And they shall go to jail

I am not sure if people outside Venezuela truly measure how miserable it is to live here. However one thing is certain, the political situation makes it impossible for things to improve any time soon. Even more certain are the odds of things getting worse. The photo below is National Assembly chair Ramos Allup showing on TV the picture of the defense minister Padrino Lopez in bowed deference to Fidel. This is the clearest sign that the confrontation with the regime is reaching pitch fork level.

Why is this picture, which has widely circulated in the web months ago, back in front?

For this you need to come back to what this blog has gotten tired to repeat over and over: the regime cannot, CANNOT, leave office because this would mean that dozens if not hundreds of regime luminaries will find their way to trials and jail sentences, some as far as reaching The Hague tribunal (it is my opinion that, at the very least, Maduro's criminal actions against the well being of the Venezuelan population make him worthy of sitting at the accused bench of The Hague international court for human rights).

If you do not get this, or disagree with this, then you really have wasted your time reading this blog over the years.

The Games of Thrones played in real life here is as confusing as the fictional one, and probably many a political career would be demised as in the series, hopefully with not as much blood though I am now certain that some will be spilled..

To try to understand this let's start by the game played by the National Assembly. It's only weapon is legality, voting laws that bring answers to the plight of people. The process is long and tedious and exasperating not only to the radical minds inside the opposition but even to more rational spirits like a dear friend from overseas with whom I had a long talk yesterday.  It is indeed hard to keep cool in front of the onslaught suffered by the Assembly.

The regime indeed is annulling every law the Assembly passes. Even if the political cost for the regime may be high. For example we are waiting for the oncoming, announced, annulment of two laws. One is designed to allow quick and full ownership to those who got public housing in recent years. This is a No-No for the regime as that housing is sort of a grant that people can preserve as long as they support the regime. But denying such law goes against the human nature of even many hard core chavistas who, well, like any human being want their very own refuge...

More damaging still are the ridiculous pretension that the "bono alimentación" (kind of a food stamp system) for retired people is too expensive for the regime to accept. To which it was replied immediately that if there is money for weapons then there is money to help retirees living of a pension that is today at 40 USD a month (according to DICOM already in free fall since its creation weeks ago). The problem here is that the regime cannot permit under any circumstances to have the populace believe that they can get stuff outside of Chavez or his appointed heir. I suppose that in the regime mental construct the political price to screw the elderly is preferable to the political price of people starting to think that there is life after chavismo.

I pass on other laws annulled which are more abstract to the point made here. The objective of the regime is to annul the National Assembly. Since this cannot be done easily in front of the public opinion, and because the Assembly has two atomic bombs in reserve, the regime is proceeding to discuss nincompoopy proposals such as an amendment to bring down the Assembly term from 5 years to 60 days. Amen that such a constitutional amendement would have to be voted in a referendum (article 341) that the regime cannot win without massive and thus obvious fraud.

Or go the way of a mere coup and that is that.

Indeed the National Assembly has two bombs that are very dangerous to all, but more to the regime. One is the ability to call for a Constituent Assembly that if it proves effective could result in sweeping away all of the regime office holders (articles 348 and 349).

The other bomb is immediate: the regime is short on cash and the only way to borrow more dollars is to get a favorable vote from the Assembly (as a guarantee to the lender). This one will certainly give it IF AND ONLY IF the regime accounts for how the loan will be spent, monitored through a mechanism that will not be under regime control. Something that is totally unacceptable for an hyper corrupt regime. Will the regime pick bankruptcy? Coup? Negotiation?

I am going for coup even though no one will lend a dollar to the regime in such conditions. A coup would only result in utter misery for the people with the regime's hope to control the populace through control of food. A gamble that at least Maduro, Cabello and their close corrupt entourage are willing to take with the assumption that the army will help killing whatever needs to be killed through heavy repression.

Which brings us to the picture opening this entry.

I, for one, consider that Ramos Allup and the opposition have acted to the best of their abilities. There may be better ways to proceed but NO ONE so far as made the case that there is another strategy for the opposition to corner the regime until this one blows a fuse and close the Assembly, or collapses. Either way, many will have to go to jail...

The pressure over the regime has been gradual but continued and unfaltering. And at each time the regime has shown its dark nature. First the emergency economic decree was rejected but approved through yet another judicial coup. The the courts decided that the National Assembly did not have the right to call for hearings on public servants unless allowed by the regime. Then populists reforms are rejected at political cost for the regime. Then the amnesty Law is now under threat and if the regime rejects it it will result in a strongly welded opposition against the regime. On this last one we had the Defense Minister that chimed in as to his opinion that the Amnesty Law was bad. Not only this is not true, and not of his resort, but coming from someone who is linked to coup mongers that benefited in their time from an amnesty of sorts it is simply an indefensible position.

Ramos Allup thought that the time has come to put the armed forces in front of their duty. Showing the picture of an adoring minister of defense in front of a foreign potentate, publicly, on TV, simply questions the loyalty to the nation, to democracy, of the head of the armed forces.

The implications of this are so obvious that I will dispense the patient but smart reader from further explanations.

Only one comment to close this entry: Padrino Lopez today must regret not to have accepted the massive fraud that Cabello wanted to perpetrate on December 6. I will let you think on that too.

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Mid March, and the march to abyss continues

Regular readers might be wondering about the sparse recent posting compared to the flurry early this year. Many reasons but it is not the point. Time to update things a little

Cruelty of the regime

My personal experience last week should make it clear that no one can escape the trained violence that the regime has sponsored, trained by Cubans, of course, as it has not been in the nature of Venezuelans whose earlier dictators would rather dispatch people and only torture for information, never for sport as it has become the case here, in particular since 2014 under Maduro (who hopefully will meet the fate that escaped Chavez, to sit in an international court of justice for crimes against humanity). If a simple particular, out of nowhere, can experience such psychological violence I wonder what people from Lopez to Afiuni have truly experienced. Even, if it were possible, more respect from me now.

But the cruelty is not only there, it reaches genocidal levels with the refusal of the regime to face down the health care crisis, one that could not be solved fast but could be attenuated fast with very simple measures, if the regime decided to try to steal a little bit less than what they are doing. When I hear Sanders at this point in time vaunting the Cuban health care system, in ruin and that ruined the Venezuelan one, I can only be aghast and and say that I feel the burn. How can a US presidential candidate with real aspirations can be so ill informed?

Corruption keeps apace

These past couple of weeks my business has been confronted with two direct extortion attempts by public officials that have become mere racketeers. One succeeded because we had no choice. We are tired to receive the visit of "brokers" which are people that miraculously have access to dollars and can import what we cannot do.  But at DollarToday rates. However they do offer a valid bill of purchase so we can put the goods into our accounting. If we were importing them on our own, without going through the currency exchange of control, the USD bill would be recognized at 10, not at 1100 as DolarToday has it. Imagine the taxes we would pay that way.

Meanwhile, of course, the barrening process of grocery store shelves keeps apace. Not even my blackmarteers can provide me with what I need, even at a ten fold increase of the official legal price.

Meanwhile the devaluation of a few weeks ago has already failed. Far from calming the country the black market rate registered a further 10% loss since the devaluation. So there.

The National Assembly under siege, literally

Videos show how chavista colectivos can post graffiti over the hallowed walls of parliament under the eyes of the Nazional Guard that remains nearly motionless.  The chavista whip takes to the barricades to ask paid for chavista "supporters" to storm the Assembly to which he was elected.

These are just a sign of the times, as judicial decision after judicial decision the regime is starting to rule through the high court, TSJ. But even that will not be enough soon. The Assembly spokesperson has said that any new debt secured without passing through the National Assembly risks not been recognized by a future government. Can the TSJ get the country into more debt as if nothing? Will someone be stupid enough to trust their money to these TSJ/Maduro racketeers? Me thinks not. Thus the regime will have to find a permanent way to neutralize once and for all the Assembly.

The Assembly tries what it can

Even though people disagree with the way the Assembly is proceeding, I beg to differ. First, I do not think it can do more than what it does now. Differently perhaps, but more I doubt. Second it has exposed clearly that if the crisis continues, and even worsens, it is because the regime is refusing to discuss ANYTHING. Compromise with these people is, well, impossible. Surprise!

So the Assembly has decided in earnest to do the last thing it can do : to take out Maduro. A multi pronged approach is necessary since the regime is already putting obstacles to any electoral test that they know they will lose. And the TSJ will, of course, annule anything they want because a comma is not exactly where it should be, even though their own sentences are usually ill written. Something that a ridiculous journalist, from Time no less, qualifies with the worst humor possible as a peaceful coup . As I was commenting, too many journalists still see Venezuela as a reality show.....

