is all but bankrupt I wonder how much money can Cuba get anyway.

This, for me, is the worst possible thing the regime could do to itself. It is simply unthinkable and betrays the desperation of the regime and its willingness to disregard any rule, any constitutional obligation. But it also may show that the army is abandoning it. If they need to resort to packing courts and hiding the money it is because they cannot do a coup. Or so I hope for the sake of all of us.

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The inevitable confrontation: let's begin by unseating a few representatives

As I have been writing through December in any possible way that I could come up with, the confrontation between the regime and the opposition new National Assembly is inevitable. And started in all earnest today. By demanding that almost a dozen MUD representative election is to be questioned, the regime has deprived the new majority of its supernumerary majority of 2/3 which would have allowed it to change some of the worst and more repressive and manipulative laws approved under Chavez. Namely the laws that ensure the regime's near dictatorial nature such as freedom of expression and control of the judiciary by the regime (absolute, 100% control by the way as nobody remembers the last time the regime lost a case in the high court TSJ).

True, the Assembly still preserves the 3/5 super-majority that it needs to control fiscal aspects of the regime, but the ones that matter, the ones that can bring back democracy to Venezuela, are, for the time being, lost.  Let's look at some details.

The regime uses two excuses to justify that up to a dozen of the newly elected representatives should not be seated. Note: such massive annulment is unprecedented in Venezuela since regular elections started in 1958, the more so that the regime controls tightly the electoral system which makes it implausible the theory that the opposition could commit fraud at election time (see OAS secretary Almagro 18 pages letter to Tibisay Lucena, head of the electoral board CNE).

The first motive is that in a few districts the amount of nil votes is larger than the margin of victory of the opposition candidate. In the eyes of the regime PSUV vehicle this mean that the real will of the people has not been expressed. In short: the regime does not recognize the possibility of the nil vote.

The first line of criticism against such a view is that if the nil vote needs to be taken into account then there should be no abstention and everyone should be obliged to vote. An obligation, by the way, that chavismo removed in the Constitution of 1999. The second immediate objection is that there is no way to say which way the nil vote would have gone if these people had been "obliged" to make a choice. At least in that part of the ruling the representatives are not unseated outright but the TSJ has opened the door to repeat the election in those district without any justifiable reason, going over the attributions of the CNE which should decide on such matters BEFORE the TSJ does. That is, if you consider that the CNE did not give you justice then you go to the high court of the country. The regime simply uses its stronghold on the judicial power to dictate the resolutions it needs to be dictated, bypassing whatever needs to be bypassed, starting with the will of the people.

The second motive is that apparently in the state of Amazonas, in the Wild South of the country, there may have been cases of vote buying. First, let's note the absolute cynicism of the regime who has made it an institutional practice to buy vote and blackmail public employees in voting for the regime, as they did in Amazonas. After the vote we have Maduro himself on record saying that since people did not vote for him he did not see any point in keeping building housing for them. We have the director of electrical service in Venezuela firing people suspected of not having voted for the regime. We have the documented distributions of goodies such as tablets, before the election. But even if we assume that there was indeed vote buying by the Amazonas governor who seats with the opposition, how do you know the people blackmailed into voting for you did so in the end? After all the vote is secret EVEN in Amazonas; and in other areas where the regime exerted huge pressure it lost the election anyway. For example in ALL of Caracas districts. Thus vote "buying" is no guarantee of vote "getting".

Let's go a little further in the vote buying supposition. Before you write a sentence to unseat an elected representative for Amazonas, which the TSJ just did, you need to have an investigation, possibly a trial, definitely real verifiable evidence. None of these things exist to this writing, we only have declarations of the PSUV direction with an illegal phone tapping which authenticity has yet to be established.  I will go further, you need to prove that the elected representatives actually worked directly at vote buying. It is quite conceivable that a third party with interest in the electoral result may have bought the vote behind the scenes but that is no reason to punish FIRST the elected official, without a trial, even a fake trial.

