Extraordinarily newsworthy day in the battle for democracy

I thought already when I was writing the communism decree that the regime wants to pass would be quite something already for a single day. I even started publishing it before I finished or corrected such was my state of discombobulation.  But tonight there is yet two more news, maybe more important because that decree can still be rejected by the Assembly. But apparently there are bigger fishes to fry.

President Maduro finally came tonight for his state of the Union. The speech was long, vapid, misleading when not blurting outrageous lies when vaunting the "successes" of 2015. The excitement came through the fact that he showed up when a few days ago it seemed that the rebelliousness of Diosdado Cabello with the support of some judges could carry the day and send the Assembly into nothingness. This can still happen but I have big doubts tonight about it ever happening.


The Assembly "caved in" and suspended for a while the controversial representatives and thus Cabello and the Court had no other option but to recognize the validity of the Assembly for the time being. Thus showeth up Maduro.

All fine and dandy. The speech is given in cadena, that is, simultaneous mandatory broadcast on all audio visual media. ALL. Important detail for later. The speech lasted for over two jours but I only connected to it through the end, following it on tweeter before (see my time line for highlights in Spanish or English according to assumed public, on the right side of this blog).

Maduro said nothing besides his usual assortment of insults and what not. Yet he seemed rather subdued, a little bit lost. At the end, as expected, he handed the microphone to Ramos Allup as chair of the Assembly which we would have thought would limit himself to pronounce the protocolar farewell. It was not. Ramos Allup launched himself in a big speech.

Now, why was this speech so important, well managed by the way considering the ordeal that today must have been for him today?

You need to know that just like in the US, all powers are represented (5 in Venezuela, 4 of them clapping at any inanity of Maduro; in the US no Justice would be caught dead applauding a president at SOTU!). You need to know that when Ramos Allup took over the cadena continued and the state TV, VTV,which was the only one allowed to transmit live on airwaves remained fixed on Ramos Allup the whole time, probably waiting for the order to cut off, an order that never came. It was the first time in 17 years that the country saw a cadena by someone else than a chavista stating the official line. Thus the fixation and the novelty gave more reach to Ramos Allup than he may have deserved.

Of course the response of Ramos Allup was civil but frequently mischievous in pointing out the flaws in Maduro's speech. But what made the reply to Maduro a hit were the following, in no order of importance:

- VTV and state media attack him all the time, which is OK, he does not care (I have got my mileage he said). What is not OK is that he does not have the right to reply. VTV et.al. addicts cannot pretend to ignore that anymore. The more so that the biggest vilifier of Ramos Allup and the opposotion is Diosdado Cabello show "con el mazo dando".

- He looked at the other three powers and reminded them that the only two sovereign powers, those elected by the people were the president and the Assembly and thus the other three were "derivative" powers. That is pointed at a time when one, the judicial power, is trying to unseat representatives without even the semblant of a trial (never mind of the well documented treacheries of the other two)

- He addressed the attending military top brass and explained them that the Bolivar that Chavez invented IS NOT the historical one, helping his cause with pictures and quotes. He explained that there was no room for ANY president portrait in a National Assembly. He went ahead and told them that the army was not there to do politics and he finished by making it crystal clear that neither Maduro nor him wanted a coup of any type.  Reminding them, by the way, that about two weeks before April 2002 he was on record that there was a military coup in preparation against Chavez.

Now, guess who was the real target of this speech? Maduro? Guess again.

I think that what happened tonight besides revealing to the hard core chavismo what parliamentary democracy is all about, is that Ramos Allup offered his hand to Maduro to deal with the economic crisis together AND, most importantly AND, get rid of Diosdado Cabello who is managing to put everyone against himself without solving a simple problem.

It is of course a big gambit if what I write is right. After all, a reader could reply, Ramos Allup is on record to want to remove Maduro from office in the next 6 months.  But the difference here, clearly expressed tonight, is that Ramos Allup does not have any particular grief against Maduro, he just wants the system gone. So, he implies, we can either prepare an honorable exit for Maduro (resigning or constitutional shortening of the term, a mere referendum would suffice) or a nastier one. The villain here, for all, is Diosdado Cabello. And you could sense that the message had been received in the rather subdued declarations Cabello gave to the press when the ceremony was over.

And since I am speculating might as well go for it. Ramos Allup offer is that if Cabello tones down or retires he will not surrender him to the DEA. As long as he remains in Venezuela in quiet retirement he can enjoy his loot (though I am sure he will be asked to return a portion of the stolen one). The offer to Maduro is that the opposition will help him taking some hard measures but the condition is that power is shared. That is, the judicial illegal nominations be reverted and the electoral board becomes truly neutral. This is the red line. Then if Maduro cannot go all the way with the necessary economic measures he can resign and retire in Venezuela, at least for a while. Or have his term shortened through a constitutional amendment that can be voted on fast, without any campaign needed. And all of this gives time tot he army to clean up its act and pick among themselves the 2-3 generals that must be sacrificed to the DEA so the other can remain free, as long as they do not leave Venezuela.

You know, I have the nagging feeling that the whole show was sort of planned by Ramos and the new Vice President Isturriz...... And probably worked out much better than the two wily coyotes ever hoped it would.

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Judicial coup for dummies

So I am late into the fray, just learning about an hour ago what the High Court has done today. See, I live in reality. I had a delicate situation with my S.O. and, besides appointments, part of the day was to look all around for rather simple antibiotics, and pain killers and anti inflammatory pills. We found two of them, not the ones recommended by the physician albeit acceptably less suitable alternatives.

In a waiting room I got wind of the declarations of the new minister for urban agriculture. I found the video tonight (at end of this entry). Indeed, she wants everyone to grab a tin can, and empty bottle, put some dirt and recycle the roots of any vegetable we can, starting with green onions.

Today we also learned that Venezuela oil barrel has reached its lowest price since 2002.

Recycling the root system of green onions? Can I plant pot instead so as to escape reality?

