BeritaSeo: corruption

Karadzic para luminarias chavistas

Hoy nos enteramos que el serbiobosnio Radovan Karadzic ha sido sentenciado en la corte internacional de La Haya por crímenes de lesa humanidad y genocidio en las matanzas de Srebenica. La justicia tardo 20 años en llegar para los musulmanes de Bosnia, pero llegó. Amen que la sentencia coincide con una era de injustificada ira contra los musulmanes decentes por parte de gente como Trump y Cruz, o los políticos populistas de extrema derecha en Europa. Es justicia para los musulmanes de Bosnia que eran en esa época, posiblemente, los mas civilizados, los mas a tono con los valores de democracia hasta que un nacionalismo de corte fascista se empecino en destruirlos. Los crimines de Karadzic contribuyeron en algo al extremismo actual del islam radicalizado.


Pero más allá de la condena de Karadzic, sin querer hacer paralelos ridículos con la situación en Venezuela, buena es la ocasión para que algunos personeros del chavismo entiendan que crimines contra la humanidad no prescriben y que en algún momento la justicia llegará. No se puede robar tanto, arruinar tanto a un país, abusar tanto de su gente sin que en algún momento hable la justicia. Y si la justicia de Venezuela no habla, la de La Haya lo hará en su debido tiempo.

Todavía está a tiempo la jerarquía chavista de tomar los correctivos que sean necesarios para evitar que la justicia los condene a cadena perpetua como pasó hoy con Karadzic. Me conformo con listar abajo crimines potenciales o ya comprobados de algunos chavistas que deberían permitir entender la situación en la cual están, desde ya.

No voy a hablar de los narco traficantes de peso, casi todos militares, porque el volumen de tráfico de drogas por Venezuela solo fue posible por la aquiescencia del estamento militar. Para ellos ya hay cortes actuando. Pregúntenle a Carvajal que ya no podrá más nunca salir de Venezuela. Pregunten a los de la lista de Obama quienes según la miserable propaganda del régimen serian patriotas corderitos de dios, sin que nadie nos explique con veracidad como es que un vuelo de Air France cargo con centenares de kilos de cocaína, algo imposible sin fallas gravísimas de la seguridad de Maiquetia en manos de los militares.

Tampoco voy a hablar mucho de corrupción y de lavado de dinero. De eso también hay cortes pendientes. Preguntarle a Rincón en Houston a quien le fue negada la fianza porque se podía dar el lujo de perder los millones que tiene en EE.UU. ya que tiene aún más millones fuera de los EE.UU. Preguntarle al que está ya sentenciado por desfalcar a PDVSA por los ahorros de sus empleados. Y así muchos mas en la mira.

Los que vienen al caso son los que serán condenados por permitir, crear, impulsar una situación política que nos está conduciendo hacia una represión masiva, o a una guerra civil.

Por ejemplo tomemos a los jueces alcahuetas y corruptos del TSJ. Empecemos, hay que empezar en algún sitio, por Luisa Estela Morales, culpable de tantas violaciones constitucionales que permitieron establecer la actual dictadura. ¿No sabia ella lo que estaba haciendo? Recordemos que esa mujer tuvo la desfachatez de decir que la separación de poderes era un mal asunto. Sumemos los jueces ya huidos a EE.UU (¿dónde más?) y que han revelado diáfanamente la corrupción moral de la justicia en Venezuela. Agreguemos a jueces ya con prontuario policial y que apenas designados ya presiden la sala de casación penal, en un claro signo que la justicia será lo que decida el régimen, jueces que ya no tienen nada que perder y que por lo tanto se prestarán a firmar la sentencia que sea para permitir al régimen durar un día más. ¿Justicia y derechos?

Prosigamos por los aupadores de oficio, los que tienen una carrera política dedicada a crear divisiones, a amenazar a quien no comulgue con el régimen. Muchos hay allí pero tomemos dos en particular. Uno es un psiquiatra ya reconocido como psicópata y alcalde de Caracas. Otro que además de estar señalado en corrupción y narcotráfico también es el responsable de organizar agresión a diputados en el propio recinto de la Asamblea Nacional, llamar a la violencia y tener un programa televisivo done agrede verbalmente, difama, ataca y amenaza con toda impunidad. Gente como Rodríguez y Cabello ya tienen su puesto asegurado en la lista de los que tendrán que rendir cuenta más temprano que tarde.

Hablemos de los que por su empeño en ocultar su mala gestión están condenando el país a una posible hambruna, a un posible colapso epidemiológico. Si bien mala gestión se detecta hasta en los países mas desarrollados, lo que denota en Venezuela es la saña que agregan esos personeros a sus actuaciones. Tengo en mente ministros de Sanidad o alimentación.

Hablar de la violación de los derechos humanos seria ya tarea demasiado larga para esta entrada. Con solo mencionar la Lista de Tascón y la represión del 2014 ya tenemos con que enjuiciar a varios civiles y militares.

Hablando de militares el caso de Vladimir Padrino es interesante. Todavía no se puede decir si sus actos justificarían denunciarlo en La Haya. Pero de lo que si estamos seguro es que de apoyar la represión solicitada por el régimen el podría encabezar la lista con sobrados méritos. Otro veredicto de culpabilidad pocos días antes de el de Karadzic fue en contra del jefe militar congoles Bemba. Es notable que en este caso Bemba fue condenado a pesar de que el no estuvo presente en el lugar de los hechos. Solamente por mandar tropas a la República Centroafricana y desentenderse del potencial de violencia fue suficiente para condenarlo. Es notable también que Bemba fue arrestado cuando ya estaba en el exilio, demostrando que ganando o perdiendo el juego politico no ofrece protección alguna contra delitos que no prescriben. Así como Padrino hay muchos jerarcas del ejercito que deberían pensarlo un poco mas antes de seguir ordenes indebidas, que posiblemente ni siquiera vienen de nuestro pais.

Acortemos esta lista mencionando al que dirige al circo aunque no sea su dueño. Al rechazar la ayuda de la OMS frente a la crisis de salud de Venezuela el presidente Maduro ya se pone a pie de cruzar la línea entre la incompetencia criminal y el genocidio. Y no es lo único que ameritaría un juicio en contra de él que sin duda alguna resultaría en una sentencia de muchísimos años en alguna cárcel del mundo.