I trust that with these very simple arguments stated above it is quite clear for the reader that what is going on is a judicial coup to deny the genuine expression of the people of Venezuela in rejecting the regime. Period.

What can the opposition do?

It started by the easiest way offered by the hurried desperation of the regime: it decided to demand that the justices in charge of that sentence be declared as unfit for conflict of interests. See, one of the judges is someone who was a PSUV representative in the outgoing Assembly and was hurriedly, and illegally, appointed judge a week ago. Clearly, such a judge, member of the PSUV until a very few days ago, cannot be fair and impartial. And more like that.

The opposition has also other choices. It can go international and has already enough evidence to require that the OAS applies the sanctions previewed in its democracy chart. That is, demand that Venezuela be not recognized anymore as a functional democracy. Just with the precedent of the 18 page letter of OAS secretary Almagro it is near impossible that the regime wins its case. A letter has already been sent to various organizations.

However international help, if it comes, is slow. Meanwhile at home the choices are not as clear. The Assembly may decide to seat the questioned deputies anyway and thus enter in a direct power confrontation. The TSJ may disband the New Assembly for contempt, etc. etc......

The fact of the matter is that the regime has decided to use any way it can to annul the MUD victory. And that is that. Recent evidence? Maduro is using the remaining two days of his enabling law to dictate more control measures to limit the scope of action of the new Assembly. He also said that he could not care less about the new "burguesa" assembly, that he was going against the "capitalismo salvaje"

In case you have any doubt of the totalitarian mentality of the regime there is that clip from yesterday when on live TV a Maduro supporter said that any deserter of chavismo should be put down with a bullet though the head, gesture included. Maduro laughed and told him that such things cannot be said on live TV, which implies that off camera chavismo has no problem using violent and foul language to discuss the fate of its opponents/deserters/traitors. You can see the complete video to truly measure the nature of these people here, if your Spanish allows (the shooting gesture is clearer in the long version).



Friends, it is going to get worse before it gets better.

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Somebody home?

I wonder if anyone is aware of the chasm ahead. From what I can see it would seem like no, nobody is taking notice. But then again I may be wrong. Hopefully.

Chavo-madurismo in overdrive

I write "chavo-madurismo" because including all of chavismo is not accurate at this time. There are enough voices inside chavismo that have decided to speak up and who think that genuinely and strategically it is better to acknowledge the electoral defeat and rebuild first chavismo before attempting to counter the opposition. Note: these are not democratic voices, these are people that are aware that they have lost a majority and who are simply surprised by the result and think that it is a mere historical accident and that a little bit of polish will be enough to return to full power for el pueblo.

The chavo-madurismo is as such a faction inside chavismo that has no time nor intention to change anything. Thus they are in an overdrive to conserve their power, privileges and legal immunity. The last one, legal immunity is the motor of that group (by the way, General Reverol may be officially indicted in US courts this week). Too compromised in corruption human rights violations and drug trafficking they know very well that their future will flounder fast with a mere cursory audit of their tenure in office. Thus for them it is out of question to allow that a new assembly can audit them. Period.

All what chavo-madurismo is trying to do to avoid its fate (rigging of high court, creating para legal structures and what not in the three weeks before January 5) will not stand legal review and will lead to an inevitable confrontation that will play in international arena. See, if the gained control at the National Assembly is voided by force, then it is enough for the new chair of the Assembly to demand to the OAS to apply its Democracy Chart. This time around, with heavy weights on board like Argentina, the Venezuela crisis will be made a world crisis. Add the humanitarian side and there you go.

Because while castro-chavo-madurismo fights recklessly for its survival, at all costs, this happens:

Tras la muerte de niños con Cancer este titular enajena: "Quimioterapias que trajo el gobierno son ineficaces" pic.twitter.com/qVZg9rIEJo

— Nelson Bocaranda S. (@NelsonBocaranda) December 16, 2015

The chimio treatments imported for children ARE NOT working. Anyone home to answer for that?

