And they shall go to jail

I am not sure if people outside Venezuela truly measure how miserable it is to live here. However one thing is certain, the political situation makes it impossible for things to improve any time soon. Even more certain are the odds of things getting worse. The photo below is National Assembly chair Ramos Allup showing on TV the picture of the defense minister Padrino Lopez in bowed deference to Fidel. This is the clearest sign that the confrontation with the regime is reaching pitch fork level.

Why is this picture, which has widely circulated in the web months ago, back in front?

For this you need to come back to what this blog has gotten tired to repeat over and over: the regime cannot, CANNOT, leave office because this would mean that dozens if not hundreds of regime luminaries will find their way to trials and jail sentences, some as far as reaching The Hague tribunal (it is my opinion that, at the very least, Maduro's criminal actions against the well being of the Venezuelan population make him worthy of sitting at the accused bench of The Hague international court for human rights).

If you do not get this, or disagree with this, then you really have wasted your time reading this blog over the years.

The Games of Thrones played in real life here is as confusing as the fictional one, and probably many a political career would be demised as in the series, hopefully with not as much blood though I am now certain that some will be spilled..

To try to understand this let's start by the game played by the National Assembly. It's only weapon is legality, voting laws that bring answers to the plight of people. The process is long and tedious and exasperating not only to the radical minds inside the opposition but even to more rational spirits like a dear friend from overseas with whom I had a long talk yesterday.  It is indeed hard to keep cool in front of the onslaught suffered by the Assembly.

The regime indeed is annulling every law the Assembly passes. Even if the political cost for the regime may be high. For example we are waiting for the oncoming, announced, annulment of two laws. One is designed to allow quick and full ownership to those who got public housing in recent years. This is a No-No for the regime as that housing is sort of a grant that people can preserve as long as they support the regime. But denying such law goes against the human nature of even many hard core chavistas who, well, like any human being want their very own refuge...

More damaging still are the ridiculous pretension that the "bono alimentación" (kind of a food stamp system) for retired people is too expensive for the regime to accept. To which it was replied immediately that if there is money for weapons then there is money to help retirees living of a pension that is today at 40 USD a month (according to DICOM already in free fall since its creation weeks ago). The problem here is that the regime cannot permit under any circumstances to have the populace believe that they can get stuff outside of Chavez or his appointed heir. I suppose that in the regime mental construct the political price to screw the elderly is preferable to the political price of people starting to think that there is life after chavismo.

I pass on other laws annulled which are more abstract to the point made here. The objective of the regime is to annul the National Assembly. Since this cannot be done easily in front of the public opinion, and because the Assembly has two atomic bombs in reserve, the regime is proceeding to discuss nincompoopy proposals such as an amendment to bring down the Assembly term from 5 years to 60 days. Amen that such a constitutional amendement would have to be voted in a referendum (article 341) that the regime cannot win without massive and thus obvious fraud.

Or go the way of a mere coup and that is that.

Indeed the National Assembly has two bombs that are very dangerous to all, but more to the regime. One is the ability to call for a Constituent Assembly that if it proves effective could result in sweeping away all of the regime office holders (articles 348 and 349).

The other bomb is immediate: the regime is short on cash and the only way to borrow more dollars is to get a favorable vote from the Assembly (as a guarantee to the lender). This one will certainly give it IF AND ONLY IF the regime accounts for how the loan will be spent, monitored through a mechanism that will not be under regime control. Something that is totally unacceptable for an hyper corrupt regime. Will the regime pick bankruptcy? Coup? Negotiation?

I am going for coup even though no one will lend a dollar to the regime in such conditions. A coup would only result in utter misery for the people with the regime's hope to control the populace through control of food. A gamble that at least Maduro, Cabello and their close corrupt entourage are willing to take with the assumption that the army will help killing whatever needs to be killed through heavy repression.

Which brings us to the picture opening this entry.

I, for one, consider that Ramos Allup and the opposition have acted to the best of their abilities. There may be better ways to proceed but NO ONE so far as made the case that there is another strategy for the opposition to corner the regime until this one blows a fuse and close the Assembly, or collapses. Either way, many will have to go to jail...

The pressure over the regime has been gradual but continued and unfaltering. And at each time the regime has shown its dark nature. First the emergency economic decree was rejected but approved through yet another judicial coup. The the courts decided that the National Assembly did not have the right to call for hearings on public servants unless allowed by the regime. Then populists reforms are rejected at political cost for the regime. Then the amnesty Law is now under threat and if the regime rejects it it will result in a strongly welded opposition against the regime. On this last one we had the Defense Minister that chimed in as to his opinion that the Amnesty Law was bad. Not only this is not true, and not of his resort, but coming from someone who is linked to coup mongers that benefited in their time from an amnesty of sorts it is simply an indefensible position.