Sugiero que los que pueden hacer todavía algo para detener la marcha a la catástrofe, lo hagan. No tienen por qué pagar las culpas de estos irresponsables hundiendo al país tratando de salvar su vil pellejo. Los únicos que pueden hacer eso son la porción del PSUV que no quiere terminar de hundirse en la infamia para salvar a los que cometieron crimines que esos chavistas no tienen por qué pagar. Incluyamos los pocos militares que robaron poco y no se metieron en narcotráfico y que no desean mancharse de la sangre de la represión que se les va a pedir, sangre que no se puede lavar nunca de las manos. No nos olvidemos de los funcionarios públicos que todavía pueden renunciar estrepitosamente y hablar aunque sea desde el otro lado de la frontera. Todavía está en esos grupos la posibilidad de hacer algo para no entrar en las listas que se mandarán algún día hasta La Haya. Esperemos que traten de evitar un viaje a La Haya, aunque sea solo como testigos vergonzosos de la infamia.

Chiming on Brazil [file under "famous last words" section]

This one is short.


Anti Corruption justice is circling closer and closer to Brazil's ex president Lula and his designed and failed heir, Dilma Roussef. This one, to protect her mentor, has just named him minister. Such position in Brazil, unaccountably for, gives the holder some form of immunity and while s/he holds the office as s/he can only be investigated and prosecuted through the high court of the land.

This maneuver is of course and admission of guilt. Lula should face judicial proceedings like any citizen now that he is "retired" from politics. If he is innocent, the alleged "persecution" would make of him a martyr and push him back to office as if nothing. The hysterical part of it is that Lula is on record for having say that in Brazil when the poor steal they go to jail but when the rich steal they become ministers. In 1988. In 2016 he becomes minister.




You live by the sword, you die by the sword.

Goes to show you that the left in LatAm has turned out to be even more corrupt than the right. We know now why Lula was the great enabler of Chavez.

Argentina and Uruguay to investigate business with Venezuela

Long time faithful reader Milonga from Uruguay has finally accepted to send me a note about what is going on down South with all these elections going on. There is her great article. Enjoy and thank her. Note: we had the pleasure to read her in the past.
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They say all roads take you to Rome. Well, here in Latin America, all roads lead you to Chavez.

When Mauricio Macri was elected, Argentineans started to find out some of the comings and goings of the Kirchner government. For example, take this poultry farm called Red Crest (Cresta Roja), which just went bankrupt and fired 300 workers. It exported to Venezuela and received a 650 dollar subsidy for each ton exported. Also, they were paid by the government for selling their produce underpriced to the local market. And gave them billionaire credits which they can´t pay back to the Bicentenary Bank, due to the fact that Venezuela is not paying its debts. So, in spite of all these benefits, it went broke. Money loaned went to pay for the K political campaign, not to cover up for Venezuelan lack of payment. They did not count on losing the election.

This is just one example. There are many others. And the new Government has vowed to look into them, including Antonini Wilson´s dollar-packed suitcase.

On the other side of the River Plate, a Parliamentary Investigation in Uruguay dealing with the state-owned petrol monopoly – ANCAP, has also lighted red lights in the opposition, as well as public opinion. The company has a deficit of more than one billion dollars and most of them are directly or indirectly connected to business with Venezuela. That´s a lot of money for a small country like Uruguay, with a 3 million population.

In the meantime, the opposition has also found out that the main spokesperson with Venezuela is Daniel Placeres, newly elected to the House of Representatives by the Popular Participation Movement (MPP, for its initials in Spanish), Mujica´s party. Not only that, he actually lives in Mujica´s ranch. During the past three years, Placeres admits visiting Caracas for 85 times. Of course he denies influence peddling, but that is hard to believe. He´s just a cover-up for Mujica himself. A percentage of all trade between Uruguay and Venezuela goes to the MPP chests. During these trips he was received personally by Maduro at his Miraflores offices. This is not a normal procedure for ordinary businessmen doing trade.  So you’ll be hearing about Aire Fresco S.A. (Fresh Air) in the nearby future. That’s the name of the trade company that was created for business with Venezuela.

The National opposition party is in an “investigative vigil”. Relationship with Venezuela has been a constant worry for the Party, both politically and commercially. After this summer truce, one expects next year to be complicated. Circumstances avail that.

This audio in Spanish explains some of the matters that are being considered. An article in the Panam Post in English will give you a further insight into this problem.

Godfather

Just before the Parliamentary elections in Venezuela, General Padrino came To Montevideo for an official Mercosur meeting of Defense ministers. He took a day off to spend some hours with Mujica at his now famous ranch.

Since the meaning of “padrino” in Spanish is Godfather, I associate that figure as Pepe Mujica´s role in Bolivarian world. One presumes that their talk was to build post-electoral strategies, since the tweet that came up from that meeting is till echoing:


Meaning: “In Venezuela there´s an excess of democracy and the Revolution must go on with perseverance and discipline”.

Such hypocrisy and double standards! We all know these characters cannot afford to open the Pandora´s box that would disclose their corruption. It would be the fall of the Berlin wall all over again.

Milonga
Montevideo, 15th January, 2016.

Weimar or Harare?

Or was that a suicidal note from the regime?

I wrote earlier about the recent "economic policies" of the regime. But I need to add the latest from today, the de facto privatization of the Central Bank of Venezuela, BCV, to Nicolas Maduro and his camarilla.


In what is a gross constitutional violation Maduro modified through law decree the rules over the BCV. His enabling law did not allow him to do so, and the constitution either. Period.

Which are the modifications?

First, the National Assembly, NA, cannot name representatives to the BCV board of directors, they are now named all by the executive branch. That is right, the executive decides on its own on monetary and fiscal policies. No outside input or supervision needed.

Second, the new BCV is under no obligation to make its statistics public, that is, it will send them to the NA if the executive power allows for it. And apparently even then the NA cannot comment on them. One wonders how can the NA legislate if the most important statistics of the country remain hidden from view.

Third, the BCV can now lend to the regime whatever money it needs, and the conditions of such lending may remain confidential if the regime justifies of any crisis. That is, the banknote printing machine depends on whatever petty cash Maduro needs at any given day.

I need not insult the intelligence of the reader that if such a measure is not immediately overturned by the new NA we are going straight ahead into the wall of hyperinflation. Our currency is as of today is, well, worthless (today 847 to 1 USD, I bet you 1,500 by early February). Hello Weimar! Greetings Harare! We may just beat your records!