All of this to give you a little context for what comes next.


The battle between the electoral hall of the high court (e-TSJ for short) and democracy keeps apace. The e-TSJ has decided today (even though they should be on judicial holiday) that seating the representatives for Amazonas was illegal and puts the National Assembly into contempt. And thus ANY decision of the N.A. is void and will be.

There is no point in going back into the detail of the contentious. For recall what the e-TSJ has done is illegal for many reasons: all appeals in front of the electoral board CNE have not been exhausted; there is no legal emergency; even with three seats less the N.A. can vote on 99% of laws it  needs to vote on; the e-TSJ first ruling came during judicial holiday; the e-TSJ has no right to void an election without some form of trial; etc.; etc.; and without mentioning that the allegations of fraud committed in Amazonas, even if true, pale in comparison to the accusations of fraud for every chavista candidate elsewhere.

Clearly, electoral justice is the least concern of the e-TSJ. The objective is elsewhere.

The objective is to stop the N.A. work before it has a chance to start hearings and voting laws that will limit or erase the power of the chavista elite. Complicated by whatever internal fight chavismo is having.

That is why a faction of chavismo, more than likely led by Diosdado Cabello as Maduro has more to lose in such a confrontation, uses the courts to undo the Assembly election. Going to the point of threatening the dismissal of the N.A. with the TSJ taking upo its functions until X.

The reactions of the N.A. were equally previsible. And the N.A. vice chair stated that they were not going to respect a "political" ruling of the e-TSJ.

It is also an excellent opportunity to remember a December 12, 2014 article in El Pais from Spain, English section where it is explained that

reviewed 45,474 sentences issued between 2004 and 2014 by the political, electoral and constitutional chambers at Venezuela’s Supreme Courts - in charge of government oversight. The group published the results in a new book, El TSJ al servicio de la revolución (Editorial Galipan), which it is distributing in the country in an almost clandestine manner. Analysts and journalists see this thick book as a gem. The main conclusion of this long essay is that the Supreme Court has never delivered a sentence against the government.

My emphasis. I rest my case, the e-TSJ ruling has nothing to do with electoral justice. This is a judicial coup in progress where a partisan named court will undo the popular will exerted through perfectly legal, even if biased, elections.

That is all.

So, what next?

Certain argue that the N.A. and Ramos Allup acted harshly, that after all they could start doing a few things with the 109 other seats. That they should have waited even if it left Amazonas without representation at a crucial time.

Others, like the ones rejecting the ruling, think that there is no other way but to confront.

I side with the later for various reasons.

- The e-TSJ "ruling" is not the first, it is already the second and there is already clear evidence that more is coming. The ex-chair of the TSJ has said it so, anticipating today's e-ruling (I have written a lot on her, Luisa Estela Morales Lamuño, in this blog).

- Avoiding a confrontation is useless. Postponing may make sense but when the regime attacks first you need to reply and up the ante.

- This is a thugocracy/kleptocracy/drug-lord-ocracy. Legal elegance is something that flies way above their heads. Accepting any thing from them is just the same as validating their crimes and pushing them forward.

A coup, violence, is unavoidable because the leader of the violent is Diosdado Cabello and he sees in his future an orange suit. Unfortunately there are dozens that also are looking at different ways to wear orange. If anyone disagrees with me they are welcome to explain why I am wrong.

Considering the reality that I live in I am painfully aware that what the regime seeks is to delay any action from the National Assembly and this will be leaving el pueblo, me, with neither food nor medicine. But, my friends, confronting or not the regime IS NOT going to speed up the solution to our problems. We can be only sure of one thing: as long as Maduro and Cabello are in charge, nothing, absolutely nothing will get fixed. They cannot fix it. They cannot care less.

Might as well go for it.

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There is an older video of this weirdo saying that she would pinch the balls of any gringo landing in Venezuela during the uproar of the DEA putting narco-personnel on its lists. I suppose her agricultural project include also planting pot at home?

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A confusing but clarifying week

With the National Assembly swearing-in show and the collateral that came next Venezuela has experienced one of its most confusing weeks - but maybe one of its best ones-

Saddamization

The thread at the N.A. is simple. Chavismo could not find a way to stop its coming Götterdämmerung. So they came, saw and left. They could not avoid their first encounter with a free press in about a decade. Some of the questions were truly embarrassing like when a journalist was finally able to stand on the way of Cilia Flores and ask her about her narco-nephews. Not her nephews in jail in the US awaiting trial, but her NARCO-nephews, straight. This is what happens when you ignore and insult the press for so many years: they get so frustrated that they lose any sense of measure or respect. And poor Cilia, the "first fighter", the wife of president Maduro, had to pick up her pace to escape.

But this bringing down of Cilia was just the beginning of an iconoclastic binge. In the early morning next day the new chair of the N.A. Ramos Allup brought down all the portraits of Chavez that overwhelmed the decor. For good measure he also had brought down the computer created image of Bolivar out of his 200 year old remains. This necrophiliac endeavor from Chavez had become the new official portrait of Bolivar although there is a an existing portrait which was approved by Bolivar himself.

This carefully orchestrated act of Ramos Allup had the desired effect, an overreaction of chavismo which will cost it dearly. It included a lengthy military show in cadena (forced simultaneous broadcast on ALL networks and radios) to "desagravio"  redress/repair the insult made to Bolivar even though the bulk of the actions was in defense of Chavez who is, apparently, more insulted than Bolivar.

It is hard to imagine that the totalitarian mentality of these people could be exposed so well in such short notice. General Padrino wanted to impress on us that the computer Bolivar was now encrusted deep into the heart of all of us. How could it be otherwise, he implied. And this meant that Bolivar was insulted through insults to Chavez as the favorite "insigne" son of Bolivar (even if he never got 50% of the electorate to vote for him, even with his higher scores in votes cast). That there is no food or medicine after Chavez is not making a dent in these people who keep their idols up.  Hence the brilliant move of Ramos Allup, starting to tear down that mental construct that is blocking any progress for the country.