Ramos Allup thought that the time has come to put the armed forces in front of their duty. Showing the picture of an adoring minister of defense in front of a foreign potentate, publicly, on TV, simply questions the loyalty to the nation, to democracy, of the head of the armed forces.

The implications of this are so obvious that I will dispense the patient but smart reader from further explanations.

Only one comment to close this entry: Padrino Lopez today must regret not to have accepted the massive fraud that Cabello wanted to perpetrate on December 6. I will let you think on that too.

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Extraordinarily newsworthy day in the battle for democracy

I thought already when I was writing the communism decree that the regime wants to pass would be quite something already for a single day. I even started publishing it before I finished or corrected such was my state of discombobulation.  But tonight there is yet two more news, maybe more important because that decree can still be rejected by the Assembly. But apparently there are bigger fishes to fry.

President Maduro finally came tonight for his state of the Union. The speech was long, vapid, misleading when not blurting outrageous lies when vaunting the "successes" of 2015. The excitement came through the fact that he showed up when a few days ago it seemed that the rebelliousness of Diosdado Cabello with the support of some judges could carry the day and send the Assembly into nothingness. This can still happen but I have big doubts tonight about it ever happening.


The Assembly "caved in" and suspended for a while the controversial representatives and thus Cabello and the Court had no other option but to recognize the validity of the Assembly for the time being. Thus showeth up Maduro.

All fine and dandy. The speech is given in cadena, that is, simultaneous mandatory broadcast on all audio visual media. ALL. Important detail for later. The speech lasted for over two jours but I only connected to it through the end, following it on tweeter before (see my time line for highlights in Spanish or English according to assumed public, on the right side of this blog).

Maduro said nothing besides his usual assortment of insults and what not. Yet he seemed rather subdued, a little bit lost. At the end, as expected, he handed the microphone to Ramos Allup as chair of the Assembly which we would have thought would limit himself to pronounce the protocolar farewell. It was not. Ramos Allup launched himself in a big speech.

Now, why was this speech so important, well managed by the way considering the ordeal that today must have been for him today?

You need to know that just like in the US, all powers are represented (5 in Venezuela, 4 of them clapping at any inanity of Maduro; in the US no Justice would be caught dead applauding a president at SOTU!). You need to know that when Ramos Allup took over the cadena continued and the state TV, VTV,which was the only one allowed to transmit live on airwaves remained fixed on Ramos Allup the whole time, probably waiting for the order to cut off, an order that never came. It was the first time in 17 years that the country saw a cadena by someone else than a chavista stating the official line. Thus the fixation and the novelty gave more reach to Ramos Allup than he may have deserved.

Of course the response of Ramos Allup was civil but frequently mischievous in pointing out the flaws in Maduro's speech. But what made the reply to Maduro a hit were the following, in no order of importance:

- VTV and state media attack him all the time, which is OK, he does not care (I have got my mileage he said). What is not OK is that he does not have the right to reply. VTV et.al. addicts cannot pretend to ignore that anymore. The more so that the biggest vilifier of Ramos Allup and the opposotion is Diosdado Cabello show "con el mazo dando".

- He looked at the other three powers and reminded them that the only two sovereign powers, those elected by the people were the president and the Assembly and thus the other three were "derivative" powers. That is pointed at a time when one, the judicial power, is trying to unseat representatives without even the semblant of a trial (never mind of the well documented treacheries of the other two)

- He addressed the attending military top brass and explained them that the Bolivar that Chavez invented IS NOT the historical one, helping his cause with pictures and quotes. He explained that there was no room for ANY president portrait in a National Assembly. He went ahead and told them that the army was not there to do politics and he finished by making it crystal clear that neither Maduro nor him wanted a coup of any type.  Reminding them, by the way, that about two weeks before April 2002 he was on record that there was a military coup in preparation against Chavez.

Now, guess who was the real target of this speech? Maduro? Guess again.

I think that what happened tonight besides revealing to the hard core chavismo what parliamentary democracy is all about, is that Ramos Allup offered his hand to Maduro to deal with the economic crisis together AND, most importantly AND, get rid of Diosdado Cabello who is managing to put everyone against himself without solving a simple problem.