At any rate the Assembly has decided to try to oust Maduro in all possible ways: recall election, constitutional amendment, street protest and the ultimate nuke, constitutional assembly. It will fail of course because the regime CANNOT surrender power because they know what their fate will be: jail. They will sabotage, repress, annul even basic common sense. But something will get started and people will be hungry. And international narco justice and money laundering cannot be avoided for ever. All is thus possible. The question is when.

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There you have, a summary of the 4 posts I should have been writing if I had time on my hands.

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Not amused

I am watching and reading some of the news on Venezuela, slightly bemused. Apparently they are so unbelievable for the civilized world that one would be forgiven to think that Venezuela: survivor is just your latest reality show fade, somewhere between the Kardashians for its bad taste and Chopped for its cut throat run for food. My favorite of the day comes from a segment from yesterday nightly news (the big one at France 2) which starts with a food line. Yet readers of this blog have seen much more impressive lines filmed by yours truly, in this blog or Instagram.

But it is getting serious and CÑN tonight had a title with "no bread in Venezuela".

It is true and it is not amusing.


I eat little bread for diet reasons, limiting myself to full fiber sliced super market loaves. But the SO wanted some bakery bread. I went to 4. I did not find any. The last one I found some "pan dulce" and that was that, good enough to eat with a cup of coffee, if you have it. They also told me that they bake bread only twice a day now, for early breakfast and for diner when people come back from work. Depending on the bakery they give one or two "canillas" (sort of our local baguette). And that within 15 minutes it is usually all gone.

But this is not the only item missing.

Since my return early February things have been getting worse, almost on a daily basis. Supermarket shelves are getting emptier, lines are less frequent because nothing arrives, and when something arrives lines get truly huge in no time. If bakery bread is missing sliced bread is down at the grocery store and my favorite brand has now a weird taste. I am not complaining, I can still switch to another brand. For how long?

Bottled water seems to be gone for good.

Choice is also gone.  Deli is getting to a "it is that or nothing level". Now grocery stores are not even trying to hide the empty spaces with junk.

On the medical front things are worse, if possible. Today I learned of the arrival of some generics from a medicine for triglycerides that I had to stop taking. I arrived in time at my local "LOCATEL". I tried to get also a small bottle of rubbing alcohol. To my surprise there is none. The lone brand on the market has stopped delivering. No more rubbing alcohol for your disinfection needs!

Since my SO, and the mother in law, are physically unable to stand in line for anything for more than half an hour, we must all share the burden. I cannot so I am resorting more and more to black market. I put on Instagram the latest of my loot on toilet paper, two heavy bags at 8 times the normal cost (and I learned that actually I got it for cheap!). But I also got 12 kilos of pasta that way, albeit at only twice the normal cost. Currently I am waiting for milk (it will be twice) and rice (at least thrice). But I have also been told not to hope much for that arrival. Corn flour is too political so my black market guy does not dare to go there. For that I will need to go to "buhoneros" in Petare at 4 times the cost, if not more, under the eyes of the Nazional Guard.

There is no black market for medicine because  there is none. Well, almost no black market. One of my siblings got some of his heart medicine from some one bringing it form the US and cashing it in USD!!!!!!! Well, in all fairness apparently there had been some mistake so the guy sold what he did not need through contacts, but in dollars, with overhead anyway. I am expecting some form of black market for some medicines to start organizing.

At this point the neglect of the regime can only be qualified as of criminal, worthy of large scale human right violations and The Hague court. It is as such because the regime refuses to let any opening for anything, aware as they are that if they relinquish control over any item they risk to see everything tumble down fast. So if "el pueblo" suffers a secret Zika epidemic because there is no fumigation, there is no insect repellent, there is not even material to do mosquito netting, well too bad. I also read that HIV may be getting out of control since there has been a lack of protection for over a year, and lack of testing. This in addition to malaria and tuberculosis that made a come back BEFORE Chavez died.

Make no mistake: it is Chavez electorate that is suffering the most. And it is the one that lately seems to start heating up.

So you will excuse me if articles about gas hike in Venezuela or lack of tourists, even though it is the cheapest destination in the Western hemisphere, leave me cold.

I, for one, could not care less if my car gasoline refill is now 350 instead of 5.

In fact I do not give a shit about gas price.

I have real problems elsewhere. Let foreign journos that are into spectator sports take care of that.

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Musings on the pharmaceutical genocidal debacle

Thinking about what I wrote last night, giving Maduro a D-. I realized that I was too generous, that my Scientific objectivity took above my best judgement. These measures mean nothing, at best it is a way for him to gain a few more weeks until he finds a way to save his ass. Nothing basic will change in the system. That is all.

A brutal slap drove that point a couple of hours ago. In yet another cadena Maduro sat in front of him representatives of the pharmaceutical sector to "restart" production which apparently to  him has unaccountably stopped. Basically he rediscovered the wheel and medicines will churned soon for the great contentment of the people. Unfortunately I wok in the sector and things are not as rosy as he would like el pueblo to believe.


Well, a note first: I do not work in the human medical sector but part of my activities are related to animal husbandry medications and the story is exactly the same. There we see much lower yields because animals cannot be treated adequately. And thus less protein for el pueblo.

I am not going to discuss how medicine is paid or costs in Venezuela: every country has its own very complex system. What I am going to address is how come there is today a criminal, yes, criminal, shortages of medicine in Venezuela.

Before Chavez Venezuela did not produce active principles of a large majority of most medicines. Like most countries in the world, it had a wide representation of diverse major pharmaceuticals companies that would or would not produce on site a given principle, pill it or bottle it for Venezuela and export it to neighboring countries. And vice versa. There were also several local pharmaceutical that would get licenses to manufacture all sorts of generics with raw material imported from wherever. In short, a wide variety of pharmaceuticals were available and we were the envy of Latin America. The only problem was cost. Admittedly a significant one but not an insoluble one if a serious government had set its mind to make public hospitals work efficiently and dispense directly medicine to the neediest sectors of the population. And yet costs were not astronomical and at least the middle class managed quite well.

When chavismo set its currency exchange controls, its importations barriers, its refusal to accept that foreign companies recover their investments, the whole system unraveled. Add to this sub par quality imports from Cuba to satisfy Barrio Adentro Mision and other unfair competition and ridiculous price controls and you get the picture.

The mystery is not that pharmacy shelves are empty today, the mystery is how come they have not been empty 2 years ago already.

What happened took place in different phases, First, major foreign laboratories closed one by one, moving their production facilities to Colombia or elsewhere. Quite often the products they manufactured here disappeared, not even coming back imported from the new place. Simply, they left the country, having enough of its problems. Then, as currency crunch happened, suppliers of raw material became more and more reluctant to provide what the local generics needed to make their pills, packagings and the like. The debt ballooned and suppliers simply stopped sending stuff.  Hence the current situation. As for what could not be assembled here, well, they stopped coming even before generics stopped production.

The criminal role of the regime CANNOT be understated: the medical emergency has already been denounced since early last year, people have died, and keep falling and we had to wait until today to finally hear about a new plan that will not resolve anything. At best, the regime announced that it will decide which deseases you can survive and which, well, will be too bad for you if you get them.

The regime guilt comes from its stubborn refusal to create a free exchange rate where people could at least import medicine at international cost. But no, we all have to die the same, and only the very reach, those with hefty accounts over seas can bring whatever they need to bring in. This is XXI century socialism for you.

What is terrible here is that the solution is simple and fast, at least to restock the shelves of the basics.  Remove price controls. Free the currency for import of raw material, packaging needs, etc. In three months top you will get again 90% of the generics produced 2 years ago. The production lines exist, the people to make them are trained. You do not even need to pay back debt to suppliers yet, you can wait a little bit longer for that and start paying it AFTER production restarts. They will understand (I know what I am talking about, direct experience with providers). Many of the raw materials can actually be brought in airborne as they are needed in small amounts. The rest can come in a couple of dozen containers just to restart the basics like acetaminophen for dengue and zika or high blood pressure drugs.

That it will be too expensive? What is worse: cheap inexistant pills or expensive available pills?  For the poor the regime just needs to organize large scale discounted purchases for public hospitals and provide the prescription for free for those that go there for treatment. Or charge them a nominal fee. Corruption is easily control: one package for hospitals and one for pharmacies so you will know if what you buy has been subtracted from an hospital.

It is really quite simple and the dollars for that exist. You just need to stop the corruption around it.