This suicidal action of the regime, because when hyperinflation comes in I have no idea how they will stop the people from Catia and 23 de Enero to come and burn down Miraflores Palace, has three clear intentions.

One is to avoid asking the new NA for budgets and their extension. Electoral needs will be covered directly through borrowing at the BCV, for example.

The second intention is to delay as much as possible the publication of the catastrophic economic news of 2015 which may well speed up the downfall of the regime.

The third intention, last but not least, principal in my eyes, is to hide the corruption, looting and mismanagement of the country under Maduro. When the numbers come in, when the NA is able to open hearings on some ministers like Rodriguez Torres, Osorio or the BCV director Merentes, these people will be unable to hide their responsibilities and penal measures will have to be required on the spot. Or these people will have to do a coup which would be hard to succeed considering the reasons why they will ask el pueblo for support. Henceforth the neutralization and privatization of the BCV.

I should add a fourth ancillary reason. Funding for Cuba will be very difficult through the NA. There will be a need to hide the looting that needs to maintain alive the Castro criminals. Blocking access to the BCV not only hides what was already given to Cuba but will allow for a year or two more of partial financing of Cuba. Then again since the country is all but bankrupt I wonder how much money can Cuba get anyway.

This, for me, is the worst possible thing the regime could do to itself. It is simply unthinkable and betrays the desperation of the regime and its willingness to disregard any rule, any constitutional obligation. But it also may show that the army is abandoning it. If they need to resort to packing courts and hiding the money it is because they cannot do a coup. Or so I hope for the sake of all of us.



The unexpected transition

The arrests of Rincon and Shiera (and maybe more) in Houston and Miami this week end may be more important than what you may think.

Let's first dispatch the news.


Rincon and Shiera have been investigated for a while by the DEA which does more than just drug stuff. Money laundering of all sorts is also looked upon.  Journalist Cesar Batiz has, in Spanish, a long investigation on the rise from rags to riches of Rincon, through conveniently organized supply companies to Venezuela state oil PDVSA, as of 2003 when all controls on procurement were eliminated. Last year Rincon lavishly married a son in what in French we say defrayer la chronique (goes beyond social gossip?).

Rincon came to political notoriety when a plane from his business was the one transporting "el pollo" Carvajal, a Venezuelan army officier accused in the DEA list of drug trafficking who was briefly detained in Aruba as the US failed to extradite him (due to The Netherlands unwillingness to endure insults from the regime, but that is another story). The first question that comes to mind, is what the hell was Rincon still doing in the US? Speaks a lot of the brazenness of these people that think that outside of Venezuela they can go around equally unscathed.

It is important to mention that people like Rincon have been followed closely by noted bloggers whose own investigations may have been of use by authorities, investigations also linked to the contract abuses and overprices around the Derwick. In addition to Cesar Batiz, already named above, there is Alek Boyd who has been personally threatened by the Derwick people (who else?) and whose web page Infodio is blocked in Venezuela.  Steve Bodzin is another one who has covered the oil scandals of Venezuela and who did extensive searches into how the corrupts like Rincon or Derwick bolichicos pay to have their images cleansed through Internet. And there is also a blog in Spanish who looks into actual criminal activities of these people but without stated ownership.

So, what does it all mean?  On the trials to come I do not know but on Venezuela future politics I have a good idea,

The chavista corruption has been reckless, and the more so that it involved drug trafficking. These people are just a street gang that somehow was catapulted into controlling a country through Chavez who needed people to do his dirty job, no questions asked. Chavez was himself of a thug mentality but crossed with messianic idealism and the inability to understand what classic texts actually meant. Thus he let it all happen as long as it increased his chances to be president for life.

Though years of success in Venezuela and the establishment of a system here where they can do as they please, they have come to assume that outside of Venezuela it works the same: pay what it takes to bribe and do almost as much as you do in Venezuela.

Unfortunately it does not work like that. The US and Europe maybe tolerant on corruption to a point: after all, it is investment money coming in and if the country where it comes from is idiotic enough to allow it, well, too bad for them. However when the levels of corruption start affecting the workings in the US things change and there is a crackdown. Rincon if just another chain link, but that chain goes to the billions that went through the HSBC bank, or the accounts in Andorra and what not.

On December 6 the regime lost elections badly because, among other reasons, they were busier looting the country than taking care of the basic necessities of their very own electorate that was willing to pretend to be fooled as long as a regular flow of freebies came down. Trickle down economics, chavista style. Bankrupting the country with so much looting cut down the trickle......

For a few days we were wondering about how the regime would find ways to void the new assembly and how that one would stare down the regime. But the arrest of Rincon (and more to come) is, in my eyes, speeding up the whole scene rearrangement. The list is now long on people that have been caught: if Rincon was the middle man, there are the nephews of the first lady, or ponzi traders like Illaramendi. We can state without fear that at the very least a couple of dozen of high ranking chavistas are next, and cannot leave the country anymore. And they know it. We can cite for example Diosdado Cabello, Rafael Ramirez, a few army officers, a few ministers and CADIVI bureaucrats, just for starters.

The question is how can you negotiate a power sharing system with people that cannot hold their part of the bargain for many reasons, one of them because they cannot travel outside of the country for fear of not being able to return for the duration of their sentence? Add to that a country on the verge of collapse that cannot hold much longer while corrupts and politicians decide what to do.

This is not about sharing of power anymore. I am not sure if a transition is still an option. We are talking here of an outright change of regime, either a military dictatorship or a direct overthrow of the people in charge who are too corrupt and who in any case have no idea on how to take the country into the quagmire they created.

I am nobody here but I would suggest Maduro to name a new vice president and an opposition cabinet to let them do what must be done while he is himself the garant that key social programs will be untouched. A cohabitation French style, for example. Or at the very least name a more technocratic cabinet, where key financial posts are held by people who know that 2+2=4.  This would give a few months for Disodado and his ilk to figure out some deal with the DEA and the like to avoid the worst of their fate. But we all know that this sensible approach will not happen.

The "transition" has suddenly become very unexpected.


Electoral scoundrels

No, this is not a post about the constant pro Chavez partisanship of the electoral board CNE. No, this is not a post about the government abuses on the campaign trail. No, this is not about the impossibility of the opposition to voice its political offer on any nation wide network.