It is of course a big gambit if what I write is right. After all, a reader could reply, Ramos Allup is on record to want to remove Maduro from office in the next 6 months.  But the difference here, clearly expressed tonight, is that Ramos Allup does not have any particular grief against Maduro, he just wants the system gone. So, he implies, we can either prepare an honorable exit for Maduro (resigning or constitutional shortening of the term, a mere referendum would suffice) or a nastier one. The villain here, for all, is Diosdado Cabello. And you could sense that the message had been received in the rather subdued declarations Cabello gave to the press when the ceremony was over.

And since I am speculating might as well go for it. Ramos Allup offer is that if Cabello tones down or retires he will not surrender him to the DEA. As long as he remains in Venezuela in quiet retirement he can enjoy his loot (though I am sure he will be asked to return a portion of the stolen one). The offer to Maduro is that the opposition will help him taking some hard measures but the condition is that power is shared. That is, the judicial illegal nominations be reverted and the electoral board becomes truly neutral. This is the red line. Then if Maduro cannot go all the way with the necessary economic measures he can resign and retire in Venezuela, at least for a while. Or have his term shortened through a constitutional amendment that can be voted on fast, without any campaign needed. And all of this gives time tot he army to clean up its act and pick among themselves the 2-3 generals that must be sacrificed to the DEA so the other can remain free, as long as they do not leave Venezuela.

You know, I have the nagging feeling that the whole show was sort of planned by Ramos and the new Vice President Isturriz...... And probably worked out much better than the two wily coyotes ever hoped it would.

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The first day of the New Assembly

This entry started this morning (see bottom for earlier text) but I decided to edit it and keep it up as a regular entry.

I am sorry to limit my comments on what happened inside the Assembly because I went to the support rally. In spite of the low speed of connections I did manage to have a full report, video included, of what that rally was. Considering that it was early January when everyone is on Holiday, considering that the regime close 4, FOUR, subway stations to force people to walk about 2 KM to attend, considering the threats, I think it was a very successful demonstration. Visit my Instagram account for pics and videos, in particular the police barrier at the end of the march, two blocks before the National Assembly. For those new to Instagram you need to click on the picture for full details and comments.  Better get used to it and open your account, it is the future of micro blogging by eye witness.


As for what happened inside. It was a mess, chavismo trying to disrupt and sabotage whatever they could, sending a drunken opening speaker because it was for the oldest elected representative to open the session and proceed tot he election of the chair, Ramos Allup. Expect more of the like.

On noteworthy moments.

Ramos Allup gave a good speech and made it clear that the opposition got the message, that the regime is going to attack the New Assembly and that they will fight back, including a legal, constitutional, electoral, peaceful removal of Maduro from office in the next 6 months.

Cabello withdrew the PSUV group because supposedly Ramor Allup violated rules. As if he NEVER violated any rule himself.

Cilia Flores, wife of Maduro and representative from Cojedes was asked about her narco-nephews in jail in New York. She walked away with a truly dirty look, first time a journalist was close enough her to ask for the question we all wanted to hear.

Things were said that chavismo did not like. They are not used at how democracy works.

Reuters got it right: Venezuelans used to years of monochromatic to ideological TV could not believe it when in cafes suddenly TV was live with opposition politicians speaking.  It is true, when I drove back home I saw crowds spilling out of cafes!!!!

So there it was for a first rowdy day. But that is that, the opposition is now in charge at the Assembly. There is still the question of the illegally annulled 4 seats. But as wee say in French a chaque jour suffit sa peine.

For those who refuse to get into Instagram

Video of barricade

A video posted by daniel duquenal (@duquenal_at_vnv) on Jan 5, 2016 at 8:12am PST

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I will try to go to the rally in support of the New Assembly. If I succeed I will try to post stuff on Instagram and/or twitter. Links on the right side of this page.

Then again maybe not: I just learned that the subway stations around La Hoyada have been shut down for "security" reasons, which means you need to walk a mile to reach la Hoyada.  They will try to screw us until the bitter end!

We are going for it anyway.

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The decalogue of a new opposition (eventually?) led National Assembly

A thought exercise first. If the MUD opposition alliance gains a majority in the new National Assembly, who is the opposition? Maduro or the MUD?


This being said, when the National Assembly settles in next January which could be the initial measures that can prove new times have come, even if there a simple majority of seats?

Before the swearing in. In no particular order, as they come to mind during my morning coffee.

1) Announce the new directors of ANTV, the C-span of sorts. This network, mostly cable, is one the propaganda tools of the regime. It is also the network that the MUD can reopen to public debate and democracy from day one. Voiding this way the need to buy back one the private networks bought by regime mystery figures. ANTV would go in a few days from the least watched network to the most watched in Venezuela.