The opposition seems preoccupied elsewhere

While chavo-madurismo is in overdrive the opposition does not  seem in a hurry to take charge.

On one side we have a Capriles who thinks his strategy was the one that allowed the opposition to win a majority, namely that the Assembly was elected solely to solve material problems for the people. Thus he places himself squarely as the rightful spokesperson for the new majority. A strategy equally wrong since 1) the new assembly cannot be the direct actor in improving the fate of el pueblo,  the gouvernement is still in charge of that no matter what as even the new laws application will depend on the good will of the regime, 2) that even if it could do so, the solutions to be written down are not of easy or fast application, 3) not all agree in the priorities that Capriles demands and 4) his demands are possibly unrealistic in the actual context where the regime is applying brute force.

The fact of the matter is that the opposition victory is born on many parameter that include the unrest of early 2014, the discredit of the regime since the 2014 repression, the economic crisis and the protest vote as a reaction, and also the offering of Capriles. But by far not alone by the non confrontational offering of Capriles, the more so that the regime is getting into open confrontation mode.

This explain why the newly elected representatives are more worried about deciding who will chair the coming assembly, and who will hold such and such commission rather than mounting an effective platform to reply to the regime recent attacks. Never mind starting to explain to the country that there is no money for anything when there are people inside chavismo that blithely state the the new assembly will refuse to vote the constant special credits that the executive demands for its social programs.

One is also allowed to wonder whether there is somebody home in charge. Some are noticing this early absence of leadership in the opposition.

And yet the opposition immediate priorities are simple. Considering that a confrontation is inevitable the opposition must from now announce that all measures current mesures taken by the regime will be voided on day first, that the CNE renewal will be conducted immediately and that the amnesty law will be the first law voted. If the regime seeks confrontation, we will give it in our terms, in an area where the opposition is unimpeachable, at least overseas.

In short, the opposition must take a grip of the only defensive tools it can get: fair elections (if needed soon), political leaders free on the streets from jail or exile, partial recuperation of freedom of information and press. Or is it that the political agenda of people like, say, Capriles is more important than the national agenda at a time where we need to find a side that will be able to negotiate the import of food and medicine that are required in 2016 for us not suffer more than necessary?

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The Macri effect

One week ago Argentina elected a new president, the first certifiably peronist free in decades. As expected there will be changes in Argentina foreign policy. What was less expected is the speed at which president elect Macri started those changes, more than two weeks before being sworn in. To begin with, of the few people allowed on the election night stand, one was Leopoldo Lopez wife, Lilian Tintori. This made it to the opening news of CNNSpanish...

¡Plop! Café CÑN empieza su cobertura de resultado Argentino con abrazo de @liliantintori y @mauriciomacri en tarima pic.twitter.com/t2NkUB7x0e

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) November 23, 2015

So what now?


The first thing to note is that Macri means what he said. He repeated it twice on his morning after first press conference.  Other countries are taking notice and are not amused, like Uruguay. To which Macri replied stating point blank that human right violations were public and notorious in Venezuela and it was up to other countries to chose interest over ethics. In Venezuela they took a few days to acknowledge the hit, hoping, I suppose, that Dilma or somebody would call Macri to ask him to shut up. When nothing more but very gauche declarations like the one from Uruguay came, the regime finally reacted. National Assembly chair Diosdado Cabello called Macri a fascist (it takes one to know one, I suppose).  And president Maduro, not to be left behind, went as far as saying that the Argentinian people were ready to raise against Macri (interesting statement since he just got elected, is not sworn in yet,but then again Maduro was never suspected of being a democrat).

And yet, for of his apparent democratic ethics Macri thinks more about Argentina interests than those of Venezuela. He knows that a battle in Mercosur to evict Venezuela is lost because Brazil and Uruguay are too involved with Venezuela corruption and Venezuela owes them too much money. Macri's target is not only the increasingly abhorrent regime of Venezuela, it is Mercosur itself.