This is a post about the scoundrels that flourish under a neo-totalitarian regime like the one Venezuela called for and now suffers from.

Electoral campaigns can be a way to bring the best in people but in general it tends to bring the worst. I am going to detail two recent stories.

William Ojeda

The first one is for the turncoat supreme, William Ojeda. This lackluster character/journalist came to his 15 minutes of fame when he published about 20 years a go a book titled "How much is a judge", pretending to illustrate how corrupt was the judicial system before Chavez. That the judicial system has become infinitely worse since is not the point here, the point is that actually some of the tenets of his "investigation book" have been questioned since. That should have given pause to a few wishing to associate with him.

Whatever. At first Ojeda was with Chavez. When he did not get what he wanted, namely Caracas East mayor job (Petare) he went opposition to the point of entering fist fights with pro Chavez folks. He was eventually compensated by getting the nod in 2010 to be Petare's representative.  So far so good. Except that for reasons that are not explained directly to this date he went back to chavismo within two years. This betrayal to the electors that voted him in has been a constant source of problems and resentments, the more so when Ojeda not only started voting some of the most unpalatable and anti democratic recent laws, but tried to lure through bribes inside chavismo more opposition figures. (1)

Needless to say that the opposition was not going to renew its name on its list. What is more curious is that the regime delayed until it finally gave him the nod. See, after extensive gerrymandering the regime has been able to take away 2 out of the 5 seats that the opposition has been winning in the greater Caracas. Ojeda previously elected in a two seat constituency is now running in a pared down district that albeit still including juicy portions of popular classes neighborhoods is considered as lost by the regime.  Which certainly explains why the regime eventually relented and allowed Ojeda to run for "reelection".

The observant reader would say: so what? The so what is that that Ojeda is already on campaign even though this is not allowed. His district is now covered with huge posters like the one above I am forced to gaze at several times a week when stuck in traffic. All of them say that "Sucre deserves better" or "Sucre does not deserve this." Sucre is the official name of the district that includes the core of Petare's favellas and the tonier districts of North Eastern Caracas, Macaracuay, the Californias and El Llanito. So what, again?

The problem, for one, is that Ojeda is not running for mayor so blaming current holder Ocariz, who is doing a rather good job considering all the sabotage he has had to endure, is not only unfair but out reality. The second, and worse objection, is that Ojeda has been representing the district for 5 years and yet he has partaken in the effective sabotaging of Ocariz's rule even if that affected directly its constituency. That is, not only he betrayed his electors, but then he went on to screw them.

Voters are not fooled and his nomination has faced significant criticism inside chavismo as can be read from its Aporrea portal directly. In fact, you can find elsewhere in Aporrea more complete criticism of Ojeda than I could hope to write up myself! Even in popular districts of Petare Ojeda is not only disliked but he is booed when he tries to pretend that he works for the community. There is a certain Shakespearean quality to Ojeda's plight except that I doubt an ethically corrupt mentality like his can notice. (2)

Jacqueline Faria

The second case is shorter to deal with. We are talking of Jacqueline Faria who is one of the biggest frauds of chavismo. Her main non-achievement was to clean up the sewer that runs through Caracas so that Chavez could go for a swim together with Evo Morales. Today when we cross any bridge over the open air sewer once known as Guaire river we can see that the millions assigned to her for that purpose have gone anywhere but. The problem with Faria is that she pretends to be for el pueblo when she is in reality a snob, rumored to even go from official position to official position with her personal cook in tow. I do not know how true that thing may be but we all know about her comfortable life as a highly inefficient bureaucrat who would never think of sending her child to a public school or public hospital. Milagros Socorro wrote a few days ago an excellent review of the main lies that Faria blurted out without any hint of shame or even self awareness.

Finally all caught up with her when she said that the long lines were "sabrosas" and that it was what Maduro ordered so we should just pick our shopping bag and go along with it.  I kid you not, video below. To understand well in full what a mockery Faria did of all the chavista crowds standing for hours in line, under sun and rain, you should understand that sabrosa in this context is a concept word not directly translatable in English. Sabrosa means here highly enjoyable, very funny, to be sought for, to be done without any remorse. Needless to say that chavismo is not amused by Faria as can be read in Aporera, also. Oh, I forgot, Faria is also running for representative in an area where standing in line for hours has become a full time occupation for some, amen of being an area where buhoneros and bachaqueros hit particularly hard the locals with very high black market resale prices.





Ojeda and Faria mock equally the long suffering electorate, in different ways for sure, but cruel mockery it is.

So there you are, now you know, how chavismo has filed scoundrels to run for office since, well, no one decent would run on that record...........

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1) Ojeda barely used Twitter account as an opposition representative still exists. He cannot even get around to delete that previous account!  I have saved a screen shot in case.

2) There is also another issue about the plastering of billboards in Caracas by Ojeda: who is paying for that? PSUV is not "directly" involved. It is never mentioned in any poster, nor the color red appears. In fact Ojeda uses blue mostly. The excuse is that a minor opposition party, MIN, has been hijacked through a judicial fiat. MIN color is blue and the new board, judicially appointed, seems clearly bent on sabotaging the MUD opposition unity (from which it was promptly suspended). MIN has named Ojeda as its candidate though no one knows how it is possible that suddenly MIN can pay for one of those billboards, never mind the dozens that sprung.

2015: the lost year

It has been three weeks without posting. But in all truth what should have I written about?


That the regime has decided to become outright cruel, be it Leopoldo Lopez jail or the Colombian border disgraceful human rights abuses?

That new electoral cheating is performed?

That now criminal gangs are using grenades against police quarters, when grenades are supposedly exclusive property of the military?

That even Putin tries to explain to Maduro that the price of oil ain't going back up any time soon?

That Obama and the Pope and the West are only too happy to let Venezuela sink as long as it keeps financing a Cuban transition and an assortment of ungrateful shitty islands of the Caribbean?

That the Syrian refugee crisis is to be blamed squarely on the West for not assuming its full responsibility when it started applauding the Arab spring?

That Santos seem to have been defeated by the FARC and Cuba and chavismo when the battle was nearly won when he assumed power first, a victory where his participation was stellar?

You already get the hint that 2015 will be a lost year for a lot of people even though we are only on October 4.

That realization came to me a couple of days ago, that the regime had stolen from me 2015, that it has not allowed me to even try to achieve any modest goal. The year has been a constant reaction to try to deal with negative events in increasingly desperate situations.