2) Announce that control of the Assembly will be all in the hands of the MUD. BUT...  offering two or three commissions to chavismo as a good gesture to start a useful debate. After the sectarian years of Diosdado Cabello at the head, that would improve the political climate greatly, nation wide. Note: that measure can be strengthened by the MUD offering these commissions chairs to PSUV representatives not associated with previous sectarian practices: folks like Cabello or Eekhout cannot chair any commission.

3) Announce before Christmas, or even next week, who will be the new Assembly chair, so as to have a forceful spokesperson to counter regime's last minute treacheries.

4) Announce that any Maduro's initiative before the Assembly is sworn in will be dead on arrival, that is, will not be funded and legally reverted. The simple objective here is to announce regime's treachery before this one is even proposed, countering from the start any propaganda effect.

5) Announce that from day one the press corps will be allowed to monitor live the debates of the Assembly. Yet announcing that the other rules of the Assembly will be kept as is for the first year (to teach the regime representatives a lesson in democracy).

And announce the first laws that will be discussed starting day 1.

6) An amnesty law. Since there is no way to have fair trials the new assembly has to assume a provisional guilty status of the political prisoners until at a later date the unfair and infamous trials can be reversed. By proclaiming an amnesty law the opposition thus in a way recognizes the sentences but also gets to free all political prisoners and even allow the return of many political exiles. Leopoldo Lopez back in the streets with his acquired Mandela status courtesy of the regime clumsiness, will be the nightmare of the executive power of Maduro...

7) A budget reform to guarantee that local financial needs are met as intended. This will strike at the heart of the regime financial muscle. Chavez had managed by all sorts of tricks to deprive the states and city halls of a large chunk of  what constitutionally should have gone to them. On one hand the regime gained a weakening of local authorities and on the other Chavez gained more direct patronage. Yes, such a measure would appear to strengthen the existing large majority of chavista governors, but it will also force then to give to their own opposition city halls the funds they require to function, a dramatic gain for some town halls that the regime has sabotaged to the extreme. Two notes: the regime should willingly sign in such a reform because it will get a more effective help from the local administrations to solve the humanitarian crisis at hand. And the governors have only one year left in their tenure so it will be difficult for them to use that windfall efficiently enough to build a reelection machinery.

8) An administrative reform of the comptrollers office to stop the practice of depriving politicians of their rights without the legal ruling in court: inahabilitaciones. Currently an obscure bureaucrat at the order of the regime can simply forbid so and so to run for election or become a public employee.

9) An anti expropriation bill. This way the recent abuses such as those of SUNDEE, Dakazo and the like will be stopped unless the regime previews a fair return before proceeding to expropriation. A way to restore a minimum of trust to bring back some investments to the country.

10) A bill to review the functioning of the expropriations done before. Those which have been a failure should be returned free of charge (and indemnity for the robbed properties?) to the owners who still want to get them back. If indemnity cannot be offered right now, at least offer them tax breaks for a few years to allow them to restart the business.

I am not including laws to revert some of the ruinous social programs. After all inflation will take care of their undoing and the regime executive privileges would force Maduro's combo to finance them at the very least through less corruption. In fact it will be cheap talk to proclaim the Assembly support for existing programs"as is". Also some unpopular measures such as the price of gas, are left at Maduro's doorstep. The common thread in the above Decalogue is to restore some trust in the battered political and economical needs of the country, to jump start what can be jump started legally through the specific constitutional powers of the assembly. The Assembly is not closing down on the regime's alleged reforms, it is building on them by correcting excesses. A fine line but a line worth threading.

And by announcing such type of laws before starting audits and inquiries on corruption would be a good PR operation, the more so that through ANTV and a reform of CONATEL, the media regulation agency, the MUD will have a way to counter the communication abuses of the regime.

Of course, if the opposition gets a 3/5 or 2/3 majority things will be simplified, and we can even foresee a regime collapse sped up through these very simple initial measures.

NOTE: I list all of these but let's not forget that there will be a full month in between the election and the swearing in, a period long enough for the regime to do enough treachery to stop some of these initiatives. A good measure on how to fight for the next thousand measures required will proceed....

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The Macri effect

One week ago Argentina elected a new president, the first certifiably peronist free in decades. As expected there will be changes in Argentina foreign policy. What was less expected is the speed at which president elect Macri started those changes, more than two weeks before being sworn in. To begin with, of the few people allowed on the election night stand, one was Leopoldo Lopez wife, Lilian Tintori. This made it to the opening news of CNNSpanish...

¡Plop! Café CÑN empieza su cobertura de resultado Argentino con abrazo de @liliantintori y @mauriciomacri en tarima pic.twitter.com/t2NkUB7x0e

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) November 23, 2015

So what now?