But since the regime is unwilling to do that, then I have the regret to insist on that: the regime is guilty of genocidal practices against the Venezuelan people for deliberately depriving it from on time access to necessary medication.

Period.

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Maduro's economic measures get a D- ; but the objective is elsewhere

Finally, after nearly three years in office, Nicolas Maduro decided (or was it decided for him?) to take some economic measures. Too little, too late. He does not get an F because he dares to increase the price of gas. I suppose that gives him a C for effort, and the rest is F. Before I get into the details it is noteworthy that the measures are announced barely hours after he fired his economic minister (Salas) and failed to put in jail Polar's CEO Mendoza and expropriate the group as radicals wanted. Combine that with the creation of a new monster controlled by the military, CAMIMPEG, and you know that the military are behind the whole thing (but more on that in a future post).

Thus, even if I have other things in my mind these days I need to summarize what happened today to give you guys the real meaning of the whole thing. In no particular order.

Gas price increase. C for effort. F for method. D- for benefits.

In Venezuela we have nearly free gas in two grades. Now we will have the same two categories, not quite free, but with a 5 fold difference in price. Consequence number 1 expect shortages of the lowest grade immediately. Consequence number two, people are stupid enough that they rushed to gas station tonight to fill up with free gas to avoid paying almost free gas in a couple of days so there may not be gas this week end in Caracas. But if people were smart and knew how to count and manage, surely chavismo would be by now a long forgotten bad memory.

Will it help? No. We still have the cheapest gas in the world (at the black market rate which is the one that matters). It is quite possible that gas will still be sold below production cost. And smuggling of gas will continue to be a brisk business at the borders as long as it is less than a quarter the price of gas in Colombia or Brazil or T&T. And when your tip to a valet parking attendant is already higher than what it will take you to fill your tank of gas at the new price, then there is no incentive to save on gas by driving less.

Devaluation of currency. D for effort. D+ for simplification. F for benefits.

We had three exchange rates (Cencoex, Sicad and Simadi) plus the black market. Now Sicad disappears (ir was invisible anyway) and we are left with a new Cencoex that goes down from 6.3 to 10, or a 37% depreciation against the USD. Simadi which was kept through mysterious ways at 200 for one USD will start to float. How? No details but if it is not in a transparent way and if the regime does not supply a steady, even if small, supply of dollars the black market rate of 1000 to a USD will keep going up.

We can expect that the floating new Simadi, or whatever the name will be, to be a tad more supplied because apparently we may be getting travel money through its value (right now we are getting nothing). But otherwise I see no improvement on economic conditions. The Cencoex rate should have gone down, in my opinion, to at least 50 to make any difference. After all with an inflation somewhere between 200 and 300% that depreciation hike of 87% would have been already factored in. But the real problem here is that the same people who had access to the 6,3 rate are the ones that will retain access at 10, and will resell it on the black market through "arbitration". This is where the big business of the military and bolibourgeoisie resides and it remains untouched. In other words the economic system of privileges remains untouched and thus the crisis will remain as it is.

Minimum wage increase. F. Period

With a minimum wage increase of 20% and a current inflation of at the very least 200%, you do the math.

New system for price control and food distribution. D for simplification. D- for benefits.

Too early to pass a definitive judgment here. Anything that wants to perpetuate price control is doomed from the start. However the way things are announced it would seem that the regime is willing to let a significant portion of the economy out of price control, keeping a "100" list of essentials only which will be sold/controlled at their true production costs, whatever that may mean. The other possible good news is that the complex system of food fairs, MERCAL, PDVAL and whatever will be fused in, well, basically food fairs in critical areas. Apparently too much corruption and black market....  Gee...  They found out.....

Electronic ration card. C for practicality. D- for possible corruption. F for ethics and admission of economic failure.

So the regime revived an old Rosales proposal of 2006, the "tarjeta mi negra" which was intended to give a pre loaded credit card to the poor so they could use it for only some specific services. Now it is a card from the Banco Venezuela, with chip and all, that will be given to social Mision holders. And probably will be used first as a ration card...  But in front of the black market crisis and the huge lines that the poor suffer the most and the impossibility that the country produces enough in the near future I suppose that we should look at it as the lesser evil. The real problem here is through which political hoops will people have to jump to get it............

Conclusion. D- (and I am generous)

I think that Maduro was forced into a plan that he did not want. His first intention (and Cabello probably) was to make a last stand, to take down Polar and see what happened (suffer a coup and leave as martyrs of the revolution?). The military knowing full well the unrest that massive shortages will result from Polar demise put a stop to it and had Salas fired (the point man of the PODEMOS wacko school from Spain). After all they would be blamed for the repression.

The creation of CAMIMPEG was immediately seen by all observers, and yours truly, as a way to hide assets from a likely bankruptcy of the state oil company PDVSA (amen of creating a gigantic military cartel, Sino-Korean style circa early years of their capitalism, or what has been done in Cuba already for its army). Expect more creations like that to shield whatever assets the regime can hide, and to bolster the army fortunes.

What happened today was the beginning of the exit of Maduro. The measures taken are woefully inadequate if they are not accompanied by less controls, some fiscal restraint, a loosening of labor market, quick investment in basic health care so workers can show up for work, etc. Yet they are anti chavista in nature, in particular the hike in gas price that Chavez promised that it would never happen while he was president (perhaps the only promise he ever kept, to our great disgrace). This is the unavoidable turn in economic policies and Maduro cannot take the helm. He pronounced them but he cannot run them, he will sabotage them if he must. So he is planing to leave (or some devious scheme to backtrack at some point, it is possible).

However the real benefit here is that the regime can now go to the IMF with part of its homework done and claim that the austerity measures were taken out of its own seriousness and not because they were imposed. Appearance of independence is preserved. Utter hypocrisy but in the end who cares if it helps us avoid starvation.  Too bad for them that what the IMF (or any lender) really wants is fiscal restraint and realistic exchange rate.

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The regime has decided to formally annul the National Assembly of Venezuela

Taking advantage of the half week (after Carnival holidays), that tomorrow there is no session in the Assembly, the high court , TSJ, decided that the vote to reject the Emergency decree of last January was not valid and thus the decree has been valid since January 14.

Voilá!

You are going to need a lot of pennies for my thoughts.  Let's get going.


First, the factual aspect of it. Clearly, as you will understand in the second part of this post, this is a political move of the regime, a dangerous move that can only hurt itself. See, by downgrading the Assembly to nothing the regime will assume the full cost of the political and economic crisis which is getting worse by the minute. Then again, at this point the regime is beyond caring.

So, which are the facts? A technicality. According to the court head, the assembly should have voted down the decree within 48 hours and not within a week. It is on TV record that the chair of the Assembly verified about the week delay and the government did not object to it, and agreed to send the ministers to present their case. They did not, but that is not the point. That they agreed to show up and then did not show up was a tacit admission that the week delay was valid and thus under no circumstances can the high court intervene to defend one of the parties who suddenly, AFTER the fact, may secretly decide to appeal a decision. In other words, this has been a conspiracy where no parts was asked to present its counter argument. The servile high court of the regime emitted the political decision that was requested and that was that.

Let's also add that the Assembly offered to discuss a new version of the decree if the government wished to do so, even the same one if the gouvernement had the courtesy to be more explicit on its proposals. We heard only chirps in the woods.

Before we go into consequences and speculations let's discuss as a second item the political message in that decision.  From the preexisting laws Maduro and his regime could pretty much do as they pleased on the economic front. The decree was merely to project the image of "doing something" about shortages, and probably justifying blocking access to savings to try to control inflation somehow, and establishing ration cards, amen of creating absolutely idiotic and absolutely corrupt food distribution schemes like the ones already tried out in Yaracuy. Thus the decree was a provocation from the start to please the bruised ego of the radical left after the dramatic loss of December vote. It was also the start of some plan but that one was not quite congealed as we can deduct simultaneous from the very vagueness and extremism of the decree. Part of the information required to develop that plan was study the resolve of the Assembly, the reaction of the country, and how the crisis was going on (I suppose).

Clearly the Assembly was going to do its work, was not breaking down, was going to put its pressure on the regime slowly but surely. A clear message had to be sent and that the ruling of today IS the message. The TSJ will turn down ANY mesure the regime does not want, on ANY pretext. Legality has nothing to do with it. In case you do not quite understand this, it is the very last step before a "auto golpe" or self coup, where the executive power takes over all the powers of the Assembly in particular the ones from the purse (economy and the like) and control (hearings of ministers). In short Maduro has announced tonight that, together with the president of the TSJ Gladys Gutierrez, he will decide what of the Assembly will go and what will not go. He has created for himself a veto power that does not exist in the constitution and cannot be voted down because, well, it does not exist. Il suffisait d'y penser!