More details emerged to confirm that need. The mayor of Caracas announced that the whole city will be papered over with copies of the discarded portraits. Funds for that will apparently not be a problem. As to where will he find the paper and ink for that endeavour remains to be explained. Other chavistas suggested that all chavista households should have well displayed Bolivar and Chavez, a new version of the yellow star I suppose for those who do not harbor the "insigne" badge.

Meanwhile Ramos Allup forges ahead and went alone to Quinta Crespo market for his week's groceries, to the great wonderment of el pueblo not used to see chavista nomenklatura shop on their own (even if he had to leave in a hurry after red storm troopers arrived). Whatever criticism people throw at Ramos, and many are from the opposition itslef, we must thank him for breaking a taboo. The idolization of Chavez will never be the same.

The government thread is briefer: they have lost the capacity to set the political agenda and their race is to keep up with what the MUD and R.A. do. I am not going into the expected Greek chorus that want already to nullify the N.A. and jail R.A. I am just going to look at what happened at Miraflores. There Maduro named a new cabinet which kept military in the main positions, and the ones that move the most money. Some cryptic moderates under the guise of people with experience in the private sector were appointed. And to balance it all a social sciences major with nebulous ideas on economy and zero experience is the alleged new star.

But the new cabinet is more interesting through what is missing: some of Cabello heavy weights even though he still has his wife as tourism minister. Some see in that a real weakening of Cabello who, stripped of his power base at the N.A. and the refusal by the army to follow him in a coup on December 6, may be just on his way out. Perhaps even as a token offering to the DEA in a near future? All is possible but I also concur that Cabello's day are counted unless he finds new support that these days could only come from forgiveness of an opposition that he has brutalized for too long. In a way Cabello aura of invincibility is another icon that was brought down this week. After all since December 6 he was threatening and threatening and yet in the end he had to surrender the N.A. seat and could not stop its first measures, ridiculing himself by threatening the N.A. to leave it without funding.

As the first true week of the Assembly looms we may expect more surprises, the more so that it seems resolved in promoting first an amnesty law which could be the final showdown into forcing the regime to compromise,or to surrender. The final release of Leopoldo Lopez in the streets maybe too much for the regime to endure without breaking down. We will see.

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The first day of the New Assembly

This entry started this morning (see bottom for earlier text) but I decided to edit it and keep it up as a regular entry.

I am sorry to limit my comments on what happened inside the Assembly because I went to the support rally. In spite of the low speed of connections I did manage to have a full report, video included, of what that rally was. Considering that it was early January when everyone is on Holiday, considering that the regime close 4, FOUR, subway stations to force people to walk about 2 KM to attend, considering the threats, I think it was a very successful demonstration. Visit my Instagram account for pics and videos, in particular the police barrier at the end of the march, two blocks before the National Assembly. For those new to Instagram you need to click on the picture for full details and comments.  Better get used to it and open your account, it is the future of micro blogging by eye witness.


As for what happened inside. It was a mess, chavismo trying to disrupt and sabotage whatever they could, sending a drunken opening speaker because it was for the oldest elected representative to open the session and proceed tot he election of the chair, Ramos Allup. Expect more of the like.

On noteworthy moments.

Ramos Allup gave a good speech and made it clear that the opposition got the message, that the regime is going to attack the New Assembly and that they will fight back, including a legal, constitutional, electoral, peaceful removal of Maduro from office in the next 6 months.

Cabello withdrew the PSUV group because supposedly Ramor Allup violated rules. As if he NEVER violated any rule himself.

Cilia Flores, wife of Maduro and representative from Cojedes was asked about her narco-nephews in jail in New York. She walked away with a truly dirty look, first time a journalist was close enough her to ask for the question we all wanted to hear.

Things were said that chavismo did not like. They are not used at how democracy works.

Reuters got it right: Venezuelans used to years of monochromatic to ideological TV could not believe it when in cafes suddenly TV was live with opposition politicians speaking.  It is true, when I drove back home I saw crowds spilling out of cafes!!!!

So there it was for a first rowdy day. But that is that, the opposition is now in charge at the Assembly. There is still the question of the illegally annulled 4 seats. But as wee say in French a chaque jour suffit sa peine.

For those who refuse to get into Instagram

Video of barricade

A video posted by daniel duquenal (@duquenal_at_vnv) on Jan 5, 2016 at 8:12am PST

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I will try to go to the rally in support of the New Assembly. If I succeed I will try to post stuff on Instagram and/or twitter. Links on the right side of this page.

Then again maybe not: I just learned that the subway stations around La Hoyada have been shut down for "security" reasons, which means you need to walk a mile to reach la Hoyada.  They will try to screw us until the bitter end!

We are going for it anyway.

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The unexpected transition

The arrests of Rincon and Shiera (and maybe more) in Houston and Miami this week end may be more important than what you may think.

Let's first dispatch the news.


Rincon and Shiera have been investigated for a while by the DEA which does more than just drug stuff. Money laundering of all sorts is also looked upon.  Journalist Cesar Batiz has, in Spanish, a long investigation on the rise from rags to riches of Rincon, through conveniently organized supply companies to Venezuela state oil PDVSA, as of 2003 when all controls on procurement were eliminated. Last year Rincon lavishly married a son in what in French we say defrayer la chronique (goes beyond social gossip?).

Rincon came to political notoriety when a plane from his business was the one transporting "el pollo" Carvajal, a Venezuelan army officier accused in the DEA list of drug trafficking who was briefly detained in Aruba as the US failed to extradite him (due to The Netherlands unwillingness to endure insults from the regime, but that is another story). The first question that comes to mind, is what the hell was Rincon still doing in the US? Speaks a lot of the brazenness of these people that think that outside of Venezuela they can go around equally unscathed.