The first thing to note is that Macri means what he said. He repeated it twice on his morning after first press conference.  Other countries are taking notice and are not amused, like Uruguay. To which Macri replied stating point blank that human right violations were public and notorious in Venezuela and it was up to other countries to chose interest over ethics. In Venezuela they took a few days to acknowledge the hit, hoping, I suppose, that Dilma or somebody would call Macri to ask him to shut up. When nothing more but very gauche declarations like the one from Uruguay came, the regime finally reacted. National Assembly chair Diosdado Cabello called Macri a fascist (it takes one to know one, I suppose).  And president Maduro, not to be left behind, went as far as saying that the Argentinian people were ready to raise against Macri (interesting statement since he just got elected, is not sworn in yet,but then again Maduro was never suspected of being a democrat).

And yet, for of his apparent democratic ethics Macri thinks more about Argentina interests than those of Venezuela. He knows that a battle in Mercosur to evict Venezuela is lost because Brazil and Uruguay are too involved with Venezuela corruption and Venezuela owes them too much money. Macri's target is not only the increasingly abhorrent regime of Venezuela, it is Mercosur itself.

Mercosur is failing since Lula reached power. It has become for Brazil something like its private economic zone and as such things like true economic integration and political developments have been sub-ordained to Brazil's interests. The devastating Argentina crisis 13 years ago, and the very light weight of Uruguay and Paraguay made that possible. In other words, with the fraudulent incorporation of Venezuela Mercosur is going nowhere, and Macri seems to have no patience with that. In fact, Macri is looking towards relations with the Pacific Alliance which would favor Argentina more as its economy is more complementary to the P.A. needs than Brazil's one. If Mercosur fails to tame Venezuela it will be a perfect excuse for Macri to start taking its distances with it.

There is also more than Mercosur in the target, there is also the useless UNASUR, a presidential left self protection club for South America. Note that the the swearing in of Macri is on December 10, just when an eventual election fraud crisis in Venezuela would be at its apex. Apparently Macri has chosen his new foreign minister for her experience even though he did not know here personally. He gave her an agenda where two points were nonnegotiable: his pressure on Venezuela and the end of Argentina's relations with Iran. Clearly UNASUR received a notification that any unjustified support to Venezuela will not be approved by Macri and such a division could well mean also the end of the useless UNASUR.

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Yardsticks for tyranny

Today the weekly edition of Tal Cual offers us a piece for thought (1). They compared the time spent by Chavez in jail after his coup of 1992 and the one spent by Leopoldo Lopez since he has been accused of who knows what last year, as he is slowly rotting though his hunger strike. I summarize below.

Chavez has the blood of around 60 people on his hands from 1992. And more if we add the failed putsch of November 1992. Then among the targets was the attack of the presidential house which had ONLY the president's family as the president rarely slept there, or the defenseless state TV. Yet he was jailed with all the "respect" due to his middle military rank which included a constant stream of visitors that included from relatives to all sorts of journalists. His opinions on the profane and the divine circulated widely. At times it is true that he was briefly shut out but even then he had access to all possible commodities his detention center could offer and NGO visits as needed. That we know of, no torture report exist on Chavez or any of the people associated with his putsch and detained along him at the time.

Leopoldo Lopez is short three months of the detention time that Chavez served. And yet compared to Chavez his detention time has been truly gruesome. It has included beatings, deprivations, long isolations, denial of visitation for his relatives lawyers NGO journalists and more. All public is international knowledge. He is accused of crimes that he could not have not directly ordered even if he had wanted to.  And the case is so farfetched that he is suffering of denial of justice through a travesty trial which is abundantly denounced even outside of Venezuela. Leopoldo Lopez is currently on hunger strike, Chavez never had to resort to anything of the like. And I am not talking of the dozens of people that have been incarcerated along Lopez who have suffered from torture to other unspeakable horrors.

Then again in 1992 Venezuela was a democracy and today it is a tyranny.

The only question here is how come this fact is not more vocally denounced around the world. What gives? Are ethics so in disfavor today? Has the left so abandoned its raison d'être?

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1) reminder, Tal Cual was forced through spurious law suits and lack of paper to shut down its daily edition and go to a weekly tabloid format, leaving Venezuela with only two national independent-opposition newspapers, El Nacional and El Nuevo Pais. Period.

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Preparing the OAS Panama summit, at Raul's good will

Now, before anyone says anything I am a great fan of Andres Oppenheimer from the Miami Herald whose columns and books on Latin America are a must read. But his latest OpEd piece has a je ne sais quoi off.