By the same token any attempt at modifying the Constitution will also be voted down by the TSJ... Even a consultative referendum.  And forget about reviewing old laws if the regime does not want to. A dictatorship, let's say it so.

And so we reach the third part, the why and what next.

Let me start by the what next because it is fast. Clearly this requires a strong response as it is unacceptable. We will wait for the Assembly leadership for that, it is their job. For example the idiotic Samper has announced a trip to Venezuela to bring his happy findings of December. He should be put to task. The National Assembly can go as far as requesting an emergency meeting of the OAS. It can vote a motion to censor our girl Gladys. Etc...  But what will probably happen may be quite different. The reaction of the TSJ is not quite a surprise. I am surprised in that it came this way and relatively late, but a reaction was coming. After all, I think already when I left on a trip I heard some ranting from Cabello to that effect. Or just when I cam back, or I forgot.

The regime is playing chaos as a strategy for survival (wait for an upcoming post) so we should count this ruling as bad but with a very nice silver lining: the regime is taking full political responsibility for all the economical, food and medical implosion taking place right now, under our eyes. The Assembly lone power now is to do its job, to act according to ethics, to grind its teeth and to keep telling to people that the regime is wrong and that there will be consequences for their actions and for the people that apply these actions.  The economic crisis will do the rest when hungry crowds start looting and the army finally has to step in to fight the gangs of thugs that support the regime coordinating these looting actions.

Finally the why (to be expanded this week end).

The country is imploding. I saw that myself, with my own eyes, after only ten days away (rep. intended).

Yesterday they changed the chemotherapy schedule for my S.O. because the mandatory electric shortages demand that patients are all rushed up faster than what normal care demands because of where the clinic is located and the time they are forced to shut down AC..

I have a new bachaquero. He charges between 2 to 4 times the official rate according to X. But I get, occasional,office delivery of significant supplies, let's say for me, my S.O., his mother, my house keeper in San Felipe (where the situation is way worse than in Caracas), my cleaning lady in Caracas, all people that cannot stand in line and who I do not charge full price. In fact I do not charge them, I pay their work with it, and they are way happier than with money. My S.O. and Mom I charge them less as their health bills are getting high so it is a discrete form to help them I found. They are simply out of touch, for obvious reasons, about the reality of the country. We all have our crosses.

Water comes only twice a week now. But I have a large tank, So in protest I water my lawn. If the regime had made maintenance as previewed, if it had made the investments that were requested and scheduled for 2010 we would not be suffering from the consequences of El Niño. which is a mere excuse as all the money spent in electrical generation through Derwick et al. seems to have been for naught.

Today I tried a new scheme to have "crucial" medicine sent from Europe at a horrendous price and through difficult loops: need to be European, need to have insurance over there, need to prove you cannot find it here, need to prove it is life threatening, etc... The paper work alone could kill you. And I do not know if it will work out, and I feel awfully guilty for those that cannot apply and I am doing this for my S.O. with my savings as his own ones are now gone.

And with all of the above, believe it or not, I still feel like a privileged because I can still afford it. I need to count pennies but I can still allot. So think about those who cannot. Today I helped someone by buying 50 euros at the full dollar today rate . Normally I do not do that but she needed to pay her kids school for the rest of the year.......

And that is the why. The country is sliding into the abyss. The regime knows that default is unavoidable now, if not they can read Nagel, and may be embracing the idea of it. But it is also understanding that there will be a heavy political price to pay. They are willing to pay for it because Maduro and Diosdado and Cilia and Tarek and a few generals know that regime change means jail for themselves. So they prefer to preside over the ruin of a country that they think they thus can control more easily. In their calculation there will be enough oil money for some very basic food items and aspirin, and enough drug money for their creature comforts. They cannot go elsewhere. Not even Cuba, too close from the US of A. And so they need to take out the National Assembly, provoke them into a crisis that justifies in front of "el pueblo" its dissolution and do away with direct suffrage, replaced by indirect suffrage, easier to control. They do not care what the word will think, they will be way too worried about the default to worry about Ramos Allup fate

And thus the actions of the regime these past weeks must be understood according to such parameters. They are aware that they will not recover the fervor of the people. Chavez bought that fervor though lot of goodies, some through real ideologization though outside of a core base some were also in for the money. They cannot count on that anymore. The time for fascism has arrived. Repression, destruction of legality, even their very own already deficient one. Use the distress of the country as an excuse to clamp down and see what happens. The hope for action is that military will cave in and accept to be the repressing agent. If not, then it will have to be the thug gangs that the regime has been promoting all these years that will do the job. They seem able and willing.

Will the whole strategy work?  It may. It may not. More in a coming post this week end..
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Two notes added in proof-

1) In regard of the "why". The recent confrontation with Lorenzo Mendoza may have sped up the decision to procede with the decree. That Polar are the lone products available is a gaping hole in all the conspiracy theories of why the "economic" war is letting the country slowly starve. The expropriation of Polar is something that was a target of that decree and something that the regime needs to do, to bring down the last remaining independent institution in the country, a symbol on how failed the regime is. It also would suicidal but that is probably what the regime wants. Abject poverty for all.

2) And what about the Vice president?

I have a hard time to think that he is part in that show. He was having discrete and difficult contacts with Ramos Allup. Aristobulo Isturriz was named to try to find a way to work with the new Assembly and he knows that such negotiations last weeks and months, in the best cases.  We were even led to believe that some of the appointments of January were to reinforce somewhat the more "moderate" line of Aristobulo, to give it a name.

Clearly that TSJ decision sinks any discussion Aristobulo was trying to have. So two hypothesis.

1) he was making some headway and radicals did not like it and use the TSJ to blow at Aristobulo who will be forced to apply a decree that he knows full well will not work and that he will be forced to take the blame for it. If that is the case I will recommend Aristobulo to start a political crisis by resigning right now, at a press conference, convoked to announce new measures and instead to announce his resignation.

2) he was not making headway, or did not intend to so anyway. So these discussion were to gain time. As such he embraces the TSJ ruling and seals the final break up with the Assembly and walks straight ahead in the constitutional crisis.

I suggest Aristobulo to think carefully about his next move because he is being set up, no matter which is the hypothesis he is working on. But if I were to advise him, I would resign and create a scandal.

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Bewilderment

This is the feeling since I came back. First, I could not believe the visible degradation in supplies in a mere ten days. Today I did my first grocery shopping with my usual non regulated price items and it was, I kid you not, at least 25% above what I paid last time. More worryingly, since I still can afford for the time being, my deli was out of all but the strict basics. That is, no salami, no biscotto ham, etc...That already meager shelf when compared to more civilized countries was simply empty.

But the bewilderment was stronger as I started catching up with the politics. Oh my, oh my....

So many things have happened that it would be too long to come back on them. We had, for example, a show of force from the real owners of the jail systems, the pranes also known as "negative leaders". These mafia-thug-narco-whatever characters come and go from jail where they reside because, well, it is safer for them to reside in there. More protection from their body guards. One, "el conejo", the rabbit, went to a party and was shot on his way back to jail. Margarita was in turmoil as the pissed off inmates displayed even war weaponry with the public order unable to do much about it. Another one in Maracay got his lieutenant shot and demanded that the northern part of Maracay observe mourning the day of the funeral. All shops and schools had to close down, the police and army unable to protect them from the wrath of his supporters.

But that is not the only place where the regime is making water. On the political front it is not doing so good either. The opposition MUD is slowly but surely putting Maduro in a legal trap that will force this one to either kick the table and make a coup, or leave office. This is actually not hard: the National Assembly has simply started to doing its job which includes a review of laws, and its controlling function of holding hearings to ask ministers how the money is spent. That alone is sending the regime in a frenzy. Ministers are courting "desacato" which means that they are refusing to attend normal hearings (in particular the son in law of Chavez who probably thinks he is royalty) and thus risk sanctions that could go as far as brief jail stints.

Vituperation against the Assembly is reaching new heights, which is not good because the backroom negotiations that we know are taking place could be irremediably damaged. But then again this is what the pro Cuban radicals and the narco corrupt sectors want. The highest shriek was this week when Maduro publicly insulted in the vilest form Lorenzo Mendoza of the Polar group who had been too polite when he sent the message that the crisis was too bad to keep going at these silly games the regime was playing. The insults included direct threats. Threats also came from Diosdado Cabello.