I have been looking back and there is no joy, nothing positive for me.

The year has been spent in lines trying to find food and toiletries items and medicines, not even for me, but for my cancer stricken life partner (and other people when I can help). See, he cannot stand in lines for the hours required to acquire food. He cannot go to half a dozen of pharmacies in a row to try to find one that has the pain killer or the anti inflammatory, or the anti-whatever the doctors prescribe. Even nutritional supplements are hard to find and too expensive for his budget. That and other stuff I have had to start paying for, never minding that I have had to go to the black market prices because I also need to work and I cannot spend 2-3 days a week looking for stuff.

As if this ordeal was not bad enough, it has made me face to incredible cruelty of the regime, its immense stupidity to boot. See, those long lines under the sun are equal for all, a true socialist victory. Pregnant women, sick people, elderly with mobility problem, etc...  all have to stand in that same line, no consideration whatsoever for any one, starting with the people in the line that have lost any decency in their search for basic items. Eat shit and die is the message.

But there is insult to injury, true injury from what you can get above. I have seen or heard from reliable witnesses how the Nazional Guards or other forms of "authority" help themselves first, or let go ahead of the line their friends or take payment to allow you to do so. The abuse of power is more obvious, more cruel when such situations arise.

And more insult to the intelligence as the system is a mess of confusion and inefficacy.  Some items are by ID card end number, some items are "once a week", more and more stores demand finger prints from BOTH your thumbs, even if you buy, say, a bag of chips. That finger printing is ominous because it seems to be working better than anticipated even though lines to pay are twice as long as the process to pay is twice as long. The implications is clear: at any time through these machines the regime can restrict access to whatever it wants to restrict. And to whomever. Food apartheid in the making.

You may think that perhaps I can find solace elsewhere, like at work. But the situation is getting worse by the day. I have already detailed on occasion how difficult it is to manufacture things in Venezuela, to produce anything. The two main causes are the lack of raw material and the labor laws that not only make it hard to organize efficiency at work but are now creating havoc as you cannot fire the constantly missing workers that have to leave work to stand in food lines. Not that you would fire them anyway as you understand the situation but the "food shortage absenteeism" has become a source of new abuses.

There is also insult to injury. As your business is having a hard time to survive, you observe newcomers that seem to be quite prosperous. For example the Polar group is closing its detergent and soap plants due to lack of raw material. But there is a newcomer, "Clic", that is flooding supermarkets with pricey house cleaning items.  They even run expensive TV ads! How do they manage to get the raw materials to assemble their concoctions? Why are they the only brand with such a complete and well packaged line of products? Because the packaging of other products trying to replace Polar products is dismal, for low quality products to begin with.

And yet that is not all. There is a new plague on business. Once upon a time corruption was expensive but some forms were preserved. For example to get money out of you they would use catch phrases like "the dockets are loaded, but maybe we could find ways to speed up processing your application to X". Now they ask you money upfront, without any shame. Usually assorted with threats that are not based on anything legal, just because they can threaten you as there is nowhere you can go for redress. The reason for this new bluntness that we have observed in recent months is very simple: bureaucrats know that their fate is sealed no matter what happens with December elections. See, even if chavismo were to win, there is not enough money to spread around anymore and many of them will be shown the door if they are on the wrong side of post December chavismo reshuffled leadership. So the time is now for a last push for corruption money. It is that simple.

How can you score any success in front of such a negative environment? Unless survival on the edge of bankruptcy is considered a success. Note that the latest business climate studies put Venezuela dead last, even behind Syria.

That is why I can write already that 2015 has been a lost. That no matter what happens in the last quarter the negativity of the first three quarters cannot be overcome anymore. I feel exactly in the same mood as I felt in October 2014: a sad mood with the certitude that next year will be worse.


Economic electoral planning: institutional bachaqueo and printing money

The election date approaches. Whether these will be held is irrelevant, the regime needs to prepare for it no matter what.  From my sources I get the following tidbits as to how the regime is planning to distribute goodies to try to buy votes.


The "bachaqueo" is bringing some political dividends to the regime, at least from those who can actually profit from it. Bachaqueo for those late in the game is a Venezuelan variety of black market (1). Those that can stand in long lines because they are out of a job buy they share and resell part of it at significant markups. It becomes particularity lucrative when: 1) you belong to an information network from cashiers to truck drivers and storage personnel who can warn you that X will arrive at Z before the neighborhood hoi polloi knows about it, thus the bachaqueros are first in line before supplies disappear; 2) you know someone high ranked in the store or the Nazional Guards on duty to avoid riots and they let you get out with more than your share; 3) you belong to a network well organized with bus and motorbike drivers that can carry you fast from one line to another line so in one day you may be able to stand in line at 2 or 3 locations, and rack it in; and of course 4) you belong to a narco-military-mafia organization that do not even own a store and gives you a certain amount at mark up for you to mark it up further. (2)


The beauty of it all is that the Labor Law "reform" of Chavez to get reelected before he croaked is a major incentive for that line of business.  See, you cannot fire someone for multiple absences. If you try to, it is a long and tortuous process that in 95% of the time ends up with an expensive settlement. In fact today's practice is to call into the office to ask point blank the worker how much he wants to resign from his job. Certainly, you can discount from paycheck the missing day and the meal tickets, but what would a worker mind if s/he can make more in that day through bachaqueo? Which thus has become today the main cause of absenteeism, far above any epidemiological consideration.

Some of my clients, those with a significant payroll of say, more than 50, have observed an interesting arithmetic pattern. Say, you have 200 employees, of which 150 are workers whose paycheck is no more than twice the minimum wage.  In recent months you have discovered that absenteeism is at a steady 15%, EVERYDAY.  And never the same folks, of course. That is, e.g., you have in a single week missing, 26, 22, 38, 23 and 29. Everyday you have at least 22 folks missing, that is 15% of your labor force. Why?

Very simple. Workers have organized a network of absentee turns. No worker will be absent more than what the law "forgives". Sometimes you may even find out that, say, X worker is absent systematically every other Wednesday. And you may find out that the peak at 38 (25%) coincided with a food fair or a major arrival of goods at the market store next door. If it does not get worse than that it is because finger printing and stuff limit the number of people that can shop on a given day (never mind that the bachaquero needs to be able to pay for what s/he gets). Also, many business to ensure a minimum labor force for basic processes have established generous attendance bonus (I kid you not), so that workers will miss only when it is worth their while. Thus a fragile equilibrium exists which will break down anytime as scarcity becomes worse.