At first glance his argument is impeccable; Obama should use the next variety of meetings in the Americas to start a rapprochement with some of the countries in difficulty, mainly ailing Brazil (the biggie is OAS in Panama April 10) . Certainly since September 11 the US has been distracted from Latin America and others have step in to pick up the slack, namely China buying and pushing up the commodities market.

However if it takes two to tango, it also takes at least 2 NOT to tango. This blog has noted that the Afghanistan war and the much more questionable one in Iraq have been a huge distraction on what should have been the US real interests, namely South America its nearest neighbor. Certainly this helped a lot the chavista regime to take hold. But it was also good news for other assorted lefts that could count on US silence no matter what they did to reach office.

Yet the distancing of the US was also met by a deliberate distancing from the South. After all, someone like Lina Ron in Venezuela may not have risen to fame, and to perpetrate the damage she did, had she not been burning an US flag in front of the US Caracas embassy within hours of September 11.  She was extreme but she was not alone in smiling at a US disaster. One could have certainly expected most of "the West" to participate in the anti Taliban operation, but that did not stop countries from other continents of Asia and Africa to send in some support. South of the Rio Grande I think only Salvador expressed support of any type. I understand that Afghanistan was more of NATO problem than an OAS problem but that Cardoso or Fox were not more participative is kind of a mystery. If I am wrong in my recollections, please, do correct me.

The fact of the matter is that the US did try to have some links. For example George Bush braved the continent to have diner at a Montevideo steak house while in Buenos Aires Chavez paid for an anti US meeting. But in the end people like Lula were delighted at the opportunity offered by US pusillanimity to flex Brazilian imperialism through proxies like UNASUR, Chavez and others.

Poor Obama did not have much of chance. He tried to ingratiate himself at first, even receiving an idiotic book from Chavez at the Trinidad summit. In the Honduras fiasco he tried to see things Latin America way. To which result? Now, in his lameduckness I suppose that Obama is recentering the US interests where they truly belong, or at least where the US can hope for some significant influence or even alliances.  In 2015 what matters to the US are its partners Europe/Japan/Aussieland/likewise; middle East; and Central America and the Caribbean, the source of great immigration problems. Even Israel seems on its way to be demoted from numero 1. In South America the lone interest seems to be Colombia and I even start doubting it now that Santos seems to bent on sabotaging Uribe's successes while ignoring Venezuela narco state.

Obama's administration has the right perspective, at least it seems to be from this blogger point of view. In 6 years South America has been unable to make any significant rapprochement with the US (outside of the Pacific Alliance, still to prove itself, and a market thing rather than espousing US "ideology"). Not only that but Obama has found no support against the insults from Chavez, no understanding on how Venezuela having become a drug highway is damaging to US interests, no reprobation from the Venezuela financial corruption spilling over. Enough is enough and Obama has simply demanded that South America do its share, to straighten up their act.  Meanwhile some political capital is spent, wisely or not, on Cuba and the Caribbean basin. The rest may go to hell. After all the rich in South America keep buying at a steady pace Real Estate in the US, so where is the problem?

That is why when I read Oppenheimer question: Has the United States given up on South America? I can only but smile. I think that it is too easy to put all the blame on the US. Indeed the guilt of the failed relationship is to be shared in equal parts (I think less on the US actually).  And when I read "It’s a new regional scene. Obama should keep this in mind, and try to reset ties with South America — especially with financially ailing Brazil — at the summit." it sounds to me that the US should be the forgiving one, or that rather Oppenheimer in spite of, or because of, all his years in the US feels like the jilted party.

No matter what Caracas would like us to believe, the US is not anymore the imperial power it used to be. There is only so much resources available and it is fair for the US to start dealing only with amenable interested parties. If South America wants a better relationship with the US it is up to them, not to Obama or his successors. And it is not by promoting UNASUR, electing Almagro at the OAS or refusing to put pressure on Maduro that South America is acting like the responsible partner that the US need in this multipolar world.

In short, I have the feeling that Panama will be only another bust in the collection of failed OAS meeting. Unless of course Raul Castro decides it to be otherwise.  If he reins in Venezuela, if he convinces Maduro to go somewhere else during the summit, the cameras will be fixed on Barack/Raul hug. If Raul is pissed at his shadow he can wreck the whole summit by letting loose idiot Maduro. After all that would be quite a triumph for Raul, to spit on the OAS when this one is starting to allow the Cuban tyranny to go back in the concert of democracies.

It is quite amazing to see how a whole continent is hostage to the most archaic regime left in the world after North Korea. Though I suppose circumspect Canadians probably think that their own huge country could qualify as a separate continent and they will pretend to be in Panama on holiday.

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That South African feeling...