It is important to mention that people like Rincon have been followed closely by noted bloggers whose own investigations may have been of use by authorities, investigations also linked to the contract abuses and overprices around the Derwick. In addition to Cesar Batiz, already named above, there is Alek Boyd who has been personally threatened by the Derwick people (who else?) and whose web page Infodio is blocked in Venezuela.  Steve Bodzin is another one who has covered the oil scandals of Venezuela and who did extensive searches into how the corrupts like Rincon or Derwick bolichicos pay to have their images cleansed through Internet. And there is also a blog in Spanish who looks into actual criminal activities of these people but without stated ownership.

So, what does it all mean?  On the trials to come I do not know but on Venezuela future politics I have a good idea,

The chavista corruption has been reckless, and the more so that it involved drug trafficking. These people are just a street gang that somehow was catapulted into controlling a country through Chavez who needed people to do his dirty job, no questions asked. Chavez was himself of a thug mentality but crossed with messianic idealism and the inability to understand what classic texts actually meant. Thus he let it all happen as long as it increased his chances to be president for life.

Though years of success in Venezuela and the establishment of a system here where they can do as they please, they have come to assume that outside of Venezuela it works the same: pay what it takes to bribe and do almost as much as you do in Venezuela.

Unfortunately it does not work like that. The US and Europe maybe tolerant on corruption to a point: after all, it is investment money coming in and if the country where it comes from is idiotic enough to allow it, well, too bad for them. However when the levels of corruption start affecting the workings in the US things change and there is a crackdown. Rincon if just another chain link, but that chain goes to the billions that went through the HSBC bank, or the accounts in Andorra and what not.

On December 6 the regime lost elections badly because, among other reasons, they were busier looting the country than taking care of the basic necessities of their very own electorate that was willing to pretend to be fooled as long as a regular flow of freebies came down. Trickle down economics, chavista style. Bankrupting the country with so much looting cut down the trickle......

For a few days we were wondering about how the regime would find ways to void the new assembly and how that one would stare down the regime. But the arrest of Rincon (and more to come) is, in my eyes, speeding up the whole scene rearrangement. The list is now long on people that have been caught: if Rincon was the middle man, there are the nephews of the first lady, or ponzi traders like Illaramendi. We can state without fear that at the very least a couple of dozen of high ranking chavistas are next, and cannot leave the country anymore. And they know it. We can cite for example Diosdado Cabello, Rafael Ramirez, a few army officers, a few ministers and CADIVI bureaucrats, just for starters.

The question is how can you negotiate a power sharing system with people that cannot hold their part of the bargain for many reasons, one of them because they cannot travel outside of the country for fear of not being able to return for the duration of their sentence? Add to that a country on the verge of collapse that cannot hold much longer while corrupts and politicians decide what to do.

This is not about sharing of power anymore. I am not sure if a transition is still an option. We are talking here of an outright change of regime, either a military dictatorship or a direct overthrow of the people in charge who are too corrupt and who in any case have no idea on how to take the country into the quagmire they created.

I am nobody here but I would suggest Maduro to name a new vice president and an opposition cabinet to let them do what must be done while he is himself the garant that key social programs will be untouched. A cohabitation French style, for example. Or at the very least name a more technocratic cabinet, where key financial posts are held by people who know that 2+2=4.  This would give a few months for Disodado and his ilk to figure out some deal with the DEA and the like to avoid the worst of their fate. But we all know that this sensible approach will not happen.

The "transition" has suddenly become very unexpected.

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The hysteria of Diosdado and Tarek

The stupendous defeat of the regime two Sundays ago is just starting to unleash all demons within chavismo.  There are two little items that are worth noting.


Diosdado Cabello, the outgoing chair of the National Assembly has lot of reasons to worry about the incoming Assembly. Not only he will not be enjoying the privileges associated with the position but, lord have mercy on him, he risks to have his microphone cut when he starts insulting other representatives in what he qualifies as normal debate. If that was not enough he will have as a new colleague Rafael Guzman. This Rafael was 7 years ago the guy that studied all the improprieties that Cabello did during his lone tenure as Miranda governor from where he was ignominiously booted by Capriles (and forced to return to his native Monagas).  The very substantial dossier could never receive any legal examination because no tribunal would pick up the thing to avoid offending Cabello or Chavez, but Cabello himself as of 2010 made sure that the National Assembly would not even be aware of the existence of such dossier.

Now, in prime time, Rafael Guzman will be able to broach on the matter, something that should be enough to unseat Cabello from the Assembly and to get him a seat in a jail, independently of what the US does on his likely indictment on drug trafficking.

Tarek El Aissami is the very unhappy governor of Aragua state. Not only he is in the hot list of likely DEA indictments, but his state went from overwhelmingly chavista to a clean sweep by the opposition. Three years of him as a governor were enough to transform Aragua electoral landscape even more than the crisis changed the rest of the country.

This was rendered the more humiliating as one of the chief organizer in Aragua anti Tarek movement was the mayor of a small area, the lone survivor for the opposition loss two years ago, Delson Guarate. Since major players in Aragua had been neutralized (think Richard Mardo, Maracay defenestrated representative) poor Delson had to bear the brunt of Tarek attacks, These included a now famous battle over refusing to give the district of Delson the machines that are needed to pick up the trash so that the district would be the worst of Aragua. Of course, people are not as stupid as Tarek and the PSUV think they are and two Sundays ago they let it know to Tarek that his days in Aragua were nearly over.

But Tarek will have none of it and he instead  went to ask chavismo supporters to mass in front the National Assembly on January 5 to block access to the new representatives.... Certainly, after Cabello, our boy Tarek is in the top tier of people in serious need to be investigated for anything from racketeering to drug traffic. Probably even for setting soccer game results... Nothing would too low to stop the national assembly to take its seats.

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When consoling the troops makes you certifiable political ass

It is always necessary for the leader of a political party to try to comfort a little bit the troops by promises of keeping up the good fight. If this cannot be done by the harshness of the score or the temperament of the leader then there is always resigning your position. What Maduro did tonight was resigning his subordinates and through Cabello announce open season on the new Assembly.