What can we make of this?

First, the obvious, the regime is out of arguments and thus it uses procacious and violent words to silence adversaries. Classical. But if Chavez with oil at 100 could get away with it; Maduro with empty shelves and dead babies cannot.

Clearly there is a tug of war inside the regime that explains that exasperation, that refusal for any type of negotiation, or even recognition from the "establishment" of the regime towards the MUD. From their growing loss of privileges to the progressive realization that a lot of them will have to face the consequences of years of looting and assorted misdeeds comes that growing despair and political mistakes. I know, I have already stated such many times but I think this time it is different, the ground is shifting fast inside chavismo as the crisis is leaving no respite.

This is what I think is going on.

Maduro is the voice of Cuba. They are probably already not receiving the cash they used to receive but the Venezuelan situation now makes it nearly impossible to keep sending them anything. Either we starve or they do. I doubt that the military will accept to shoot at food riots to allow Maduro to keep sending Cuba's allowance. But the army has been infiltrated by a Cuban security. How do you deal with that?

Cabello and the narcos have rallied Maduro because at this point they have no other choice. For all practical purpose the National Assembly loss per se did not undo Cabello, the magnitude of the loss did it. You do not survive such a rejection and thus he is everyone's favorite scapegoat.

But the regime has again wasted precious time, two solid months without any sensible economic measures and things got worse. In fact we are learning that they are importing expensive and useless banknotes that will push further inflation while the remaining gold reserves are been negotiated to postpone by a couple of months default. The drop of Venezuelan bonds indicate clearly that all expect default before the end of the year. In other words, it is clear for all that the regime will not change its policies. It does not want to. It cannot do it. It would not know how to do it. And it does not has the people to do it anyway. We are stuck. Regime change or massive repression are the only options.

The MUD opposition, give or take a few, is doing the only thing it can do, stay as close as possible to the law. That is enough to push the regime over the brink. It has offered to negotiate a deal but it takes two to negotiate and this apparently will not happen now. Two months after the election surely we would have seen some semi solid evidence. No? Thus the opposition keeps pushing, opening the cracks inside chavismo, hoping, against all hope?, that some sensible group emerges.

One thing is certain, any civil war that may start will not start from the opposition but within chavismo. The opposition has no weapons, the factions of the regime have. Look at what happened with the pranes armies these past couple of weeks. They can start a war if they want. And the army knows that very well.

Meanwhile the army is deciding whether it will allow Cuba to starve Venezuelans.

This all will be played rather fast, if you ask me. We are talking weeks here.

Stay bewildered. It will help.

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Mille e tre

Se sia brutta, se sia bella

I was in shock today going to my local grocery store after ten days out of the country. I was not expecting any improvement in the scarcity crisis but I was not expecting such clear degradation within a week. After all, the last week in January is the one where we are supposed to reopen business in full after the month and a half closing for the holidays. The least one would hope is that returning products would compensate for disappearing ones, for a few days, until all goes down the drain, say, late February. But it looks that wee will not have that luxury.

Madamina, il catalogo e' questo

I did not have time to look in details, first day at work, but that was I saw, or did not: lots of holes in all shelves. There was no pasta, not even the expensive imported Italian. No dish washing detergent.  No cereal whatsoever, not even some disgusting sugary concoction still available for kids. In fact, Coke had replaced cereal in its shelves. No tuna, even though it has gone a lot in price. Etc...

un catalogo egli è che [Lorenzo, not da Ponte] fatt'io

Of course, what is happening is simply what this blog narrative has been consistent about, "la costanza". There is no raw material henceforth, no production. The political humdrum welcoming me, much more important than grieving jails in Margarita, is the heptalogue of Lorenzo Mendoza about what the regime must do NOW, THIS INSTANT, WITHOUT ANY FURTHER DELAY before disaster strikes. I am not going to give you the details, I would need more than a post, and, besides, regural readers already can guess. What we need is regime change because reform at this point will not do anymore. Lorenzo did not say that but it is the inescapable conclusion of his words: he said what needs to be done and we all know that the regime is absolutely unable to do even a tenth of what is listed.

in Turchia novantuna

But Lorenzo went further than his proposal, he blew away the miserable half-assed actions that the regime has undertaken in recent days to try to cover up its failure at getting anything done anywhere, the more so that its emergency decree was rejected as it should have been. For example Lorenzo observed that in all those "mesas de trabajo" held to find solutions to the crisis, the Polar Group, the biggest, by far, food producing company in Venezuela was not invited to attend. Meaning that any regime plan that does not account for the only actor that can truly do something about the crisis is doomed to fail. And to nail in the point Lorenzo gave numbers, and deadly ones. He said that to import what Polar can produce with the 5.900 million dollars the regime allocated then the regime would have to spend 93.300 millions. In other words, Polar is 18 times more productive/efficient than the regime's bureaucrats.  The problem is not the private enterprise, it is the regime.

Osservate, leggete con me

Of course, the regime was not amused by the words of Lorenzo Mendoza, who were passed by Globovision that was punished again by the regime. But it is not going to stop there. We heard already heavy batteries shooting at Lorenzo from diverse quarters and tonight it came from Diosdado Cabello personally who said on his TV talk show that Lorenzo has received himself the 5.500 millions of dollars and thus became the richest man in the world. Why would the richest man in the world still reside in Venezuela he did not explain. But then again the audience he addressed such words is not the type of audience that delves in such finesse. Fancy fencing times are over, this is rude butcher knives throwing times.

...donne d'ogni grado,
D'ogni forma, d'ogni età

Meanwhile the currency reaches new records in the black market and lines for all are reaching new records. My black market person informed me today that he is not receiving goods, that there is not enough reaching the store so that he cannot resell some on the side. Apparently there is a certain percentage he was allowed to "buy" but now either there is not enough or he is outbid by other colleagues. How am I going to do to support not only me but those that I support because they cannot stand in line for hours, well, you tell me.... Anyone knows a good black-marketeer?

Voi sapete quel che fa........

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Emergency decree is down. We may be the better for it

A little bit busy these days so I will be fast.

The regime tried to force through an "economic emergency decree" which was a mere diktat to make communism a reality in 60 days. You could read it all here, before most pundits tired to think about it, or worse, to pretend that there was some redeeming value somewhere. Usually pundits from brainy places like Forbes who can only think about a return on an investment that they were foolish enough to give to a country whose bloggers were active and announcing disaster since 2003. But I digress.


Since everyone knew that this was a mere propaganda ploy to try to put the blame of the crisis on the opposition (a mere trap Castro style), the Assembly majority MUD organized the only response it could do for the time being: call for hearings knowing they would be stood up. This was very simple to get because the Assembly decided that the hearings should be open to the press like it happens in EVERY democracy on earth unless it is about national security, as in ISIS about to bomb you. But apparently the state of bankruptcy of the nation is such that it cannot be revealed in public. Thus the ministers use that excuse to bail out at the last minute. Score 1 to 1 on propaganda. And I am generous to the regime.

The parliamentary commission named to inquire on the decree ruled that without economic data, that without at least announcing some the of the expected measures to be taken (the decree had no specifics) the emergency could not be approved. The following full debate today pointed out among other things that the country had been ruled by chavismo through 17 years, and that there had been enough enabling laws to emit enough decree laws for the regime to deal with whatever it needed to deal with. The emergency decree was thus duly voted down. The government was welcome to send in new and more explicit proposals and they will be speedily examined. And that is that.

Now what?

I am not sure what leverage the regime got out of that wrestling match. Probably some, there were enough idiots that though the national assembly would open the gates to cheap and abundant corn flour. But me thinks that those who voted for the opposition MUD in December knew exactly why they voted for them and hot air from the regime is not going to play much if actually some stuff does not appears on the shelves soon. Period. After all, they have been used to abundant freebies for years coming from Chavez. If then, why not know? Why not for the last two years? If the "economic war" cannot be won by Maduro maybe, just maybe, he should be replaced by one that can win it. No?

The fact of the matter is elsewhere.  The regime has no idea what to do and I can vouch for that. Many clients and providers have been summoned to many meetings in recent days. Hysteria grows by the day. To give you an example, one of them told me that they got an urgent mail from ministry X to send them in 24 hours a list of what they could start exporting as soon as possible so the permits could be processed fast. Without inquiring about the supplies and dollars they would need to be able to produce enough for the local market to then be able to export..........  [sigh, deep sigh.... shit like that does not appear in economic pages, just in blogs].

So the regime tries to blame the opposition and the janitor and his dog.