Mercosur is failing since Lula reached power. It has become for Brazil something like its private economic zone and as such things like true economic integration and political developments have been sub-ordained to Brazil's interests. The devastating Argentina crisis 13 years ago, and the very light weight of Uruguay and Paraguay made that possible. In other words, with the fraudulent incorporation of Venezuela Mercosur is going nowhere, and Macri seems to have no patience with that. In fact, Macri is looking towards relations with the Pacific Alliance which would favor Argentina more as its economy is more complementary to the P.A. needs than Brazil's one. If Mercosur fails to tame Venezuela it will be a perfect excuse for Macri to start taking its distances with it.

There is also more than Mercosur in the target, there is also the useless UNASUR, a presidential left self protection club for South America. Note that the the swearing in of Macri is on December 10, just when an eventual election fraud crisis in Venezuela would be at its apex. Apparently Macri has chosen his new foreign minister for her experience even though he did not know here personally. He gave her an agenda where two points were nonnegotiable: his pressure on Venezuela and the end of Argentina's relations with Iran. Clearly UNASUR received a notification that any unjustified support to Venezuela will not be approved by Macri and such a division could well mean also the end of the useless UNASUR.

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The banality of evil, Caracas style

Tonight I twitted this:

Oyendo Nieves me la paso pensando en Hanna Arendt y la banalidad del mal. #ConcluFiscal

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) October 28, 2015

In English: Listening to {prosecutor} Nieves I keep thinking of Hannah Arendt and the banality of evil.

One of the top prosecutors in the Leopoldo Lopez show trial has defected to the US and is now saying that the whole operation against Lopez was a scam, that the intention was to put him away for the election of 2015 and more. In fact Nieves went as far as to say, more or less, that the order to arrest Lopez already existed before the events for which he was finally arrested in February 2014.


Franklin Nieves was tonight in the top CÑNe rating show of Fernando del Rincon. Mr. del Rincon rocketed from a CNNE anchor to his own nightly talk show, Conclusiones, as a consequence of his daring reports on Venezuela through the first half of 2014. He has become the journalist to go for any trouble in Latin America, and the specialist on Venezuela, much loved by the opposition, and much more reviled by the regime.

I am not going into the details of what Nieves said (for those who read Spanish you can visit my Tweeter time line of Tuesday night). In short, he stated that all the evidence against Lopez was fabricated, that he received orders to prosecute anyway on those fake evidences, that all knew about that in the regime, that Diosdado Cabello himself was supervising the first orders and that he fooled the Lopez family in making them believe that if Lopez surrendered nicely a deal would be reached. He accused directly Maduro and Cabello and some of the top officials at the state prosecuting office in such a way that the regime will have to do better than just using the worn out line "he is a liar, paid by the nemesis of the revolution" (which he may well be for all that I know, but that is not the point). There is a situation now that will make supporting the regime almost impossible for some of its allies.

No, my interest is elsewhere. First, let's us start with the one with easiest access: why is the US covering for all those defectors? Is it a strategy to encourage them to defect the regime so as to build a case against its corrupt narco officials? In that case, how come indictments and active prosecutions are not coming through faster? In short, why are the US giving some (minor) credit to some of the accusations the regime hurls at them? I am writing that because informed people know better, know that the regime is indeed a rotten corrupt system, that is not investigated by the US alone. But too many use the people's ignorance and misinformation, even inside the opposition, in such ways that it helps the regime case. I am also writing this so that readers realize that I am not in a blind rage as I type.

There is some confusing evil above, but there is real evil next.

What has struck me more was the composure of Nieves during the whole interview, even as del Rincon was trying not to break down under the shock of having all of his antidemocratic accusations against the regime thus validated.

That made me think of Hanna Arendt, the Eichman trial, the basic nature of totalitarianism the way she explained, creating "the banality of evil".  At least Arendt was writing her seminal books based on people following orders. I suppose that concentration camp guards did not have access to Tweeter to get contrasting news to what the Reich told them everyday.  Even if pathetic, the defenses of "I was just following orders" " I did not know" "Nobody told me anything, nobody knew" could make one doubt on occasion if the lines were pronounced then with an empty enough glance.