For those who were hoping for a dialogue between thugs and democrats, there you are.

It all started with a TV show where a bitter Maduro let it be known clearly that he felt betrayed by those who did not vote for him. He went, like a brat, to say that his social plans were now in doubt and that he was hurt that after all his gifts during the campaign (apartment, tablets, taxis,...) he did not get the support he deserved. He did not realize of course that he was also admitting to a crime, of buying votes. But I digress.

Then at some point Cabello joined him (I did not watch, I am just summarizing Twitter, the only open media of Venezuela). It was for Cabello to announce the new battle plans against the incoming Assembly.  They include a series of new laws and appointments to be made before normal sessions end on December 15. Yes, the assembly can call a lame duck session and sit as far as January 4 I guess, but already some of the decisions announced would be illegal if they were to be approved in that delay. For example, laws need a certain numbers of discussion sessions. Naming new High Court (TSJ) judges must include a nomination process that requires weeks.

Thus even if the defeated chavista representatives went along, whose motivation remains to be seen as they are less threatened than Cabello by the courts, most of Cabello's legislative program would be illegal and I, for one, doubt that the TSJ would dare to annul an Assembly vote to revoke those lame duck decisions. Were the TSJ do so the new National Assembly would have no other choice but to call for a constituent assembly to remove ALL judges from their job.

Of course all of this bravado is the result of a bitter deception, the more so that in spite of all maneuvering the CNE finally recognized today that the National Assembly will have a 2/3 majority. To add insult to injury, that majority is due to the 3 elected representatives of the indigenous people. When Chavez wrote his 1999 constitution he included a provision that 3 representatives should be included just for indigenous people. That never worked out because if the candidates had to be named by the natives, too many non natives could affect the election. But that was not the point. The point was that in eternal gratitude for what came to be an empty gesture chavismo would have a lock on those three seats. Guess what? The natives are as fed up with scarcity than the invaders.

The bravado nature is confirmed with the latest on ANTV (our dim C-Span). Now Cabello has decided that it would go to its workers and thus the new leadership of the Assembly will not be able to direct its own TV Channel. This is of course idiotic because the new Assembly would now be forced to revoke the CONATEL law to control media and return TVes to its old owners Radio Caracas TV (and I also doubt that no matter how packed the TSJ is it would annul such decisions).

I, for one, think that Maduro and Cabello tonight are digging fast their own hole. Alone.

Note: Maduro asked for the resignation of his cabinet when he is the one who should resign. Some already suggest that it is to remove from office those that are the more compromised by shady finances and to thus delay their eventual exam by New Assembly. The real question though is who will dare to accpet the new jobs at a collapsing presidency.

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The banality of evil, Caracas style

Tonight I twitted this:

Oyendo Nieves me la paso pensando en Hanna Arendt y la banalidad del mal. #ConcluFiscal

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) October 28, 2015

In English: Listening to {prosecutor} Nieves I keep thinking of Hannah Arendt and the banality of evil.

One of the top prosecutors in the Leopoldo Lopez show trial has defected to the US and is now saying that the whole operation against Lopez was a scam, that the intention was to put him away for the election of 2015 and more. In fact Nieves went as far as to say, more or less, that the order to arrest Lopez already existed before the events for which he was finally arrested in February 2014.


Franklin Nieves was tonight in the top CÑNe rating show of Fernando del Rincon. Mr. del Rincon rocketed from a CNNE anchor to his own nightly talk show, Conclusiones, as a consequence of his daring reports on Venezuela through the first half of 2014. He has become the journalist to go for any trouble in Latin America, and the specialist on Venezuela, much loved by the opposition, and much more reviled by the regime.

I am not going into the details of what Nieves said (for those who read Spanish you can visit my Tweeter time line of Tuesday night). In short, he stated that all the evidence against Lopez was fabricated, that he received orders to prosecute anyway on those fake evidences, that all knew about that in the regime, that Diosdado Cabello himself was supervising the first orders and that he fooled the Lopez family in making them believe that if Lopez surrendered nicely a deal would be reached. He accused directly Maduro and Cabello and some of the top officials at the state prosecuting office in such a way that the regime will have to do better than just using the worn out line "he is a liar, paid by the nemesis of the revolution" (which he may well be for all that I know, but that is not the point). There is a situation now that will make supporting the regime almost impossible for some of its allies.

No, my interest is elsewhere. First, let's us start with the one with easiest access: why is the US covering for all those defectors? Is it a strategy to encourage them to defect the regime so as to build a case against its corrupt narco officials? In that case, how come indictments and active prosecutions are not coming through faster? In short, why are the US giving some (minor) credit to some of the accusations the regime hurls at them? I am writing that because informed people know better, know that the regime is indeed a rotten corrupt system, that is not investigated by the US alone. But too many use the people's ignorance and misinformation, even inside the opposition, in such ways that it helps the regime case. I am also writing this so that readers realize that I am not in a blind rage as I type.

There is some confusing evil above, but there is real evil next.

What has struck me more was the composure of Nieves during the whole interview, even as del Rincon was trying not to break down under the shock of having all of his antidemocratic accusations against the regime thus validated.

That made me think of Hanna Arendt, the Eichman trial, the basic nature of totalitarianism the way she explained, creating "the banality of evil".  At least Arendt was writing her seminal books based on people following orders. I suppose that concentration camp guards did not have access to Tweeter to get contrasting news to what the Reich told them everyday.  Even if pathetic, the defenses of "I was just following orders" " I did not know" "Nobody told me anything, nobody knew" could make one doubt on occasion if the lines were pronounced then with an empty enough glance.

But with Nieves such excuses cannot apply. Nieves tonight told us he knew what he was doing all along was wrong, was a crime, was an abuse of Human Rights. He knew all along that the regime wanted Lopez jailed, found guilty while it figured out, I imagine, a final solution to the Lopez problem.