But no matter what, the reality is there. In my opinion default is unavoidable because there is no money to pay what needs to be paid this year EVEN if oil were to go back up to, say, 35 USD a barrel by fall. Even starving Venezuelans will not avoid default AND allow at the same time to send Cuba whatever meager allowance can still be sent. Maduro and Cabello and Padrino can refuse to visit the National Assembly, and close it, and send the MUD representatives to the execution wall, that reality is not going to change. What needs to change is the economic system but any change is impossible because the regime would unravel in weeks.

The question is not whether Venezuela is going to the IMF, but when. There is nowhere else to go at this point.

Of course there might be those who think that PODEMOS in Spain or Correa in Ecuador or Evo in Bolivia are going to come and bail us out. Bwahahahahah.....

So I feel good tonight because I read this whole week as getting us close to the end. Whatever the end is, it cannot be postponed much longer. Just go and visit a grocery store.

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Where to start?

The economic emergency decree?

As readers already know this decree is a fraud and cannot be accepted as presented. The Assembly knows it is a vulgar trap to try to put the blame of the crisis on the opposition (which will not work chavismo is misreading the whole thing badly). So the opposition will examine the decree, and will reject it based on some of its glaring lacks suggesting politely that the regime reviews it.

Then we will see what happens. The only good thing that may come from this confrontation is that it may be a fake one used while the real negotiations take place behind closed door.

Presidential commission to solve the crisis?

Yesterday Maduro summoned hundreds of people to an act at the Teresa Carreño, once upon a time the show room of Chavez. Now Maduro need to summon people to fill it up. This being said the top of the private sector still alive was requested to attend, and came. As if they had another option. And out of the proceeding Maduro named a few commissions where an occasional objective person was sit. These commissions are supposed to draft the measures around 9 motors of the economy to get us out of the crisis,.

Nobody explained where the dollars would come from.

I am not holding my breath.

Is Merentes an oriental sheikh?

The scandal defraying tabloids is that Merentes beach home has been robbed. He was alleviated for 300.000 USD, about 50.000 euros and a few expensive watches. Nothing more. The robbers need not break in, they had the keys and wore masks as they had been told about surveillance cameras,  The first question is of course: what the fuck is the president of the Central Bank of Venezuela doing with 300.000 USD in his beach appartement?  Does he not know of a safe bank where to deposit that?

But it gets better: Merentes is not pressing charges, Records are diligently erased and what we know comes from press investigations who get the police sorces to speak, Apparently Merentes is a patron of his hometown of Naiguata. Many surgeries, home fixing, pot holing come through his intercession. The medical part is more interesting as it seems that several of surgeries were not of a nature to save a life threatening condition.  Young girls under age got significant "enhancements" and became mistresses of Merentes for a short while. I suppose until the next one was fully healed.  It is possible that the silence, perhaps even accomplice, of the parents was bought.

And Merentes would have been robbed several times but this time it was a little bit too much and he could not hide it as well. One of the girl, probably a favorite lasting more than the usual even got a set of the keys for convenience so she could get ready for action as soon as Merentes arrived from Caracas.

The question here is which is the worst criminal offense: pedophilia or smuggling illegal amounts of foreign currency that he helped himself out from the Central Bank reserves. In Venezuela morality and ethics are distorted.

Torture of women?

IF all of this was not bad enough get ready for the worst. In her latest visit to Leopoldo Lopez in jail his wife, Lilian Tintori, and Lopez's mother were sent to a different room where they were forced to get naked in front of their kids. Lilian was on the rag and she had to take it off and show to a guard. The director of the center a little while later published an evangelical psalm. He is a christian, you know.

It is to be noted that such a physical abuse made with an excruciatingly lengthy care by female guards (it is my own personal experience that female military are in general way worse than the male ones) is designed to also create psychological damage and it is hence a form of torture.

And that is exactly what happened, OAS secretary Almagro condemned what was done to Lilian Tintori. Though if you read a pro chavismo canard like Panorma, they do cite the tweet of Almagro but in the title you read "reproach", not condemn. Note: Almagro is not the lone international voice criticizing. Only the regime seems to ignore the gravitas that Lilian Tintori has gained.

Conclusion?

The regime is going to keep its show and dance until the end, and at any chance it will play dirty. There are already fake videos presented by Cabello trying to exculpate the commandeer of Ramo Verde where Lopez is jailed.

There are certain red lines that the regime simply cannot accept to yield on: an amnesty law; punishing an abusive military; impunity for high officials is a must; the economic crisis is going to be solved by us and no one else, even if we created it which everyone of course knows they cannot solve anything anymore; the USD are ours to do as we please.

Now, tell me, where do we start dialogue there?
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The tweet from another president supporter to Tintori: Laura Chinchilla

Sólo los COBARDES, son valientes contra los indefensos. Estamos con @liliantintori#Venezuela #ultraje #repudio pic.twitter.com/6yvI4h3mMh

— Laura Chinchilla M (@Laura_Ch) January 19, 2016

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La fuite en avant or is it La politique du pire ?

French political language is rich and dates from the French Revolution where between 1789 and 1815, depending on how you count, up to 12 government systems could be identified. There are two sentences that need to be used for this entry. La fuite en avant refers as when you have no option but just make a run for it straight ahead and hope for the best (escaping straight ahead). La politique du pire refers to make the situation worse in the hope that people will want to go back to a past situation because it was less worse, grammatical mistake on purpose. Or to destroy everything so no one can do anything against you.

Today we can use BOTH expressions.


But before I keep going on you need to understand that the regime is acting as it does because its top leaders know full well that if a semi functional Assembly manages to get hold too many of them will end in jail. If you do not understand that then maybe what comes next will make little sense to you.

The mechanic of Wednesday events started with a series of videos summarized in a Tal Cual entry. These videos explicitly show how all the Chavez propaganda at the National Assembly was taken down Tuesday evening. But that is not the real story. These videos which pretend to be amateur are, I am sure of it, a carefully thought provocation by the new chair of the Assembly, Ramos Allup. Among other things he says that the only pictographie allowed in the Assembly are the official classic portraits of Simon Bolivar, that the necrophiliac reconstruction of Bolivar by Chavez was something crazy and that it should be taken with all the rest to Sabaneta (Chavez birth place) or Miraflores Palace or the trash, that he could not care less but all had to go.

Sure enough the assembly was under siege by chavista supporters Wednesday night...

So why did Ramos Allup took such a chance? Because he knows that a confrontation with the regime is unavoidable. It is going to happen, it is just a calendar question and Ramos Allup has decided that he will hold the calendar of the confrontation. So far at least today he is proven right: chavismo at Wednesday's session was out of itself to the point of hearing stupid things like a decomposed Cabello saying that there will be no money for the Assembly. I suppose that he thinks that international lenders will come and approve loans to Venezuela that are not signed by its National Assembly.....

Ramos Allup also proceeded into the swearing in of the dismissed representatives of Amazonas (though apparently they are refraining from voting). This is the other side of the coin. It may look as a provocation but as long as these never vote the decisions of the assembly cannot be judged illegal. On the other hand the blood thirsty radical wing of the opposition will get a bone to chew on while Ramos Allup woks on the really pressing matters.

In short, Ramos Allup got today the hysteria of the regime in full display showing them saying anything, preparing any thing to stop (or escape from?) the Assembly, la fuite en avant.

That night we got further regime reaction with the naming of the new Maduro government. I have not much to say on that except for a few points that are telling enough.

First, the regime has decided to cave in its radical left. Luis Salas is the new coordinator of the economy. He is a "professor" at the bolivarian university founded by Chavez to "form" all the public administration he needs. Objectivity has never been a value taught at the UBV. He has worked with PODEMOS in Spain. And if that is enough to scare you to death, you just need to read the titles of his opus at Aporrea where you can find gems like "The price of gas as a fetish" or "Economic war and social war. The mafiosi and paramilitary code behind the fascist violence". Yes, an "economic professor" penned title that a serious blogger would never dare to pen.

In his team we have a Caracas PSUV candidate defeated and now available to occupy a seat in an administration in search of its Kerensky. For commerce Maduro named Jesus Farias, a guy holding a positon in the Communist Party until 2007. As if a commie had any idea about what "Exterior Commerce and Foreign Investment" was all about.

At least for some levity Maduro also appointed someone for the banking system that has an idea of what is to be done. He also named for Vice President the governor of Anzoategui, Aristobulo Isturiz, a survivor of pre Chavez years, just like Ramos Allup.