But with Nieves such excuses cannot apply. Nieves tonight told us he knew what he was doing all along was wrong, was a crime, was an abuse of Human Rights. He knew all along that the regime wanted Lopez jailed, found guilty while it figured out, I imagine, a final solution to the Lopez problem.

Nieves knew and yet he did. And I do not buy much his crocodile tears at seeing Lopez little girl go to the same school as the prosecutor's orphan maker girl being too much for him and making him decide to defect.

What was shocking tonight is that all the actors were following orders, indeed, but knowing full well that the orders were wrong. In the end it does not really matter whether Cabello is the one that gave the original order, what matters here is that the chavista regime has been a totalitarian regime for quite a while as the behavior of the people at the nation's prosecution office show. This is way beyond debating whether the regime can be described as a dictatorship. This is a neo-totalitarian system as I have long ago coined it as a tag for some of this blog entries.

In the end one is left perplexed in trying to figure which is the worst evil. The ones giving orders? The ones executing it? The ones confessing to them without much trouble? And thus it all becomes banal.

PS: interview now up for those who understand Spanish

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Regime gains? Opposition gains? Lopez gains?

The guilty verdict on Leopoldo Lopez was expected though one would have thought that the maximum penalty would not have been decided. At any rate, guilty or free, the decision yesterday by the regime to tell judge Barreiros to condemn Lopez is not going to change much on the events to come. What it does convincingly is marking the moment where the regime stops gingerly crossing over the line between dictatorship and the totalitarian state. Gingerly no more.

Anything but freeing Lopez would not have improved the international regime standing now at junk bond level. Any condemnation, no matter how short the sentence, was equally unacceptable because a guilty verdict on thought crime is unacceptable in civilized world. Any guilty verdict is the clear statement of the regime that politicians will be dealt with through "crime" sentences to ban them from office. Who needs a gulag when a mere sentence disposes of your opponents for a few years in jail and for a life time once out?

So, why is the regime risking such an international condemnation, even though it does not seem to care about that a bit, as witnesses the Colombian border crisis?


Any gain perceived by the regime is strictly internal, safe the historical apologists from Red Ken to the ineffable Eva Golinger. I suppose that now they will be able to state without batting an eye that Lopez is guilty. And it will work to a point. All outside in Venezuela have a sense that justice in Venezuela is not great. But few can grasp how perverted the system is. Thus when a propagandist at Russia Today like Eva Golinger states that Lopez is guilty and has been condemned to 14 years of jail even if you have a doubt about the Venezuelan judicial system you will think that surely Lopez must have done something even if the sentence is overly harsh. A meager compensation when you consider that the Eva Golingers of the world are now quite discredited outside of the few dark caves where they seek refuge.

The "benefits" must be strictly internal, thus. Which may they be?

As an electoral ploy it can only mobilize better the hard core of chavismo. Yesterday a colectivo did attack a peaceful protest resulting with one death through cardiac failure. But the renewed radicalization of the nut wing of chavismo has the advantage at improving the options of the "bring in the vote" machine.  Plain coercion as before has not worked in 2013, now chavismo needs actual threats and ferrying of timorate electors. At best this may help chavismo limit the hemorrhage of votes but it will not help them gain new electors. Attitudes like yesterday castigating civil protests or chanting the hopes that Lopez gets 400 year sentence do not make you new friends.

As a demobilizing tool for the opposition it has a limited use. At best it will scare some opposition leaders that do not want to go to jail, but the bulk knows quite well that they must keep the fight because the slammer is their destiny sooner or later. I think personally that condemning Lopez is in fact an incentive for the opposition voter to be more active. But the Cuban inspired regime applies old recipes in a new world of Twitter.