I trust the reader can figure out on its own how this affect productivity and costs in Venezuela.....

You may think that this is a conspiracy theory. Think again. Go to any ministry and the systematic absenteeism there is worse. Sometimes it is organized outright by the bosses who may even have shipped in some goods, in particular if linked with the military. From there to spread the habit more or less efficiently to private business is not far fetched. And the regime has gone out of its way to spread in time deliveries of scarce goods to create the illusion that things still arrive somewhat to the the shelves, you were just unlucky that day.

In other words the regime thinks it stands to gain something by promoting a bachaqueo network, not enough perhaps to compensate for the voters lost to the long lines, but a gain nevertheless where open and naked scarcity would cost more politically.

The other thing that I want to mention in passing is that from reliable sources I have learned that the regime is bringing in banknotes. Lots of freshly printed notes of 100, more than what is normally needed to replace the physically deteriorated bills. Those bills may actually be delivered in diverse areas of the country to avoid, I suppose, shipping and the like.

My guess is that they will be used to pay for the campaign and for direct cash payments wherever it is needed. Expect a tremendous surge of inflation next year as a consequence.

It also seems that the regime is trying to open, albeit, some partially made public works, such as a couple of metro stations in Caracas. That has happened in the past in Chavez campaigns, but this time after three years of nothing it is hoped for that opening even a single subway station, even if incomplete, may have a big impact. I doubt it, but that is not the point of this post, the point is that the regime is going to apply skinny populism but populism nevertheless. In the past they could raid, say, electronic stores. But all is empty. Thus fake income from bachaqueo, or a direct worthless cash advance, or a huge ceremony to open shit facilities is all that is at hand.

In addition of jailing opposition leaders; but that is another story.

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1) bachaco is the large tropical ant that eats everything on its wake and that laboriously carries huge loads on its back.

2) all courtesy, of course, from crazy price control schemes and currency arbitration (official 6.3, black market 700 to 1 USD; do the math).

The 400 question

As the Venezuelan currency is in an accelerating downward spiral the real question is not why such a thing is happening; the real question is why would one sell its US dollars for a currency that is becoming more worthless as days pass. I suppose that we could ask the ancillary question of who but we already know that one: the regime, the military, the corrupt "bolibourgeois", the drug launderers and assorted criminals. People with hard earned dollars do not invest them in Venezuela, at most they use them to pay bills they cannot help but pay.

So why sell dollars/euros for bolivars, even if your return rate is 420+ bolivars for one single USD?

There is nothing for sale in Venezuela. Nothing worth buying. All is imported so you would basically buy something that would be sold to you without guarantee at a comparable world price or at a price that is well overpriced. In bolivars nothing makes sense. But in USD they do not make much sense either. Even cars are now traded in US dollars in the black market and soon in the open one, with quite a mark up.

Buy real estate? Maybe. But what for? You cannot rent, you cannot put it to produce given the crisis. At best it is a very long term investment. The only reason for you to part of dollars this way is to launder them. And all the choice properties have long been sold or are not for sale as people holding them usually have the means to live on something else. Why would they sell they property in bolivares that they would have to go to the black market to trade for dollars right away? They would just make a direct arrangement to have a big chunk of it paid already in dollars.

The only explanation that makes some sort of sense in the current situation is that the regime is selling dollars to pay for its electoral campaign. It has nothing else to offer its voters but cash. By the time they realize that the cash they received is worthless it would be too late. Some inside the regime promote speculation so they can get a maximum of bang for the bug to pay the drag the vote in operation required at the end of the year.

As for the regime, see if they care about the damage that the latest bout of money crash will do tot he economy...  the more so that even the NYT is getting on Diosdado Cabello case even if rather meekly.

Sigh......

The Venezuelan Narco State is getting an international definition

The Wall Street Journal published yesterday the first comprehensive account on the multiple investigations in the USA on Venezuela's drug traffic links, and possible long term consequences of those. In Spanish here for free for those who do not have subscription in English. Short English Reuters note here. (1)
National Assembly President,
soon on the "most wanted list"?

Of course there is nothing new here for those who have been following closely Venezuela here. Already ABC in Spain has run into trouble for accusing Diosdado Cabello to be the head of the main drug cartel of Venezuela. What is noteworthy in the WSJ work of Cordoba and Forero is the compilation nature of the thing, of not unnecessarily stressing the role of Cabello. The implications are frightening: the tentacles of drug trafficking that Chavez allowed go much, much deeper than what anyone may suspect, even today.

Because let us all be clear about one thing: this has happened because Hugo Chavez, the hero of the left, has allowed for it to happen, has encouraged it to happen. Diosdado did not come out of thin air. That maybe he became too strong for Chavez to control is another story, but Diosdado Cabello is a Chavez creation, just one of the cogs in the drug machinery that Chavez set up to help the FARC against Uribe. And the cogs are many, including noteworthy high ranking pieces like current Aragua state governor.

But what is the most worrisome line in the whole piece is the quotation from someone who knows Cabello from afar. Julio Rodriguez, a retired Colonel who was Cabello classmate or something, qualifies him as a "kamikaze", "someone who will never surrender".  In other words, Diosdado Cabello will take down with him as many as he needs to take down. He will take the country down with him if he needs to.

Thus, even if the primary elections results of yesterday were a very positive sign for the opposition, even if chavismo sent out its loud mouth pieces to vilely trash them the best they could, that is not the issue. The issue is the nature of the beast true civilians in Venezuela are facing.

At least we can take some solace in the comfort that after ABC in Spain, the WSJ piece of yesterday (front page today) will not allow for international public opinion to look the other way anymore. Diosdado Cabello may be able to close the last information outlets in Venezuela but that will only confirm what these newspapers have been writing and making public. Venezuela IS the NEWEST NARCO STATE and as such Venezuela is now a major problem for the west, just as northern Mexico is, just as Colombia was. Just keep in mind what the drug war of Northern Mexico is costing, what Uribe and the US had to spend to control Colombia and you will know what will have to be done about Venezuela if international pressure does not grow faster. In particular from the rest of Latin America which are going to be the first victims, by the way. But possibly drug traffic money is also reaching there deeper than what we may already suspect.