Nieves knew and yet he did. And I do not buy much his crocodile tears at seeing Lopez little girl go to the same school as the prosecutor's orphan maker girl being too much for him and making him decide to defect.

What was shocking tonight is that all the actors were following orders, indeed, but knowing full well that the orders were wrong. In the end it does not really matter whether Cabello is the one that gave the original order, what matters here is that the chavista regime has been a totalitarian regime for quite a while as the behavior of the people at the nation's prosecution office show. This is way beyond debating whether the regime can be described as a dictatorship. This is a neo-totalitarian system as I have long ago coined it as a tag for some of this blog entries.

In the end one is left perplexed in trying to figure which is the worst evil. The ones giving orders? The ones executing it? The ones confessing to them without much trouble? And thus it all becomes banal.

PS: interview now up for those who understand Spanish

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Regime gains? Opposition gains? Lopez gains?

The guilty verdict on Leopoldo Lopez was expected though one would have thought that the maximum penalty would not have been decided. At any rate, guilty or free, the decision yesterday by the regime to tell judge Barreiros to condemn Lopez is not going to change much on the events to come. What it does convincingly is marking the moment where the regime stops gingerly crossing over the line between dictatorship and the totalitarian state. Gingerly no more.

Anything but freeing Lopez would not have improved the international regime standing now at junk bond level. Any condemnation, no matter how short the sentence, was equally unacceptable because a guilty verdict on thought crime is unacceptable in civilized world. Any guilty verdict is the clear statement of the regime that politicians will be dealt with through "crime" sentences to ban them from office. Who needs a gulag when a mere sentence disposes of your opponents for a few years in jail and for a life time once out?

So, why is the regime risking such an international condemnation, even though it does not seem to care about that a bit, as witnesses the Colombian border crisis?


Any gain perceived by the regime is strictly internal, safe the historical apologists from Red Ken to the ineffable Eva Golinger. I suppose that now they will be able to state without batting an eye that Lopez is guilty. And it will work to a point. All outside in Venezuela have a sense that justice in Venezuela is not great. But few can grasp how perverted the system is. Thus when a propagandist at Russia Today like Eva Golinger states that Lopez is guilty and has been condemned to 14 years of jail even if you have a doubt about the Venezuelan judicial system you will think that surely Lopez must have done something even if the sentence is overly harsh. A meager compensation when you consider that the Eva Golingers of the world are now quite discredited outside of the few dark caves where they seek refuge.

The "benefits" must be strictly internal, thus. Which may they be?

As an electoral ploy it can only mobilize better the hard core of chavismo. Yesterday a colectivo did attack a peaceful protest resulting with one death through cardiac failure. But the renewed radicalization of the nut wing of chavismo has the advantage at improving the options of the "bring in the vote" machine.  Plain coercion as before has not worked in 2013, now chavismo needs actual threats and ferrying of timorate electors. At best this may help chavismo limit the hemorrhage of votes but it will not help them gain new electors. Attitudes like yesterday castigating civil protests or chanting the hopes that Lopez gets 400 year sentence do not make you new friends.

As a demobilizing tool for the opposition it has a limited use. At best it will scare some opposition leaders that do not want to go to jail, but the bulk knows quite well that they must keep the fight because the slammer is their destiny sooner or later. I think personally that condemning Lopez is in fact an incentive for the opposition voter to be more active. But the Cuban inspired regime applies old recipes in a new world of Twitter.

As a tool to create violence and thus get an excuse to suspend elections is far from certain. So far there is no evidence that the opposition will resort to violence. Lopez himself is calling for peace and electoral activism as the best and fastest way to get out of jail, and annul the unjust sentence.

Clearly I see no real advantage for the regime in condemning Lopez to 14 years. The international commendation has been quite vocal today, faster than usual. Peace still reigns in Venezuela and I do not see much spontaneous chavista celebration...

The only advantage that I can see is internal to chavismo. Someone had to make a show of force to prove to one faction that he is the boss. I, for one, have a hard time imagining that Cubans demanded this from Maduro, or at least with a much shorter sentence. Doing so must be the way to announce that we have entered totalitarianism, officially. The other suspect is Diosdado Cabello who, besides his resentment against anything educated smart and fancy, may have wanted to condemn Lopez to blame this on Maduro.

Whatever it is, those who participated in that show trial have put their names first in the list of those who will need to suffer through a Venezuelan Nuremberg when the day shall come. I do not want to be seen as a poseur by using the N word, but the crimes committed by the regime this recent weeks qualify the holders to a trial at The Hague. Period.

There is only one winner yesterday: Leopoldo Lopez. Write it down.

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Cabello's adventures, or when the US of A pays its failed foreign policies

WSJ front page narco national assembly chair Diosdado Cabello was on quite a grand tour this past week. Before we run into all sorts of speculations let's look at the pictures and then stick to the bare facts of the situation. You'll find out, I trust, that things may not be as complicated as you may think.

The little friends Diosdado went to visit were the ones from Brazil: ineffable Lula who has helped actively the red corruption spread all over the continent and,

All smiles, presents exchanged, luncheon awaiting in the back.
The HSBC 14 billion man, the Memsalao/Petrobras man and the NarcoCapo man

the woman that replaced him and who barely managed reelection, that is deeply challenged with the Petrobras corruption scandal, but that is also aware that Venezuela is to Brazil a little bit what Greece is to Europe.

Don't we all just look presidential, don't I just hold unto that hand for my dear life!
And can't we all have a faker smile?

Then after a stopover in Caracas where supposedly Diosdado informed a bed ridden Maduro (he missed a trip to the Vatican because, hold tight, he had an ear infection) he surprisingly flew to Haiti from where we got this pictures all smiles out with Thomas Shannon of US Executive Branch and Co., presumably a different branch than Judicial Power and Co.

It seems that the ones in the middle can smile more openly as they may be more clueless? 

Let's look at the facts/obvious-questions now, in no particular order.