As a tool to create violence and thus get an excuse to suspend elections is far from certain. So far there is no evidence that the opposition will resort to violence. Lopez himself is calling for peace and electoral activism as the best and fastest way to get out of jail, and annul the unjust sentence.

Clearly I see no real advantage for the regime in condemning Lopez to 14 years. The international commendation has been quite vocal today, faster than usual. Peace still reigns in Venezuela and I do not see much spontaneous chavista celebration...

The only advantage that I can see is internal to chavismo. Someone had to make a show of force to prove to one faction that he is the boss. I, for one, have a hard time imagining that Cubans demanded this from Maduro, or at least with a much shorter sentence. Doing so must be the way to announce that we have entered totalitarianism, officially. The other suspect is Diosdado Cabello who, besides his resentment against anything educated smart and fancy, may have wanted to condemn Lopez to blame this on Maduro.

Whatever it is, those who participated in that show trial have put their names first in the list of those who will need to suffer through a Venezuelan Nuremberg when the day shall come. I do not want to be seen as a poseur by using the N word, but the crimes committed by the regime this recent weeks qualify the holders to a trial at The Hague. Period.

There is only one winner yesterday: Leopoldo Lopez. Write it down.

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Note to Obama and Santos: appeasing thugs NEVER works

The Venezuela-Colombian border crisis should have been a fantastic opportunity to put the Venezuelan narco-regime on notice. Instead it serves as show case on how the appeasement policies of Obama and Santos are sinking fast.

The crisis was an absolutely artificial creation of the Venezuelan regime, increasingly taxed by its faults. As polls plummet for the regime when crucial elections are scheduled for December 6, this one has done all what it can to sabotage them. One offensive was to go straight ahead and jail major opposition figures, bar from running other, gerrymander further the districts, increase censorship and try to bankrupt the scant remaining free press. Elections? Sure! Just try to campaign! However it was an uphill battle to regain the favor of its electors, the only real way to win elections. Since the economy has tanked there is only one option left to rekindle the love of the chavista voter: chauvinistic nationalism, redundancy intended.

First there was a renewed anti US anti Obama drive. This one floundered when Havana and Washington started real talks and petered out at the recent OAS general assembly when Maduro got to see Obama without cameras for a brief moment, long enough for Obama to talk him down.

It seems thus that the "millions" of anti Obama signatures "freely collected" and validated without scruples by the "electoral authorities" were not enough to raise polls for a durable hold. So Maduro sought a conflict with Guyana over maritime and territorial claims. The only result of that came with a further loss of the Venezuelan case; and that the supposedly meek supporters of Venezuela in CARICOM went Guyana way without batting an eyelash. Isolation is thy name, Maduro.

Having been defeated in the imaginary northern border with the US of A and the Eastern border of Guyana there were only two borders left. The one in the South with Brazil is far and dicey although it seems the regime will try something. But the Western border with Colombia was ripe with existing excuses, or fertile grounds to plant new ones.

There are all sorts of theories on how the pretext came about. Some say that it all started from a rivalry between two narco-gangs in Venezuela, the one of the "Soles" and the one of "Guajira", both pointed out as being at least partially controlled by different wings of the army. Others say that it was a mere rivalry between gangs controlling the heavy contraband system towards Colombia, courtesy of the artificially deflated prices of Venezuelan goods. Others advance that it was a way to get rid of Tachira governor rumored to be in talks with "transition" proposals. Some even go as far as saying the whole show is just to put pressure on Santos who may extradite to the US compromising witnesses of the narco-regime in Caracas. None of these pretexts exclude the others, by the way.

Clearly, something as crazed as that, with damning images of human rights abuses as Colombians in Venezuela are rudely expelled when not leaving in a hurry motu proprio, should have been a bonus, a golden opportunity for Colombian and US diplomacy to read a writ to Venezuela. Unfortunately the errors of Santos and Obama policies toward Venezuela's regime are now paid, most likely under Cuban direction. Which have been these mistakes?