PS: the strangle hold on remaining "free" Venezuelan media can be seen on Google news which has become nearly useless. With all the state media supplemented with allied stuff like Cuba's Prensa Latina, the Google page on Venezuela is crowded with favorable news for the regime and one needs to scratch hard to find more critical coverage unless foreign newspapers make headlines out of Venezuelan news.  Well, today it is such a day where regime sponsored media cannot overcome bad press as seen out of this screen shot at 1 PM Europe time.


In spite of all regime set ups, the investigations on Diosdado is number one main news leaving in second propaganda "news" on food distribution (100,000 tons, yeah , right) and how young couples benefit from new housing (yeah, right, as long as they have the right red connections).

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1) Is it necessary to remind readers that investigations on crime in the US are independent from the executive branch as there is separation of powers and that the intervention of this last one is reserved strictly on actions that may be taken according to national interests?

The money is mine and I'll do what I want to do with it (and, by the way, there is none left)

When I wrote this morning post I did not realize that tonight I would be writing the same one but from a different angle. That is, materially not the same at all, but philosophically, so to speak, they are like two drops.
He is taking away your credit card

My point this morning was that the presence of CNE's head Tibisay at a political event Wednesday to "validate" 10 million signatures obtained though coercion meant that the opposition could dream on winning future legislative elections, the regime could not care less. There are alternative ways to legislate or annul newly elected representatives through, say, popular will expression through "certified" signatures of the "El Pueblo". After all, if Obama and the OAS have nothing to object of the signatures this week end, why should they object to future signatures?

Strong with that success, the regime forged ahead and announced today that travel money would be reduced to almost nothing, and that in addition it would be reserved only to those that are already in agreement with the regime.  It may not look quite like it on the surface but that is the way it is heading. Again, as is the case this morning, the point is not whether there are elections. Today is not whether there is money in the coffers: whatever is there is for the regime. Period.


Let's rewind a little. In what is perhaps the second worst aspect of Chavez populism (the top being, of course, gas subsidies) travel has been heavily subsidized by the regime since currency control was established in 2003. I suppose that it was not the intention at first. I suppose that for a while the regime thought it was a way it could win the good graces of enough middle class voters to make a difference, It probably became a way to quiet down the middle class, away from street protest. Eventually the regime became hostage of its own system when its own bureaucratically created middle class got used to travel and trade currency for profit, the infamous "raspa cupos". What was the amount of the subsidy? No way to tell for sure, but it started to go down three years ago. Subsidized airline tickets were the first to go. The regime defaulted on the money owed the airlines and now we have less than half of the offering of two years ago, and tickets have to be bought in foreign currency, your Venezuelan Bs. are not good, even for Venezuelan airlines.

The current subsidy? A tweet exchange I had with my colleague Miguel is as good as anything you can find: 20 billion for gas, 4 billion for travel expense.



Today by reducing the allocated travel expenses (3000 USD a year to travel to Europe to 2000, much less to the Americas) and making it more difficult to get the regime may save an extra 2-3 billion dollars. At what cost?

With that amount the regime does not solve anything, it gains maybe a month or two before default. The regime would solve more problems by increasing gas price just enough so that demands decreases enough to stop expensive imports (note: just forcing people to tune up their engines and drive in more useful ways could lower import gas bills by 10% just like that).

People that need to travel more than once a year have long ago organized themselves to travel in foreign currency. The middle class that cannot travel anymore had long ago stopped voting for chavismo if they ever did. The political cost here comes from the chavista bureaucratic middle class that was led to believe that foreign travel had become a right. Note: this particular aspect had always irked me a lot and got me very nasty looks when I reminded folks that before Chavez, as it is still the case in other countries around the world, if you wanted to travel you needed to save for a few years, that few were those that could afford yearly travels and fewer were those who could afford yearly shopping sprees in a foreign country. But I suppose that the Venezuelan middle class got the government it deserved...

But all of these in the ends are mere details. What really matters today is not whether you get 300 or 700 bahts to travel to Podunk.

What matters here is the brashness of the whole thing.

First, the announcement was rather unexpected. No rumors, for once, occurred. Which proves you that most rumors are deliberately seeded by the regime....

Second, the brutality of the measure, even for someone like me who had advocated for years that if travel control expenses should exist it should not be on the quantity but on the exchange rate. That is, it makes more sense for business people to have 20,000 travel money at 190 than 2,000 at 15. From my last business trip in Europe last fall, I know that you cannot travel for business in Germany for less than 200 USD a day. You just cannot. Unless you do not even treat your customer to a cup of coffee, you stay in flea bag hotels, eat german sausages from seedy street carts, hitch hike to the banhoff stations, and the like. In other words, unless you look like a pauper and then no one will want to do business with you. In short, the extremity of the measure is so ridiculous that we would actually be better off by eliminating it and legalizing black market. Because that is what is going to happen, we are all going to have to go to the black market for all our serious travel needs. By the way, this one has already digested it all, SIMADI and whatever, thus basically unmoved today.

Third the cynicism of the agent. The minister,  Marco Torres, that announces that 30% of our meager travel allotment is taken away is none other than the one that presided the bank that deposited 12 billion dollars in a Switzerland account of the HSBC in 2007. Maybe there was no wrongdoing but to date I am not aware of the publication of any statement account justifying when were these funds deposited and where did they go before these accounts were closed a year later. The guy goes as far as saying that these new measures ensure "the correct use" of currency. So, the regime was not able to ensure correct use before? Orwell...

And fourth, and the worst, is the added brutality that if you want to have access to the remaining 2000 dollars you have left to go to Europe you will need to open an account in a state bank and ask for the state to grant you a credit card. That is, the credit card that you earned with your good name, your good credit habits, your prompt payments, in real bank of the private sector, is worthless outside of Venezuela. Now your credit is worthy only of a state bank, a bank owned and directed by the regime, decides that you are worthy of it. And what about if the Tascon list is used? What about if the sales representative decides to ask you whether you signed against Obama?

This is what today's announcement really means. Now, you only get to travel if you play nice, if you cozy tot he regime. That is that. Forget about elections, Forget about Human Rights, If you want anything you better join fast the ranks of Maduro,

Oh, and by the way, we are broke, we had to do that. So from now on whatever little bit of money becomes available here and there is only for corrupt military who are going to take turns in front of Marco Torres office. You know, fascism style, the state money is my money.