Unfuckingbeleivably there are those among the opposition that actually think we should condemn the US for the "sanctions" against a whole brunch of crooks and criminals. Apparently that opposition light, which I shall not mention at this time so embarrassed I am by them, would want us to support the regime in this particular issue, brandishing useless arguments like "avoiding" an enabling law that would "give more power" to Maduro. Apparently there are people that still are not aware we live under a dictatorship, a new type of course, but a tyranny nevertheless.

That a portion of the opposition is unable/unwilling to make a campaign stating the obvious, that the sanctions ARE NOT AGAINST Venezuelans, just against corrupt/human rights abusers Venezuelan officials, has to be considered as either mental laziness, sheer stupidity or outright corruption.

I am reminded that once upon a time there was that argument in favor of limiting sanctions against the apartheid government of South Africa, that the people would suffer more than the whites, etc. Eventually it was ANC and the people that demanded tougher sanctions, that they were willing to put up with the consequences in the search for freedom. That was a courageous people! And in the end they won.

I would hate to compare Venezuela to South Africa, their epic being of a different nature. But comparison points abound. The Venezuelan regime is based on a political apartheid. Only those associated with the regime benefit from it. There is no justice for any side, which is an obvious suffering for the opposing side but also visible for the regime side as none inside can express any criticism under the risk of a worse fate than the actual opposition critic. The differences are also notable: at least the Afrikaners did run a solid economy that took years to be affected by the sanctions. Corruption in Venezuela goes beyond the pale as I cannot think of any regime in the past century that has been as corrupt as the Venezuelan one today.

But in the end the big difference is that we have a spineless leadership that is willing to put up with a lot as long as they can keep some of the chips. And a populace that the regime has learned to control though hand outs, something that the apartheid never truly could manage  because of its "racial superiority ideology" rather than the plain scoundrel ideology that drives our locals...

Today the opposition should be in unison demanding that more and more Venezuelan corrupt officials be pointed, no matter what the repressive risks are. Instead there is either a deafening silence or an actual support. Few have the guts to speak out, clear and loud. As long as we have leaders like Ramos Allup of Henri Falcon, and even Capriles that seems to wake up a little bit lately, but too late, we will never get rid of the tyranny. As long as the populace is willing to accommodate itself with long lines, murdered students, lack of medicine while refusing to talk real principles of universal equality, we have the fate we deserve.

I admire more than ever Mandela and his people.

PS: I, for one, thank Obama`s administration and demand that the whole list of sanctions is made public and expanded. I wish he had started earlier, but at least he has started.

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The extraordinary failure of UNASUR

I was going to write a scathing post in Spanish about the visit of a UNASUR delegation to Caracas yesterday but reading Twitter this week end I realized that no one in Venezuela was fooled. No need to write in Spanish to add water to the mill.  My criticism of Ernesto Samper and Maria Angela Holguin would be more useful in English.

For those that can be excused not to know about UNASUR, this organization is limited to countries in South America. It was the brain child of Lula as a way for Brazil to 1) exclude the US from that region (and weaken OAS, always a potential problem for rogue regimes) 2) be an instrument for Brazil to control the rest of the subcontinent, if anything due to its sheer size now that there would be no US counterweight and 3) shoulder up the leftists regimes getting into place in the area. Of course, such an organization set up in the interest of some political groups rather than the interests of nations was doomed from the start. Chavez joined in eagerly as he thought it a mean to lead in South America. Lula allowed him to believe he was doing so when in fact Chavez was doing Brazil's dirty work, etc. That Colombia and Paraguay joined in reluctantly did not help, but I suppose that they thought it was better to monitor these creeps from inside than from outside.

UNASUR not only has been a failure, a still born organization (only good enough to set up a shining palace seat in Quito apparently), but its only noteworthy action has been to shore up the weakening Venezuelan regime in its attempt at demise democracy altogether. Already the failed attempt at moderation after Maduro stole the 2013 election served only to weaken the winner Capriles (though his own stupid mistakes helped a lot). But the visit of UNASUR Friday was the worst, the shameful, the most partial intervention of an alleged international organization that took place in recent memory. A little bit, all proportions guarded, as if the foreign ministers of France, the UK and USA of A would have gone to Berlin in 1934 and told the Jews and Social Democrats to sit quietly and take part in a dialogue process directed by Hitler who was the legal chancellor of Germany.