How is it possible that a high ranking US officer meets publicly, and friendly, with someone that the justice of his country is investigating on several counts of drug trafficking and assorted racketeering activities? Is it even conceivable that Haiti president could, say, entrap Shannon in Port au Prince to talk to Diosdado Cabello?

Even if we make plenty of room for the amorality of Lula and Dilma, do they need to be seen so close to Cabello at this point?

If in Venezuela there is separation of power, how come Maduro sends as his special emissary the chair of the National Assembly when he has a foreign minister who is supposed to do those things? The seat is not vacant, she was the woman in the picture in Haiti even if we all know she counts for nothing, but I digress.

Obvious questions out of the way, a few facts.

Venezuela owes a lot of money to Brazil. In fact with all that Venezuela owes to Brazil, Colombia and to a lesser degree to other LatAm countries a Venezuelan default could be enough to trigger a financial meltdown of possible dire consequences, not only local. On this Fidel taught Chavez well: indebt yourself so much to them that they will always go to the bargaining table no matter what you do (Greece is doing that by the way, and look for Spain doing that anytime soon as the PSOE is caving much faster than expected to PODEMOS, but I digress again).

For the US, the price of years of neglect on Venezuela is heavy. While George Bush went on to nothing in Iraq he was too happy to have Chavez not only keep up oil supply to the US at war, but also prop up the Caribbean and Central American economies. Now the carpet has been pulled off under the US feet and no matter what the GOP Congress says and no matter how people criticize Obama's Castro opening, the US needs to do something about the whole mess. Because if the US does not find a way to prop up a collapsing Cuba and a Caribbean deprived of oil money support it can see a million or more illegal immigrants any time soon. Very soon.

And there is also the collapse of Venezuela which, due to possible local violence and narco state condition, could send waves of illegal immigration to Colombia and to the US. Amen of destabilizing Colombia.

And speaking of Venezuelan collapse, it is clear that Maduro has no control of the situation. He may have some power but whatever power he has is not enough to do something about the sinking ship. Whomever has some power in Venezuela is the army and this one needs a spokesperson as it is obvious that neither Lula nor Dilma nor the US can speak directly with a green fatigue goon.

Those are some of the reasons that have pushed the US (and Europe) to seat down and talk to Raul and Fidel and now it is time to sit down with someone inside Venezuela and force Brazil to also sit at the table.

To talk about what?

We enter speculation here. However if you see what I wrote above then you surely will agree at least in part with the following: no matter how repulsive Diosdado Cabello is, no matter what evidences are already stacked against him in court, he is the only person that Brazil and the US can talk with. There is no other possible intermediary, country or person. At least as I type this. Brazil, the US and Cabello have three sets of diverging interests but they need to find an agreement somewhere because the three of them could lose a lot.

Cabello can go to jail. As simple as that. But he represents the narco state, at least a large sector of the army, and he can negotiate enough scapegoats for a smooth transition that would include himself being president for a while and maybe some light jail term through a Venezuelan court later on that would allow him to finish his days "honorably". He can always hope anyway. One thing I am sure he knows is that holding to power as a narco thug is going to get him killed not by the US but by other narco thugs he will cross.

Brazil can lose a lot financially. But Lula also risks to lose a lot of the influence he established across Latin America though a Venezuelan collapse. His Foro de Sao Paulo could be revealed for the fraud it always was, his Nobel escape. Dilma is probably more concerned about the cash in a time of trouble for her but the end result is the same for both of them and the Brazilian lenders: you are going to have to accept to lose some if you want to avoid to lose a lot. That negotiation is starting.

For the US it is of course how to avoid a debacle in the Caribbean for which they have only themselves to blame after, oh, 60 years of way more failures than successes in the area. To which you add less than stellar LatAm policies. At least this time around they have found a reluctant partner to share the burden in Brazil even if it means possibly the final loss of South America as a privileged sphere of influence for the US. But in foreign policy you always pay for your mistakes.

A final note. Considering the debacle in Venezuela, food and medicine wise, the only two countries that can supply the big deficits coming to Venezuela are indeed Brazil and the US. I suppose that part of the negotiation is also going to be around that, on how the US and Brazil are going to be willing to help but bypassing the usual Venezuelan corruption route. And of course, one way to do that could to use those that are already rich enough, people like Cabello...

A master class of despicable realpolitik.

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As a an end bonus for those who can manage some Portuguese this blog from Veja in Brasil, the noted magazine unforgiving of political malpractices of Lula and Dilma "O amigo Narco de Lula, um sujeito que se julga acima das leis". (Lula's narco friend, a guy that thinks himself above the law)

Beard and Hair (bad pun). Only the one of the Moustache was missing,
but he was repressing opposition in Venezuela

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The Venezuelan Narco State is getting an international definition

The Wall Street Journal published yesterday the first comprehensive account on the multiple investigations in the USA on Venezuela's drug traffic links, and possible long term consequences of those. In Spanish here for free for those who do not have subscription in English. Short English Reuters note here. (1)

National Assembly President,
soon on the "most wanted list"?

Of course there is nothing new here for those who have been following closely Venezuela here. Already ABC in Spain has run into trouble for accusing Diosdado Cabello to be the head of the main drug cartel of Venezuela. What is noteworthy in the WSJ work of Cordoba and Forero is the compilation nature of the thing, of not unnecessarily stressing the role of Cabello. The implications are frightening: the tentacles of drug trafficking that Chavez allowed go much, much deeper than what anyone may suspect, even today.

Because let us all be clear about one thing: this has happened because Hugo Chavez, the hero of the left, has allowed for it to happen, has encouraged it to happen. Diosdado did not come out of thin air. That maybe he became too strong for Chavez to control is another story, but Diosdado Cabello is a Chavez creation, just one of the cogs in the drug machinery that Chavez set up to help the FARC against Uribe. And the cogs are many, including noteworthy high ranking pieces like current Aragua state governor.