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PS: written while I was listening over and over to Faure's Requiem and drinking from my one before last bottle of Creme de Cassis.

Bloomberg goes to the core of US sanctions to Venezuelan Officials

I was planning on translating the earlier post in Spanish over Obama's sanctions and the regime's reply. But the core of that entry was the message that the US sent to the rest of LatAm and Bloomberg makes a superb article on that. I certainly could not do better and it shows you that outside of the spineless opposition and brain dead but vicious chavismo there are people that clearly can see the bigger issues. Please read : Obama's wake up call to Venezuela's neighbors.ailities

There is only one thing I need to add, for the sake of avoiding extra posts.


Maduro last night announced yet another enabling law.  I have written often on the different enabling laws that have happened since Chavez came to office. NONE OF THEM has brought any good to the country, ALL OF THEM have ended up concentrating more power, more abuse capacities in the hands of the regime leadership. This new one termed something like "enabling law against imperialism" was under work for a long time and Obama's sanctions have ONLY affected the calendar for its publications. Maduro announced last night that he would request that new enabling law, a law that will be presented TODAY. That is, it was written and minor editing as to title, date and excuses were required for publication.

The regime feels that losing the control of the National Assembly in the next election is an almost certainty. To prepare for this eventuality they already packed last year all public powers with enablers of the regime, they started jailing and now they are starting to execute students that protest a tad too loud for the regime's delicate ears. And other measures are in preparation such as enabling laws that will probably include penal sanctions that will ease up the destitution of Assembly representatives as needed.

Some people should stop moaning that Obama is unnecessarily enervating the regime. I say grow up! This is a dictatorship! Get a grip! It does not matter when or how, a dictatorship by definition never takes on criticism. And the Venezuela which also double as a narco state is even less able to understand reason and logic.

Why is the regime jailing private enterprise owners (and this blogger at risk).

There is a very simple answer for that: the regime needs a scapegoat that pays with its hardcore, Luddite, take no hostage, resentful base. The question would be more interesting if worded differently: why does it pay to jail a few business owners?


The answer to this question is a little bit longer but not very complicated. The reason can be found in 40 years of populism light followed by 15 of populism hard. In a country that has been told that "we are rich" and that the problem is that "wealth is not redistributed as it should" you do create a sense of entitlement that can easily be turned against private enterprise. I remember as a kid how COPEI used the term acaparadeco in the 1973 campaign against Carlos Andres Perez first election. Acaparadeco is a play on words with acaparador (hoarder) and adeco (follower of AD political party). The message was clear, seedy business allied with Adecos to make the people suffer scarcities. As you can see, chavismo has invented NOTHING, just strung it out to the limit.

To this you must add that a lot in the business system of Venezuela were only in there for the money, amassing in a hurry what they could to run away to Miami or somewhere to live the grand life. That this pattern is repeated and magnified under chavismo with its bolibourgoeis, or that many business people are decent, socially conscious folks (the Polar people, to name one) does not matter. In the deep recesses of the hoi polloi mindset there is a certain like of the private enterprise as the lone reliable provider of jobs and goods but a deep resentment of the owners. That dissociation has always existed, with more or less intensity, and no government has ever tried to limit it as for populism such beliefs are a political godsend.

What differentiates chavismo from a past attitude that probably dates from colonial times is that as an extreme populist and commie inspired system the regime has a special vindictiveness against private enterprise owners and even more against those that make the regime look particularly bad or incompetent. The harassment of giant agribusiness Polar is a text book case, forcing Lorenzo Mendoza, its chairman, to challenge the regime to concede administration of its nationalized mills so he would put them to produce. Suddenly the regime stopped its attacks for a while but they are back at it.

The two recent public cases are the owners of Farmatodo and Dia a Dia. Both chains had managed to reach popular sectors and be successful there while the distribution of medicine and food through the state system of Mercal and PDVAL was failing more and more.  Dia a Dia was a supermarket specializing in popular areas, small stores, no storage area to avoid crime. It had a limited and fast rotating inventory and was thoroughly monitored by the regime. Hence, that Dia a Dia provided reasonable service so close to the chavista electoral base was just too much. Dia a Dia had to go, its inventory seized and his managers sent to jail for gouging, speculation, hoarding and what not.

Farmatodo is not as clear cut a case as it does not go deep into popular areas. But it is close and it had become in a way the fancy store where lower middle class go to get a treat. Farmatodo was a first world experience in Venezuela, clean, neat, organized, usually well stacked. All social classes could shop there together getting from shampoo to medicine. Since there is major scarcity of shampoo, soap and other persona hygiene products, someone had to pay the political costs. Owners and management were summoned to a store on a week end. They complied freely and ended up in jail anyway. Never mind that a few weeks earlier Farmatodo had agreed to cooperate with the regime by putting organized rationing and finger printing machines per regime's wishes.

Since then things have not improved. I am privy to information that I cannot reveal because I cannot harm the parties, and I could place myself at risk. But I know of the people that have been arrested for questioning at their exit from Miraflores Palace after a meeting that they attended after summoning.

I know of a given minister, a particularly vulgar and uncouth general, who revels at these meetings at Miraflores threatening his "guests" of "ponerle los ganchos a la salida", arrest the guest at the door has he has already done. In these meetings the regime demands but offers no concession, no dollars to pay the debt, no price increase to stop the losses that food and medicine producers are forced to accept because of price control. But I also know that in some smaller meetings some of the business owners have challenged the military chair (it is almost invariably a military) to expropriate them once and for all, that they do not care but will start selling at whatever price they need to sell. And in at least one case I know of they did get a price increase, albeit insufficient.

I have also been told to pack an overnight bag and have a safe haven for a couple of nights if I need to do so. Now, even though I was told that in all seriousness I am not complying. First, even if associate in a food business we are low on the priorities of the regime at this time. Also, I am more likely to get arrested for this blog rather than any commercial activities. But I have been told and this by itself reflect the mood of the country as well as possible.

There is indeed an economic war waged, and I can guarantee that it has come from the regime and it is directed at defenseless people like my colleagues and me. We have no weapons and the judicial system is stacked against us from corrupt judges to regulations that these days cannot be met no matter how hard one tries. We are thus great fodder for the regime continued need for bread and circus. More circus these days...