That is right, the UNASUR commission on Friday told the world that in Venezuela there was a separation or powers, that Maduro was the person indicated to lead the dialogue process, Two of the members of that commission we need not expand much on. The Brazilian foreign minister comes from significant political trouble at home and his mission is to seek ways that Venezuela can pay some of the huge debt it has with Brazil. That Dima has a very likely personal dislike of Maduro will not stop Brazil from trying to trade ingratiating moves against solid payments. After all, Brazilians have a general disgust against Spanish speakers which incessant bickering has allowed themselves to be spoiled of half a continent.

The Ecuador foreign minister, Patiño, is a rat, always promoting the left while at home economy is run from the right, in US dollars, please. With Patiño the regime can do no wrong. Period. At least he had the decency in Twitter to write that he met with MUD members, not MUD leadership. So at least he is awre at an obscure level that things are not right.

My beef is with the colombians in the group, two of them. Let's start by the UNASUR secretary, Ernesto Samper, former Colombian president, who has no visa to go to the US, I understand. That is because his political life has been fraught with accusations of being in bed with drug traffic money for his campaigns. One does not understand why such a flawed candidate made it to UNASUR secretary. The more so that he was, I understand, sponsored by Santos.

Since his arrival at the secretary chair Samper has multiplied hs marks of support for the Maduro regime. And he overreached himself this time around. I will start wth his only tweet so far.

Visita d UNASUR a Venezuela abrió caminos para el diálogo político q se mantenía cerrado por más d un año.
— Ernesto Samper (@ernestosamperp) March 7, 2015

UNASUR visit to Venezuela opened the ways for a political dialogue that was kept close for over a year.

Except that it did not. First UNASUR spent its time with Maduro and the dignitaries (so to speak) of the regime. That is the overly partial high court, TSJ, which has not handed down a decision adverse to the regime since we can remember. That is the nation's prosecutor who has jailed whomever MAduro ir Chavez demanded to be sent to jail. That is the electoral board, CNE, from where to our great surprise UNASUR announced that parliamentary elections would be held in September. See, the CNE had been mute on that matter until UNASUR let the cat out. I suppose.

All of these visits are unnecessary but cannot be avoided and we can note that apparently UNASUR expressed concern about how some political cases were handled. And all of these visits were to active enforcers of the dictatorial nature of the regime. You could say that UNASUR also met with the opposition. It did not. The foursome invited certain leaders of the opposition but it did not invite its actual official representative, Chuo Torrealba. And to make things worse, most who attended left without talking to the press, grim faced. Clearly the reunion with the opposition was not a success.

In case you doubt watch Torrealba's words. You do not to understand Spanish to figure out that you know what is hitting the fan.


And to add insult to injury Samper said that there is separation or powers in Venezuela, that dialogue must be directed by Maduro as the legitimate head of state, that UNASUR will be against anyone that demands or forces the departure of Maduro, etc...  And also that UNASUR will try to find food for us...  No words about monitoring fairness of elections that are proposed as the panacea to all our evils, no visit to political prisoners, no acknowledgment of torture and murder, etc...

But if Samper has always been a lost cause, just rotting more and growing his stench as days pass, one must wonder about the fourth member of the foursome: Maria Angela Holguin, foreign minister of Colombia. I suppose that sensing that her visit was a P.R. failure she had the sagacity to pretend this week end that the UNASUR visit had nothing to do with restarting dialogue (contradicting Samper) and just an inquiry as to the coming elections process, as the natural solution to our woes, As if any election since 1999 has solved anything in Venezuela.

What are we to do from that visit, shameful and more so when Holguin pretends otherwise. I certainly understand that Colombia's Santos has mired himself in the swamp of negotiations with the FARC and that he cannot afford to antagonize further Venezuela because of that. But Holguin has already often been criticized for more coziness than necessary with the regime.  Apparently none of them wants to think about what would happen to Colombia if a million or two hunger refugees were to pour across the border.  Santos will probably pass into the history books as a failure as it is likely that if his negotiations with the FARC makes it to a referendum they will not be approved, this while he left Venezuela rot. Never mind that the negotiations gave plenty of time for the FARC to rearm, reorganize and secure shelter inside Venezuela.

Of course, they may actually have a plan, they may actually think that things can be worked out with the regime. Which is a truly sad thing because they seem to ignore that you cannot negotiate with mafia like individuals, bonafide fascists who will not accept any agreement unless signed under their terms. How much time will be wasted with UNASUR?  There is no discussion with these people in my mind. Unless UNASUR means at the very least electoral business and become the guarantors of next elections, from fairness to vote counting, there is no point for the MUD in sitting with such a farce, a "comparsa" as we say here. Let them go codle Maduro and share responsibility in the coming starvation and blood bath.

Meanwhile, real people, not those with dirty interests and secrets at UNASUR, worry a lot about Venezuela.

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