Obama's mistakes come from opening to Cuba without proper reciprocity.  Thinking that making the first step toward a totalitarian regime will bring concessions is a mistake that the West should have learned once and for all in 1938 while drinking beer in Munich. Certainly I approved of Obama's initiatives since everything else tried before by the US has failed; more by lack of will than actual vices or virtues of any legislation. But one thing is to approve the initial gesture, another thing is to approve the mechanism chosen. The result is that as soon as Cuba realized that the big bucks were not coming fast the Castro's regime started increasing repression and moving its pieces elsewhere. Extortion is the natural state for these people and that Obama and Kerry thought it would be different this time around is simply bedeviling.

The second mistake was sending Shannon to discuss with Maduro and Cabello without anything in exchange. Or so it seems so far. True, it is supposed that the release of half a dozen of political prisoners would be a result of that, along the call for elections which was suspiciously delayed. But the released prisoners are under house arrest and suffer all sorts of impediments while elections can be cancelled even on election day. The real result of these "negotiations" is that thug in chief, Diosdado Cabello, pointed out by many as a drug capo, feels vindicated and now indispensable. So as any good thug would do he has increased his attacks on people who dare criticize him, has decided to bankrupt once and for all the remaining free newspapers, and more. So much for Shannon effectiveness.

Colombia's president, Santos, mistakes started 5 years ago when he "befriended Chavez".  It has been downhill since. Chavez under a reprieve as Uribe's parting shot was exposing all FARC training camp inside Venezuela, played nice and stroked Santos ego in that he could indeed bring the FARC to serious negotiations after having been the Uribe's defense minister in charge of blowing them out. Which he nearly did, by the way and may have been able to complete had he wanted to. Under the excuse that Venezuela's role was crucial to the eventual success of Havana's Santos-FARC talks, the Santos administration made all sorts of concessions to the Venezuelan regime, most despicably by handing over to Caracas drug kingpins and political exiles.

Sure enough the FARC is playing Santos through and though. Its first success was to force Santos into a difficult reelection. This conservative, liberal right president has had to ally himself to the fading left of Colombia to get reelected and thus he has unnecessarily promoted its recovery. After reelection the FARC has become even more belligerent, and now it is trying to use the border crisis offering itself as the best guarantor against contraband and the alleged paramilitary infiltration inside Venezuela, as if Venezuela was not the main promoter of paramilitary groups like the colectivos, pranes .....

How can Santos and his ever more idiotic looking foreign minister Holguin whose appeasing smiles and seduction to Maduro are now blowing up to her face have lost the political coup offered to them on a silver tray?

First, the delayed response. Uribe was promptly at the border with Venezuela while Holguin sought a "meeting" with the Venezuelan foreign minister, the insufferable hack sister of Caracas mayor and inventor of all electoral frauds. While Holguin was giving Rodriguez a propaganda platform to accuse Colombia in its own country, the images of Colombians wading the river Tachira with their scarce belongings made front pages.

Santos waited for a week to go to the border and this late in the game he had to go populist and offer all sorts of goodies to calm down the natives. But it was too late, Colombian public opinion was united, and not around Santos. Even ex president Gaviria questioned the participation of Colombia to fakes like UNASUR who clearly do not wish to offend whatsoever the susceptibility of Maduro and co.  To add insult to injury Maduro kept giving fake handouts in Venezuela, declared falsely that scarcity was over thanks to his policies in Tachira, threatened to push the border blockade all along the Venezuelan border and flew to Vietnam. Cabello on his own decided to stir a little bit of trouble with the Brazil border attacking garimpeiros as if did not know they  had been creating ecological devastation since Chavez came to office!

I think that we are assisting to the undoing of Obama and Santos foreign schemes. I, for one, dearly hope that this is all part of a master plan to muzzle once and for all the rogue regimes of Havana and Caracas. But I am not holding my breath whatsoever.

Luckily for Santos and Obama, they do not have to worry about reelection anymore. Others will sort out the debris.

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