But what is the most worrisome line in the whole piece is the quotation from someone who knows Cabello from afar. Julio Rodriguez, a retired Colonel who was Cabello classmate or something, qualifies him as a "kamikaze", "someone who will never surrender".  In other words, Diosdado Cabello will take down with him as many as he needs to take down. He will take the country down with him if he needs to.

Thus, even if the primary elections results of yesterday were a very positive sign for the opposition, even if chavismo sent out its loud mouth pieces to vilely trash them the best they could, that is not the issue. The issue is the nature of the beast true civilians in Venezuela are facing.

At least we can take some solace in the comfort that after ABC in Spain, the WSJ piece of yesterday (front page today) will not allow for international public opinion to look the other way anymore. Diosdado Cabello may be able to close the last information outlets in Venezuela but that will only confirm what these newspapers have been writing and making public. Venezuela IS the NEWEST NARCO STATE and as such Venezuela is now a major problem for the west, just as northern Mexico is, just as Colombia was. Just keep in mind what the drug war of Northern Mexico is costing, what Uribe and the US had to spend to control Colombia and you will know what will have to be done about Venezuela if international pressure does not grow faster. In particular from the rest of Latin America which are going to be the first victims, by the way. But possibly drug traffic money is also reaching there deeper than what we may already suspect.

PS: the strangle hold on remaining "free" Venezuelan media can be seen on Google news which has become nearly useless. With all the state media supplemented with allied stuff like Cuba's Prensa Latina, the Google page on Venezuela is crowded with favorable news for the regime and one needs to scratch hard to find more critical coverage unless foreign newspapers make headlines out of Venezuelan news.  Well, today it is such a day where regime sponsored media cannot overcome bad press as seen out of this screen shot at 1 PM Europe time.

In spite of all regime set ups, the investigations on Diosdado is number one main news leaving in second propaganda "news" on food distribution (100,000 tons, yeah , right) and how young couples benefit from new housing (yeah, right, as long as they have the right red connections).

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1) Is it necessary to remind readers that investigations on crime in the US are independent from the executive branch as there is separation of powers and that the intervention of this last one is reserved strictly on actions that may be taken according to national interests?

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The renovated Tascon list

I know, I know...  It has been over a week I have not written, all sorts of things happening.  But I have other preoccupations and, at any rate, the dice have been thrown, we are waiting to see where will they roll to. Besides, in case you forgot, a blog is not a source of news but an informed source of opinion, at best.

I could tell you about my ordeal to find medication for 4 different treatments I am supposed to take. I had to look for them in about a dozen pharmacies in Caracas and about half a dozen in San Felipe. In the end I could sort of put together with substitutes and incompletes three of them, Fortunately none was vital, one was preventive and one "just in case" otherwise I probably would not be typing today.

I could tell you that toilet paper, powder milk, coffee, laundry detergent, soap, shampoo seem to have disappeared for good. Corn flour, despite its recent price increase, is still nowhere to be found. But we do have tooth paste and mouth wash aplenty, something that was missing badly last year. I have stocked just in case.

Thus it is more relaxing to discuss the latest adventures of Obama's executive order and Maduro/Cabello hysteria. As you may recall Obama signed about a moth ago an executive order that bans 7 (SEVEN) Venezuelans from entry in the US, from having checking accounts in the US, from having property in the US, from having business deal with US citizens. They can go and do such things ANYWHERE else in the world but not in the US.

PERIOD.

Well, this sent the regime in a frothing in the mouth frenzy. First, they decided that this decree was about Venezuela, not 7 corrupt officials with crimes ranging from drug trafficking to human rights abuse. Of course NO SINGLE investigation was started inside Venezuela to prove the US wrong. But who is counting? They moved swiftly to bring to the dark side as many international players as possible. In Latin America this was not too difficult as chavista money has corrupted so many already that they better support any criminal in Venezuela least they are placed in the list next. By the said criminal probably. Blackmail has its advantages and when you can do it to others because you owe them so much money it is even funnier.

But this was not the worst, by far. The worst was the campaign started all across the country to have people sign a "petition" to have Obama withdraw the executive order. You may ask: what is wrong with that? Well, not only school children in public schools were drafted (and their parents along), but they even went to jails to gather signatures from inmates. The pressure on public servants was, well, you can imagine. Even Maduro went door to door (in San Felipe the fascist governor sent plenty to collect door to door).

Now, I am asking you, Maduro or a red shirted group shows up at your door and asks you to sign. What would you do if you disagree but lived in Podunck Venezuela while a Nazional Guard or militia accompanies the party that goes door to door?

Right.....

The amazing thing is that Maduro, Cabello et al. probably think that the world will not take notice on how these signatures have been taken. There are embassies, you know. But in the end the regime could not care less because this going to be another huge political tool for them: the renewal of the Tascon List. Those that will not appear in the data base currently elaborated out of these sheets (even the phone number was requested) will be a new Tascon List of sorts and will be used to actively discriminate against them in the future, as traitors preferably. The regime claims already 4.5 million signatures, This is enough to insure a chavista base easily blackmailed in the future to control both sides of the populace as need arises. They want 10 millions. Who knows, they may come to my office and I may sign. Twice if necessary. Who cares? What credibility in that process? I promise to take a picture if the day comes.

At least there is a silver lining: many inside the opposition will have their political career seriously dented for having supported the regime on that without having dared to demand at least an investigation. In particular the various flip.flops of Lara governor Heni Falcon will have a big cost. Good riddance.

So there you are, any excuse to advance the totalitarian state. Even Twitter is now threatened...

But what else can Cabello and Maduro do? If they are ousted from power they go to jail. All criminals know that when their weapons are taken away what is left is jail. So we can expect them to forge ahead with more crimes and abuses.

PS: more than ever I support the Obama executive order because it has revealed how rotten is Venezuela as a whole. Even if that was not necessarily the original intent.

And Pooh-Pooh on all who think that "the timing was bad" "the opposition will be hurt" "it helps Maduro in Latin America" and assorted idiocies.

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