What can we conclude from that? The regime is unable to change its economical system. It simply cannot. So Maduro names the most radical wing to the economy position, to increase further controls as if it were possible. La politique du pire, burnt earth... And the creation of a ministry of "Urban Agriculture" is not going to make us avoid starvation.

But on the other hand the regime has not solved its internal contradictions and the side aware that things have changed has managed to put someone to try not to see the banks fold, and perhaps the only person in the regime that can negotiate a settlement with Ramos Allup: Isturiz. (1)

The only problem here is that I wonder if Maduro has the luxury of time anymore. If he persists in listening to people like Salas that are convinced that the country can produce enough just if capitalism is flushed out then he may be in for a rude awakening. He lost on 6D in 23 de Enero and they are just across the street from Miraflores.

I cannot believe that our hopes are now solely on Isturiz shoulders!

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1) Besides the impression that reaching to lunatics like Salas show that Maduro is short on people willing to work with him, we should note that Venezuela has a 1.500 million dollar bond issue coming to term. Can anyone imagine Salas negotiating an extension? Is default a near certainty? Is this why Medina went banking control, to prepare for default?

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Meanwhile, let's check back at the ranch

While Caracas gets ready for tomorrow's hoe down let's check out what are the wheat and cattle yields at the ranch. The picture is grim.


It is certainly near impossible these days to get reliable figures of anything. So the devoted reader will have to take me at face value.

I can tell you that the animal protein production of the country is spiraling down, fast, as the regime is not allowing for the importation of what is required for animal feed. And since the Venezuelan crops are not too good, and must be used first for human feed (deficient amounts per se), you get the picture. For example poultry production stands at 50% of its potential and going down. Well, that is what I was told late November. I see nothing to improve that number and I suspect it is lower today.

If you want more subjective pictures hang around a supermarket. There are less lines. But because there is nothing coming in. If you are into luxury items like fresh produce, yogurt, milk, you can still sort of find. Yes, I include milk in the luxury items. The latest case of UHT milk I bought, "Mi Vaca" brand, cost me 3500 for 12 liters. That is 291 VEB per liter. In dollar it is nothing but in minimum wage percentile it is ruinous: 290/9500*100= 3.1% (rounding numbers).

That is right, the only milk available for the last three months represents 3% of the MONTHLY minimum wage for a single liter. I do not remember the last time I bought fresh milk; and powder milk at controlled price arrives, if ever, at some governmental store. For all practical purposes the regime has yielded and allows production of UHT skim milk with limited controls as the only occasional source of milk.

I can still manage because I do not eat either meat or arepas and I can afford milk, but I wonder how the hoi polloi makes it.

If you want even more subjective....  Tradition had that at midnight on Christmas eve and New Year's eve there were all sorts of private fireworks, some spectacular (people literally love to blow their money). In Caracas the smoke cloud used to be thick enough to dim the city lights. This is over. And poor pets went crazy days before as at anytime some jerk would blast out something somewhere. This is over too. Pets are happy. Christmas fireworks were sparse and lasted a few minutes. New Year's works did last a little bit longer than the ones on the 24 but the air remained clean and 15 minutes after midnight it was all over. The crisis has struck everyone, no money for fireworks this year.

And presents were scarce also. Not only the offerings were limited but the prices were out of reach. People offered food. A jar of imported marmalade was considered a nice present.

The real problem is unfortunately elsewhere. The regime is doing nothing. NOTHING structural. And the very few initiatives taken these past few weeks consisted in increasing taxes, put new controls and approve today, on the very last day of the outgoing assembly, huge special lame duck credits that basically leave the coffers empty for a while without Maduro needing to request money tot he incoming Assembly.

It is not idle to state that a lot of the last minute desperate maneuvers of the regime may be illegal since supposedly the Maduro cabinet was asked to resign a few days after 6D election. To this writing Maduro has yet to name a new cabinet and I doubt that a caretaker administration can request the funds demanded to an outgoing assembly that did not even bother to gather in full, letting such a momentous vote go to a "comision delegada", a substitute of congress strictly for control and emergency measures until the assembly can be called back out of its normal sessions.

All the recent measures, to give them a name, could have been easily accomplished through a feeble gas hike instead of increasing taxes and pushing further into the nation (the measures are special credits out of budget). The only rational explanation I can come up with is that the regime is planning an election in the next few months and is refusing to deal with the mess in the vain hope to pin it on the opposition.

Now I must stop, time to see if anything arrived at the grocery store nearby today.

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In extremely reluctant praise of Ramos Allup

Today the MUD coalition voted on who would be the chair for the first year tenure of the National Assembly elected on 6D (NA). The winner is Henri Ramos Allup (1). I am very far from overjoyed but I also must make a great effort to understand the historic moment.

The new troika: majority whip (Borges) MUD secretary
(Torrealba) and NA chair (Ramos)

The negative first.

Henri Ramos Allup is the secretary of Accion Democratica, AD, the old grand party of the pre Chavez years. From the wreckage he did save some of the furniture but at the cost of being a kind of little tyrant, happily purging a few, in a very chavista way. But the reader should keep in mind that chavismo is mostly coming from the AD low rung hacks that were kept in check for their hardheadedness, incompetence and the like. Once unleashed we saw the dramatic results over these last 15 years of looting and incompetence. I am not pinning on these transfuges the narco state: that one comes straight from Fidel Castro and the FARC who had no problem recruiting into the diverse lumpen that joined Chavez.


But what is perhaps the greatest fault of Ramos Allup is his unwillingness to clean up a little bit around himself. Namely, he has many direct and indirect relatives involved with or working for companies that have got sweet and questionable deals from the regime. This does not mean at all that Ramos Allup himself benefited on any of these deals (I think he married rich or something anyway, and I am certainly not in a position to address that issue). The problem is that such relations have been pointed out routinely by many people. Investigative blogs have been written about companies like Derwick or suspicious contractors, and Ramos Allup response has been to block you on Twitter, avoid answers, etc. Dodge the ball, defended on that by people like Rafael Poleo who should have known better.

It is thus with great concern that some of us watch the election of Ramos Allup at the NA chair. We are sure that during his one year tenure little progress will be made on certain type of urgently needed investigations (amen of other issues dear to this blogger).

The positive, if I must.

We need to understand the political moment of the country. The chair of the new National Assembly will be the punching ball of the regime in desperate need to create an enemy. Since Ramos Allup is already a despicable entity for the regime, the opposition has nothing to lose promoting him. Ramos has thick skin, he can take anything the regime sends his way.

Ramos Allup has what we call in Venezuela pico de plata, silver tongue. So, not only he can take what the regime sends his way, but he can reply on the spot, on the mark, knowing how to dose carefully how outrageous he needs to be to make a point. That much I need to grant him: he may be the best around for that quality, the one needed to begin that difficult and dangerous transition process we are facing.

Ramos Allup is elected NA chair because the majority inside the MUD is center left. No other party besides AD has a national figure in that group. The other "national" candidate, Julio Borges leads a more to the center group. Even though he has the largest party, Primero Justicia, inside the MUD his natural allies are missing because either he shooed them away or they did not get enough seats. So Borges will need to seat this one out, paying for some of his political mistakes like alienating Leopoldo Lopez people who should have never been voting for Ramos Allup. In short, whether we like it being irrelevant, Ramos Allup is one of the two lone national figures seating in the new parliament. And we cannot do without a national figure for at least 2016.

Ramos Allup has abundant experience in Parliament work. That is the only thing he has done all of his life. Dealing with the regime's PSUV bent on sabotaging ANYTHING we need a wily fox at the helm until the newcomers learn how to manage things. That is the way politics work, sorry.

It does not hurt that Ramos Allup has had time to make many friends over seas to the point of being an important voice of the Socialist International (currently one of its many vice presidents).  Let me remind the reader that some of the strongest support for the MUD against the regime has come from many luminaries of the SI like ex Spain premier Felipe Gonzalez.

Finally I would not worry too much about his mark on the National Assembly direction: he is put there to face the required theater/play against the regime. The legislative work will be done by the rest of Assembly board. In particular it seems that Julio Borges will be the majority whip which means he will be the one setting the true priorities of the incoming assembly, as well as herding a majority that soon will show strain in holding its unity, a role Borges may be suited for.

So there you are, whether we like it we must recognize that Ramos Allup is a better fit for the political moment. But worry not, that political moment will vary very, very fast.


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1) Ramos Allup blocks me on his twitter account, as he blocks A LOT of people according to my Twitter account. In short any one that seems to disagree strongly with Ramos is blocked. Not as very good sign for someone presiding a Parliament, and who needs not to read or answer to tweets. So, if you have a twitter account pass that info to @hramosallup before he gets into international ridicule for blocking his account. NOTE: I have NEVER insulted him, just questioned his familial dubious links.

For witness this tweet from someone blocked by Ramos Allup wishing he could read the message of conciliation and harmony that the new chair is supposed to have sent. (Sigh!)

Si tan solo pudiera leerlo https://t.co/kLYQV9fL9Z

— Edgar Baptista (@edgarmanuel) January 4, 2016

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2015-2016 continuum

Something strange happened to me over the holiday: I did not see the new year coming. At least not politically. Until December 31 the regime has been busy at trying to find ways to sabotage the swearing in of January 5, taking away even the cameras from the National Assembly so that presumably there will be no way to record the ceremony (and whatever vulgarity the regime plans to do then; or to hide that Cabello will not be the chair anymore?).


Thus it felt a little bit empty to write a "Happy New Year" entry for a political blog whose readers are aware that there was no holiday break this year, not even for this blogger with, to boot, a delicate family situation over the holidays. Whatever holiday optimism I may have had was expressed at the Christmas post. Then we were back to business as usual. So, happy holiday new year wishes here and that is that.

On Tuesday 5 the new National Assembly will be sworn in. The MUD opposition victorious alliance has already called for a mass rally at "La Hoyada" which is a couple of blocks from the National Assembly (and conveniently empty from all the buhoneros stalls there as these go on vacation the first two weeks of January, until people receive their first paycheck of the year, all previous income having been wasted away in December).

The regime? We do not know for sure yet. "spontaneously" some colectivos (armed thug gangs cum storm troopers of the regime) are making hot air about defending the revolution. Too bad that one of the most famous colectivo, La Piedrita, has lost its district of 23 de Enero on December 6. Maybe no one told them?

We are expecting the MUD to announce who will be the new chair of the Assembly (and the two vice presidencies which will be equally important at least for the first months of its tenure). We may even know who the chairs of the main committee will be, and whether the MUD will offer as a peace gesture a couple of these chairs to the PSUV (which should reject them on any excuse to accuse the MUD of undemocratic attitude or something).

Then, if the newly elected representatives make it to the National Assembly safely (still not a certainty as the army is responsible for that and probably upset at the regime forcing it into an unnecessary awkward to dangerous situation) we need to see if they will seat the 4 representatives barred by the unconstitutional 3 days ago. Unfortunately I am afraid that the MUD has no choice but challenge the court and seat these 4 representatives since, no matter what, a constitutional clash is sought by the regime and we might as well get it over with.

If eventually the New Assembly is installed, before it can even face a "normal" legislative agenda it will need to face the following issues: secure the Assembly perimeter so that people can come and go for the sessions; deal with the problem of live TV coverage of the sessions which means tackling down the control of ANTV (already under work); confront the judicial power which I doubt very much will take it kindly a refusal to abide of its illegal ruling. That last one is a must because we can be pretty confident that if the Assembly decides to vote that during the day time the sun shines the court will overrule it as unconstitutional. The firing of 4 seats was merely the first shot.

And then it will be January 10 and I would not dare to make further forecasts.

On the negative side we have a regime that is fighting for its political survival as it is questioned more and more inside chavismo. So they will take all the risks that they need to take, make all the provocations that are required to justify the fuite en avant that they have undertaken.

On the positive side the world is not fooled and in spite of the holiday season many voices have risen to warn the regime that tampering with the results and not seating the new assembly is not an option.

We will see. Meanwhile you can pass the culinary abuses of the holidays watching Caracas extreme sports events in the coming days. I think that we have the pseudo-Chinese curse on us. "may you live in interesting times".

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The priorities ahead

And thus I am on December 28 in a hurry to write something as events keep going on in Venezuela. There is no time for a holiday pause. What, with the regime's shenanigans and the opposition division and only 7 days left for the new National Assembly to be sworn in!


The regime treachery has been exposed just before Christmas and they have remained quiet since. But it is just a lull, they are surely thinking about their next step. The opposition  reacted fast, a surprise for chavismo used by Chavez to do illegal stuff during holiday breaks. More important, the recent quiet  maybe due to divisions of chavismo as one side is getting tired of the acts of a minority only interested in saving their skins. The internal crumbling cannot be hidden anymore.

On the opposition side things have not been going well. Capriles, again, shot himself in the foot which maybe be a reflection of the delusion inside his party, Primero Justicia, at being the recognized leaders of the opposition. Apparently they seem to think that MUD label votes were pretty much PJ label votes. I am not going into the stupidities of Capriles, I am through with him. Let's just say that if his strategy helped for 6D vote, his humanity and political sense are now highly questioned.

So, in face of the current situation what should the opposition do first as of January 5?

What we need to be fully aware of is that a confrontation with the regime is unavoidable. The only things to be settled are the date and intensity of the confrontation. If all goes well we can hope that such confrontation will be an electoral one, not a violent one. And we can advance the latest date for the confrontation: December 2016 when governors's term ends. Yet four other electoral confrontation are possible depending on the degree of regime's despair.

Maduro may resign. New presidential elections need to be called to complete the six years term (1). This would be the wisest for the regime, to let the opposition burn itself dealing with the economic catastrophe next year. The problem with that option (and all others for that matter) is that it gives the opposition time to investigate the wasted oil bonanza of the last decade. In fact that option may be the worst one for the regime, as the ones discussed next give them time to prepare better some form of golden exile.

Maduro is stubborn and with the help of a portion of chavismo a recall election is called. This has to take place BEFORE summer as a later date could reach the fatal 4 year mark in the term and allow chavismo to seat an appointed vice president to complete the term (article #233 of the 1999 constitution). In short if the opposition choses or has to chose that way it should be decided by May at the latest considering the economic costs and the developing economic crisis. Note that the success of this maneuver depends on the electoral participation and the ability of the opposition to campaign actively.

Referendum/referenda for constitutional amendments. This could be a compromise between the opposition, the army and a sector of chavismo. This tool (#341) can be used in many ways, to free the judicial system of political control, to diminish the presidential power, to change electoral system, to approve reforms that the regime blocks, etc... It also has the advantage that it requires a simple majority inside the opposition so divisions are possible in case a faction decides to go to the dark side (yes, I am looking forward to see the new installment of the ninenalogy). The problem with this approach is that it depends on too many variables, one if the eventual willingness of Maduro to play the game and recognize defeat, accepting to stay in office just to preserve the "Chavez legacy", whatever that may mean. In short the regime would evolve into some form of parliamentary system where cohabitation is possible, French way.

Constitutional reform/assembly. The reform (#342) is a more extreme form of the referenda discussed above. This one would be to unseat the judicial system at large, change the electoral system and reestablish a bicameral congress as a way to create a containment wall against a fast return of chavismo, undo a persistent undue military influence and obtain the reinforcement of decentralization. The constitutional assembly (#348) is the ultimate weapon of mass destruction if the judicial power in the hands of chavismo is used in excess against any opposition initiative. The problem with a constitutional assembly is that it is a bomb that can sweep away all parties as the economy degenerates. On  the other hand it can be called at any time if the opposition retains the 2/3 vote, and can be called through signature gathering process and a referendum as long as the opposition retains a working majority.

So?

The consequence of the exposed above indicates that elections are on their way and the opposition needs to get ready for it from the very start, on January 6. For this it needs to do the following actions, ALL EQUALLY IMPORTANT.

Change the composition of the CNE to gain a 3 to 2 majority inside the electoral board.
If time allows modify some key sections of the electoral law and work on gerrymandering negative effects for regional elections of December 2016.

Free political prisoners as everyone is needed on board to campaign, while annulling some of the resentment appearing due, among others, Capriles foot in mouth approach to politics.

Improve access to all parties to media, which means reform the CONATEL law that gives CONATEL too much punishing control over media, return of RCTV network, change ANTV into a true form of C-span, and more. There is no need to investigate the suspicious purchase of some media as those ones have less and less rating. Just allowing for new blood will be enough to finish off this mercenaries (I am looking at you, Universal, Ultimas Noticias, Globovision, etc...)

Change the law on the comptroller office which allows this one by fiat to bar anyone to run for election if it so pleases the regime. It is enough to demand that for barring someone to run for office a fair trial with its subsequent verdict are necessary. And make it retroactive.

And more but those ones are the crucial. The point is that all of these can be voted within three months and be made effective by June.

Of course, these must be made while the assembly attends other extremely urgent matters but nobody said that the work of the New Assembly would be easy and cool.

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